Brazil can lead the world at COP30

Yes, 2025 has been a difficult year. But if any country can deliver what is needed at COP30, it is Brazil.

The task before the Brazilian presidency goes beyond even the most challenging moments in the 30-year history of the UN climate process. This year’s summit in Belém will not only test the durability of the Paris Agreement, now a decade old—it will test whether the world can still come together to confront global threats at a time of fracture and distrust.

A dangerous narrative

Across many nations, including Brazil, public debate on climate has been hijacked by those claiming it is not climate change that threatens people most dearly, but climate action. This false narrative is gaining traction even as floods, droughts, fires, and rising seas accelerate before our eyes. Scientific consensus on approaching planetary tipping points has never been clearer—yet the voices of delay insist on focusing attention not on impacts but on the costs of solutions.

At the same time, the broader context for COP30 is daunting. The summit will take place against a backdrop of open assaults on the multilateral order that has defined global cooperation since the mid-20th century. COP30 will therefore have to do more than finalize a text; it will need to demonstrate that collaboration across borders is possible—and indeed indispensable—even amid polarized geopolitics.

Beyond negotiation

There is also the urgent need to shift the international climate process itself. For three decades, negotiations have been the centerpiece. Now, as the science grows more urgent and the solutions more available, the task is not only to agree on frameworks but to accelerate real action on the ground. No wonder many observers describe President Lula’s challenge this November as near impossible.

But it is not impossible.

The Paris effect

Ten years on, the Paris Agreement is working. Its ripple effects have reshaped global energy policies, reoriented capital flows, and unleashed a technological revolution. The “Paris effect” has become so powerful that it now cuts through geopolitical complexities: countries across the globe are deploying clean power not because it is fashionable but because it is cheaper, more secure, and more abundant than fossil alternatives.

Brazil has a decisive tailwind: the sheer superiority of clean technology solutions. Renewable energy is no longer a niche—it is now the foundation of a new economy.

The old fossil economy, which has driven both prosperity and planetary damage, is being squeezed on all fronts.

Economically: Nine out of ten renewable projects are cheaper than fossil competitors. Clean power is eating into the profit margins of oil and gas companies. In the Global South, nations are leapfrogging directly to solar and wind, often faster than statistics can track. Even in the United States, under an administration friendlier to fossil fuels, oil companies are shedding jobs, while 99.7 percent of new power that came online in July was clean.

Legally: The historic advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice this July set new grounds for accountability, affirming that states have obligations to act on climate change. This ruling will increase scrutiny of both existing and proposed fossil fuel projects.

Politically: Despite the noise, public support for climate action remains high worldwide. Escalating impacts are steadily eroding the social license of fossil fuels and strengthening the mandate for a clean transition.

Brazil’s opportunity

This convergence of pressures—economic, legal, and political—creates a unique opportunity for Brazil. The Belém COP can be remembered as the moment when international climate diplomacy shifted decisively from promises to delivery.

Brazil has every reason to lead. It is already a global clean-energy leader, blessed with abundant hydro, wind, and solar resources. It is the guardian of the Amazon, whose health is essential for stabilizing the climate. It is home to the Rio Conventions, which laid the groundwork for modern environmental diplomacy. And it enjoys a level of trust across the Global South, including within the BRICS, that few other nations can claim.

COP30 offers Brazil the chance to throw its political weight fully behind the momentum of clean technologies and to position itself as a champion of a new economic order led by the Global South. Doing so would not only strengthen international ambition but also generate political momentum at home, turning Belém into the “people’s COP.”

What must be achieved

To be credible, Belém must deliver further clarity on how and when the world will “transition away from fossil fuels”—a commitment first made in Dubai at COP28. Anything less would squander the progress of the last decade and betray the escalating expectations of citizens worldwide.

The ICJ ruling underscored that countries “have a duty to cooperate with each other” in the face of the climate emergency. COP30 is the moment to show that this duty can be honored in practice, even amid the adversarial currents of international politics.

Brazil’s moment

Few countries possess the skill, influence, and credibility required to pull this off. Brazil does. With its unparalleled diplomatic network, its proven ability to bridge divides, and the tailwind of the renewable revolution, Brazil is uniquely positioned to deliver what the world so urgently needs: proof that multilateral action on climate can succeed, even in the toughest of times.

2025 has been a difficult year. But difficulty is not destiny. In November, Brazil can demonstrate that, in the face of cascading crises, cooperation and courage still hold power. And that would make COP30 not only a turning point for climate diplomacy, but a turning point for the world.