380: Blocker or Blueprint? India on the World Stage

[15:28] Manjeev Singh Puri

We recognize domestically that climate is a vulnerability that we have. We have no choice. It is something which is imperative we have to tackle in the country. So it's not just fossil fuels, it's the whole adaptation cycle. Come on, we have some of our largest cities, Bombay, Chennai, Calcutta, they're all on the seaside. We may face glacial melts. So adaptation is not just a talk shop for us. We have no choice.

[15:54] Tom Rivett-Carnac

A few days later, a very different person argues a similar case from a different perspective. Harjeet Singh and I have been friends for years. He's worked on this for more than 20 years. He runs Global Engagement for a campaign to end fossil fuels. I put the contradiction to him. India has built more clean power than almost anybody. It's also burning more coal than ever.

[16:16] Harjeet Singh

We need to understand, Tom, the challenges that we have. We're talking about 1.4 billion people who still do not have access to adequate energy. We are making that shift and that's how it's remarkable that government now has invested much more in renewable energy and that's why 52% is now non-fossil fuel sources. But the consumption is going up across the board as we make sure that people have access to energy. Our industrialization is also picking up because we need to provide jobs to people.

[16:45] Tom Rivett-Carnac

No country has ever completely moved a grid or an economy of this size off fossil fuels. Nobody has shown India how this is done at this scale and on this timetable.

[16:55] Harjeet Singh

Look at India's fair share globally. India is doing remarkably well. In fact, way more than its fair share.

[17:03] Tom Rivett-Carnac

It is hard to argue with that point from Harjeet. He is right. And since India met its 2030 target for non-fossil capacity five years early, it has since filed a new set of commitments. Emissions intensity down 47% by 2035, non-fossil capacity up to 60%. Given its track record, we can take those commitments very seriously. Meanwhile, the rich world has in some ways been going the other way. The EU has weakened its car rules. New Zealand has cut its methane target roughly in half. And the less said about the policies of the United States government, the better.

[17:39] Harjeet Singh

Internationally, I would say India is doing very well. However, as a citizen, we do raise challenges when it comes to air pollution, because it's affecting us, because we are still not moving fast enough towards renewable or cleaner options to keep the air clean. So we need to make sure that our development is greener and cleaner. Our industrialisation is also picking up because we need to provide jobs to people. So the proportion is increasing, but the quantum of coal use continues to go up. And that's where we need to understand even the technology gap. With renewable energy, which is an intermittent source, you still need to invest more in storage and battery options. The technology is not yet there, and we have not seen sufficient investments and finance coming from the West. So India is using most of its own resources. What India needs is about $2.5 trillion between now and 2030 to implement its climate action plans. So the fact is India is on its own, and India is not relying heavily on oil and gas, what it has, it's coal, which is also a part of colonial legacy that it has. So it is dependent on it. So of course, as citizens, we would like our country to move away from it as fast as possible, but we have to talk about a just transition, because it's not just about replacing an energy source, it's also about looking at jobs. We are talking about 20 million people dependent on coal in Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Odisha alone, just three states. So if these states who are dependent on mining are going to lose that economic activity and finance, what is going to replace it? So all those investments are required from a long-term perspective, and that's where international finance becomes extremely important. But the fact is that the West did not understand India's needs. Before the Paris Agreement, we were talking about 200 million people not having access to electricity. We were talking about access to finance. We were talking about development deficit. Nobody was listening. So governments successively in India have seen that they're not getting adequate support from the international community, rather only questions. And blame game. That's why India has become very sensitive to some of these things. There's also a technology issue because when we talk about coal, the fact is that's the only thing that provides what we call baseload to provide electricity continuously because you can't rely on renewable energy. So there is a challenge of energy security and that's why when India only got pressure and no finance, no support in terms of technology, then it became such a sensitive national security issue that they don't want anybody to talk about it.

[20:29] Tom Rivett-Carnac

Harjeet campaigns for a treaty to end fossil fuels and he's just spent a minute explaining why his own government won't let anyone discuss one of them. He isn't defending that, but he's telling me how it got that way. His account is that this is about 20 years of being told what to do by people who never sent the money or the technology. Coal stopped being an energy question and became a sovereignty question. Two things in particular have affected the perception that people have about India in the international climate talks. One is illustrated by that famous night in Glasgow when it was India's environment minister who read out the change from phasing coal out to phasing it down.

[21:11] Bhupender Yadav

Including escalating effort to phase down unabated coal power and...

[21:18] Tom Rivett-Carnac

It's moments like this that have positioned India to many as a blocker of climate progress at the UN. The other is what's been happening to people who campaign on climate inside India.

[21:30] News Clip

Indian politicians and activists are condemning the arrest of a climate campaigner with ties to Sweden's Greta Thunberg. 22-year-old Disha Ravi, a leader of the Indian Arm of Thunberg's Fridays for Future movement, is accused of helping edit and distribute an online document from Thunberg in support of the ongoing protest by farmers across the country.

[21:53] Tom Rivett-Carnac

These two facts seem like they're about separate things, but both come back to the same thing, a government that doesn't like to be told what to do. Nevertheless, civil society in India has a long history of important achievements. The Right to Information Act came out of a campaign run from outside the government. So did the Right to Education Act. The Employment Guarantee Scheme came from decades of organizing by farmers and village groups and the school meals program now feeds about 120 million children.

[22:21] Harjeet Singh

In the past, you talk about mid-day meal schemes, which was championed by civil society, 120 million children are actually getting mid-day meals. So look at the scale of impact. It's not just about doing some light touch advocacy and only protesting. It's concrete mechanisms, right to work. The Employment Guarantee Scheme that we now see in India, it's a result of decades of work by the grassroots movements and farmers.

[22:49] Tom Rivett-Carnac

So why the government resistance we're currently seeing? Dia Mirza gave me an example.

[22:54] Dia Mirza

Recently we had the Chief Justice of India make a statement, which was hurtful. He said, you know, every time we're trying to build an infrastructure project, the green lobby shows up and, you know, is there nothing that can be done without the green lobby interfering or, you know, causing delays? And we wrote to him. We wrote to him with a lot of love and respect and we said, this is not right. You can't be the Chief Justice of a country and say this, because the green lobby is not a lobby. These are mothers, these are fathers, these are children, these are people who care and are acting from a place of love and care and compassion. You should be supporting this work.

[23:46] Tom Rivett-Carnac

The official view is this. In 2014, India's intelligence bureau sent the Prime Minister's office a report. Foreign-funded groups campaigning against coal and mining, it said, were running a systematic campaign on behalf of outside interests and were a threat to national economic security. Greenpeace India lost its funding license the following year. I knew before I went that people who do this work in India have been having a hard time of it recently. And this affects people like Harjeet. In January this year, investigators from India's Enforcement Directorate raided Harjeet's home and offices, as well as those of two of his colleagues. They alleged that the organisation he founded with his wife had taken foreign money to campaign against fossil fuels and therefore against India's energy security. He was arrested and released on bail. The story was covered in the international media. He has called the allegations baseless, biased and misleading. Notably, there has since been no charge sheet. Harjeet tells us he's been working and travelling normally. His view is that this confirms that there was nothing in the allegations. Despite his own experiences, he's keen to point out this isn't a uniquely Indian problem.

[24:59] Harjeet Singh

We have seen civil society space shrinking around the world. And we see the same thing happening in India. Countries who used to champion that, the UK or Australia or the US, look at what's happening. And the kind of economic pressures that we are seeing, governments are becoming more and more inward looking and we see the same thing. And that's where we as civil society in India are raising voice, we are fighting for our space.

[25:25] Tom Rivett-Carnac

At this critical moment for climate change, functioning civil society sectors that can push governments to be more ambitious are critical in every country. India is not alone in trying to root out foreign interference in its civil society sector and it's certainly true in many countries in the West. Nevertheless, this is an area that is going to be crucial for the coming years. I put this to the ambassador. This government wants to be a leader in India on climate, is projecting that around the world. The way that it is operating domestically, there have been many NGO licenses canceled, there has been a different approach to the civil society sector. How do those two things coexist?

[26:03] Manjeev Singh Puri

In my understanding, somebody has asked me that and several of those people are friends of mine. I want to be very clear on one thing. The government of India is committed to climate goals, resilience, sustainability, et cetera. That should be completely not be a matter of debate at all. You yourself started off by saying we have met our commitments five years in advance. We know that many people will turn around and say you should take more commitments and I'm sure we will. We are part of it. We have done enough on solar energy. I don't think individual licenses and things like that, which are matters of obtaining as, you know, working as per the law is concerned. I am in no position to comment on individual cases. I don't know. But is the few cases that you talk about, are they different from, let me say, enforcement action by the government on other things that are happening? I don't think so. I don't believe so either. And so therefore, I think these are completely de-linked matters. But at the end of the day, there is the judiciary, there is the system. You appeal. I'm sure there'll be exoneration if you have been true to the letter and the spirit of the law.

[27:09] Tom Rivett-Carnac

So with all of this in mind, what's happening in the country, how it's responding to changes, the steps forward and the steps back, what is the role that India is playing and can play in the multilateral process? India has more reason than most to give up on it. It was promised money that came late and mostly as debt. It was pushed to go faster by countries who themselves ended up going slower. It gets called a blocker by people who've missed their own targets. So does India still want a world that is based on international rules, consensus and collective action? The ambassador does not see an alternative.

[27:43] Manjeev Singh Puri

I do believe very strongly that yes, we should reform, we should do many things there. But let's be clear in one thing. We need to collaborate globally. We need to try and see what we can do in terms of collaborative action. And some of it demands and requires not just voluntary collaboration, but at least some kind of direction setting trends, commitments, etc. that people take because it pushes you. Otherwise, it will not be a game of you have a little bit of say, I have some say, everybody meets together. It would literally be a case of I'm dictating this, you take it or you leave it. For me, the much more interesting thing, what we will do in India, we will do ourselves. Much more interesting is what can we get the world and what can the world do?

[28:34] Tom Rivett-Carnac

So Christiana, we've come to the end of this series, which has been an enormous privilege for me to put these together. I mean, it was wonderful to spend a couple of weeks with you.

[28:41] Christiana Figueres

Well, you and the team did a brilliant job.

[28:43] Tom Rivett-Carnac

I was very happy to play my small role.

[28:45] News Clip

Great job, all of you. The team did an amazing job.

[28:48] Bhupender Yadav

Thank you, Christiana.

[28:52] Tom Rivett-Carnac

Thank you very much.

[28:52] Christiana Figueres

Would you like to take another three and I'll just go on vacation during three weeks?

[28:56] Tom Rivett-Carnac

Oh, no. The next two are on you, yeah. But it just gives us a moment maybe to just take a pause at the end and maybe reflect back on these three episodes. India is obviously a country that is changing incredibly fast. It's going to be a very different place in 10, 15 years. Maybe I can just ask you, first of all, as you listen to these episodes, what struck you about the story of India where it is at the moment?

[29:20] Christiana Figueres

What strikes me is the importance of not going down the path of two realities that cancel each other out. Because India really is walking down two realities and doing it very intentionally. Right? They are building themselves up to be a renewable energy and a clean energy, if you want to include nuclear, which is very important in India. So they're building themselves up further to be a clean energy superpower. But they're also incredibly dependent on coal. And they will continue to be one of the largest consumers of coal.

[30:06] Tom Rivett-Carnac

Often very dirty coal.

[30:08] Christiana Figueres

Very dirty coal, at least until 2030. So what I think is fascinating and very helpful about India is it sort of smacks us in the face of the black-white thinking that we usually have. Everybody has to reduce their emissions right away. Yes, that is true. That is what science says. We're not going to argue about it. And the reality on the ground is very different. And it's not like they're doing it in the back room and hiding it from the world. No, they're very, very clear about the fact that they need to protect their coal. Let's remember what they did about the language, right? It was India.

[30:49] Tom Rivett-Carnac

Phased down, not phased out.

[30:50] Christiana Figueres

Yeah, it was them. It was them who went up there and they did it in front of all the cameras, in front of everyone. There is nothing hidden about that. It smacks us in the face in the sense of kidding us off our high horse of there is only one way to do this. Now, the problem that that brings them, of course, is that there is a whole host of developing countries, let's say, for example, the most vulnerable countries, the small island states, the Pacific island states, that can't accept this because their survival is at stake. So that's understandable also. It's a kaleidoscope that, depending on how you focus, you see realities, all of which are justified. The fact that the small island states get furious with India because they'll continue to burn coal, understandable. They're fighting for their survival. The fact that India defends coal, understandable. They still have millions of people in poverty that they can only reach with coal. So it's a lesson in non-judgmental thinking. That's what it is.

[32:01] Tom Rivett-Carnac

I so agree with you. And what's interesting is, I traveled quite a bit in India years ago, and that truth, I think, was present then. But both have accelerated to such a degree. So actually, these two realities have been driving apart from each other. The emissions went up last year. The air pollution is amongst the worst in the world. And yet, over 50% installed capacity of non-fossil sources. That's an amazing achievement. As we say, we're not used to this way of thinking, but two things that appear to be dichotomous can be true at the same time.

[32:29] Christiana Figueres

Yeah, and they are.

[32:30] Tom Rivett-Carnac

And they are. I would bring just a slightly different one from having been there. And I think it's a very difficult country to have lots of top-down strategies. And when you spend time in the country, and many listeners will have spent far more time than I have there, the sort of instinct towards entrepreneurial thinking and just having a go at running at things is actually very intoxicating. I come from Western Europe where we're quite familiar with saying, no, you can't do that. That's not possible. And you get quite stuck in new ideas. In India, it's like I remember the US some years ago, this sense of yes, let's run at that. Let's do it. Let's have a go. And I think that's where many of the breakthroughs are likely to come from in the coming years rather than trying to implement centralized control.

[33:13] Christiana Figueres

Totally. And in the middle of that, the states, Tom, those states are so powerful, so powerful, and so independent, and they have many of their own policies that the national government cannot touch. I mean, whenever they do something as a nation, it's pretty impressive because they have to bring all of this.

[33:32] Tom Rivett-Carnac

Bring everyone together. So let's talk a little bit about how India is likely to see its role on the world stage going forward. It's playing an increasingly prominent role, yes, in global affairs, but also amongst South-South cooperation, other countries all around the world who are also going through this rapid development. Now China has taken the route via Belt and Road of very front foot international development partnerships all around the world. How do you think India sees its evolving role in the coming decades as it emerges more and more?

[34:03] Christiana Figueres

Well, I don't think they will have the equivalent of the Belt and Road, right, because they're not investing in infrastructure in other countries. So I think their influence is going to be perhaps a softer type influence, really bringing these two realities that we're talking about, bringing them to the fore and thereby opening the space for many other countries to be courageous enough to also live up to that. And I would say reinterpreting what development is right now, I would say the world really thinks about development and the logic and the financial flows of development are largely Western logic. So I think India is really picking up the torch to say, wait a second, we're going to define what development is. Don't tell us what development is. I would argue that the countries in the Northern atmosphere determined what development is, largely out of the Industrial Revolution. What is development for last century? And the South having to pay a huge price for the development of last century, as we know. But for this century, I would argue that these countries are getting ready to self-define what development is.

[35:24] Tom Rivett-Carnac

And I'd love to just ask you to go one level deeper on that, because I mean, it looks like from the outside that India, at least the Indian government's view of what development is, includes quite a bit of repression of civil society groups. It includes quite a bit of restricting of civil liberties when people aren't advancing views that are consistent with the government's perspective. So what you say may very well be the case, but there will be light and shade within that from a perspective of civil liberties of the citizens. How would you think about that?

[35:56] Christiana Figueres

Any more light and shade than we have in the US right now?

[35:59] Tom Rivett-Carnac

No, just different. No, you're right. Of course.

[36:01] News Clip

100%.

[36:01] Tom Rivett-Carnac

Yeah. Yeah.

[36:03] News Clip

We can't cast aspersions, right?

[36:04] Tom Rivett-Carnac

And it's not our business as it's... I mean, we certainly do cast aspersions in the US. That's a separate issue. But what you would say generally is, as a citizen of one country, you accept you can't control what happens in another. Is that the right perspective?

[36:16] Christiana Figueres

You know, I sit on two chairs about that because my moral heart, right, wants to say, no, no, no, no, you can't, you know, just trample over human rights and civil liberties is just... That's not what is right. On the other hand, my logical part says, doesn't every country have the right to decide that?

[36:35] Tom Rivett-Carnac

And what are you going to do about it?

[36:36] Christiana Figueres

What are we going to do about it? That's very sad, but probably realistic.

[36:41] Tom Rivett-Carnac

So to just wrap this up, India is a country that has had been a very big part, I think, of your negotiating life. They've played a consequential role in the moments of break that you've delivered. They're going to play a fundamentally important part of creating the future, good or bad, and that is being shaped by the Indians themselves as it should be. Where does all of this leave you as we come to the end of this episode? Do you feel hopeful about it?

[37:03] Christiana Figueres

I feel very hopeful about it because I just think, it's about time that the South decides on their destiny, right? And on what they want to do. It's about time. And the fact that they're moving into that leadership and not ceding it only to China. Because that is our very simplistic thinking, says, okay, it's China that's doing this, their ecological civilization and whatnot. But India is just right up there. They're not ceding any space to China. And they're saying, like, no, we also have something to say about what fair, equitable development is, and is going to be on our turf and our ground. Good on them.

[37:46] Tom Rivett-Carnac

Good on them. It feels really exciting to see an India that's increasingly confident of herself. And I think that within that, there is an unbelievable spirit of entrepreneurialism, as we said, and dynamism and opportunity. And I think the things that are being achieved are remarkable. And it's in that really creative, interesting middle ground where so much is unformed. You know, what is the Indian model of development? What are the priorities that get put in place? How do resources get allocated? What is the objective of our society? I found it really intoxicating to witness all of that. And I have huge optimism that the people of India will make really good choices. And I think there's a lot of jeopardy. I think that the coming years are going to determine a lot because there's a lot stacked against India as well. Still a lot of inequality. There's a lot of structural bureaucracy and challenges. There's a lot of baked in issues around pollution. And so sorting that stuff out takes time. But I actually think that the country is in a remarkable place to show a different pathway of solving these problems. China solves things in one way, as we know. And India doesn't always like to be compared to China. India is doing this in a more messy, a more emergent, a more entrepreneurial, a more creative, a more Indian way. You know, we're kind of out of ideas in many ways in the West. Model of development is so baked in. Economic growth models are so baked in. A lot of that has been imported in India. But I also heard a lot of people talking about a different point of life, a different objective, a different way we want to live. I actually feel like in 50 years, we will look back and feel like many of the solutions, not only the technological solutions, but the how do we want to live and how do we prioritize things, will have come from India.

[39:37] Christiana Figueres

Beautiful. Thank you, Tom.

[39:39] Tom Rivett-Carnac

Thanks. Thank you so much for listening to this series, and I'll leave you with the voices of the people who joined us throughout.

[39:46] News Clip

India has a tremendous capacity for change, for innovation, for growth, and for leading the future.

[39:54] News Clip

People love to be a part of the solution. They want to know that they're not just talking about the problem, but they can do something in their own lives.

[40:01] News Clip

The cost of inaction is much more than the cost of action. When there is a demand from the bottom, the appropriate action will come.

[40:13] Dia Mirza

We can start at home, we can start in our own lives, we can start in our neighborhoods, we can start in our cities, and it's happening. Not as much as I would want, and not as fast as I would want it, but it's happening, it's all underway.