83: How Europe is Racing to Zero with Frans Timmermans and Nigel Topping

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:04:13] Excellent. All right. I like that. I like the idea of standing up on day zero and committing to big new things. That's what we've got to do right? And it's worth remembering, actually, you know, because often, you know, people who care about these issues can fall into the trap of feeling that the future is always worse than the past. We're always destroying the environment more. We're always going down this road where things degrade. Actually five years ago, and we've been so reminded of this week and in last week's episode, because it's been five years since the Paris agreement, two degrees felt basically impossible, let alone one point five net zero by the middle of the century was an absolute moonshot. Whereas now what we've seen is that has really been pulled into the present right now. Fifty-one percent of global emissions are covered by a net-zero commitment. If Biden does what he says he's going to do, then that will be 63 percent. We're not there. But this is a big step up in the last few years. Action is unfolding quickly. Increased commitment is unfolding quickly. There is a lot here to feel really confident about. The old principle of actually setting a target and innovating your way towards it with a series of increasingly ambitious steps seems to be working in this scenario. So that is, I would say, really exciting. And actually, where better to go first in this conversation? And I will give you a moment to say what you obviously think you want to say, Paul.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:05:29] But before I do that, after you say that, we're going to go to a conversation with our old friend Nigel Topping, the high-level champion for climate action. But first of all, Mr. Paul Dickinson.

Paul Dickinson: [00:05:39] The only thing I wanted to add, Tom, is from all of those commitments comes this sort of structural advance. People like Emmanuel Macron, president of France, talking about having a referendum to put climate change into the French constitution, or, for example, this incredible, with the FD reporting that the EU emissions trading scheme is now up to thirty-one euro a tonne. That's fantastic news for geeks like me who follow that kind of stuff back up where it should be, where it makes a real change in behavior. And finally, I want to shout out for the Count Us In campaign where Christiana and others are doing amazing work, getting the public to think about this, not least with my dear friends, at Giki Zero where you can go and calculate how to reduce our emissions. It's all lovely. 

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:06:21] I love Giki Zero.

Paul Dickinson: [00:06:22] Oh, OK. Good. I'm glad, thank you. That's a rare praise. Well, fantastic team. Play about with the g, i, k, y, Giky Zero.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:06:31] So right now we're going to hear from Nigel Topping and keen and attentive listeners of the podcast will know precisely who Nigel is. But if you haven't listened to the full back-catalog, first of all, you're going to get a chance in January when we have a bit of a break and would encourage you to delve into it. But secondly, Nigel is a very old friend of mine and Paul's and many others in the climate movement. He was appointed earlier this year as the UK's high-level champion for climate action. That means he's basically responsible for everything in the climate negotiation COP process, apart from what national governments do. And the reason we've invited him on today is that the work he's doing is going to be a very significant part of Outrage and Optimism in 2021. We have formed a partnership with Nigel and with the Race to Zero, the high-level Champions Office. Every month we will bring you a special edition of Outrage and Optimism, where we will delve into the transformation that is unfurling as a result of the race to zero. What cities are doing, what businesses are doing, what investors are doing, where countries are going to really help you understand how the world is preparing for COP 26. Nigel is the man at the center of all of that, so just as we round out t2020, to give you a sense of what those episodes are going to be like, here's a conversation that Christiana and I had with Nigel earlier today.

Christiana Figueres: [00:07:55] Nigel, we're so happy that you're back on Outrage and Optimism and we are looking forward to having you actually quite frequently next year since Outrage and Optimism is going to be the partner podcast to Race to Zero. Honestly, you know Tom and I worked on the, let's say, chapter one of this mobilization of stakeholders to support what governments are doing or how.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:08:26] It feels like a much earlier version of the technology, though, if you remember what we did.

Christiana Figueres: [00:08:30] Yeah, it's sort of like we had the fax machine and now you have cell phones.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:08:37] I was going to say it was pigeons.

Christiana Figueres: [00:08:38] Oh, pigeons. Well, maybe. But we are so delighted, so delighted and so excited about Race to Zero. That is not new for next year, has been going on already last year, but is basically the mobilization of corporations, the financial sector, of everyone who is not a national government, which is the purview of the COP presidency. So you have under your baton the amazing responsibility and opportunity to mobilize everyone else in what I used to call: creating the surround sound effect to embrace national governments and give them the confidence in the comfort to take on the ambitious decisions that they will have to make at COP 26. So Nigel. Race to Zero.

Nigel Topping: [00:09:29] Well, it's two things, really. First of all, it's just like the creation of a massive signal from, as you say, everyone who is not a government saying: we understand the science, we know it's inevitable and we're on it. We're doing it. We're committed to getting to zero in the 2040s or earlier if we can. Every day earlier is better, we know that. And we're making great progress. We have thousands of businesses, cities, universities, investors, all committing. But what it's also, and that's what we're going to really be exploring in these special podcasts, and I'm really excited about partnering with you guys on it, it's also in every sector a detailed roadmap of how we get there. It's great to say we're going to get to zero in 2045 or 2039. But how and especially what are you going to do in the next five years? And that's the really exciting thing we're going to be exploring.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:10:21] And I think that's different about the race to zero as you've conceived it compared to previous kinds of collective campaigns. There have been sign-up campaigns for a long time, but how do you do it? What's the roadmap? How do you partner together? And that's what we'll, as you say, unpack. I mean, listeners may be familiar with the episodes we've been doing already on the future of transportation that we do in partnership with Nesté. This will be a much broader series of conversations. We'll have you, we'll have a range of others and we'll dig into these sectoral transformations week by week to really unpack what's happening.

Christiana Figueres: [00:10:51] And I think the fun thing about this how, Nigel, is we have to wrap our minds around the complexity of this transformation. This is not about one company moving forward. Yes, each company must and many are. But the fact is that we will only get to halving our emissions if that company that is the leader functions as the leader and the promoter of an ecosystem change. If we get the ecosystem of that particular company in that particular sector to actually move forward. Otherwise, we just have basically pilot projects with each company moving forward or each sector, and we are done with pilot projects. This is now about normalizing decarbonization.

Nigel Topping: [00:11:40] Yeah and the exciting thing is that when we get whole ecosystems moving, the change that was going painfully slowly four years ago suddenly explodes exponentially. We talked before about this transformation in electric vehicles. Just in the last couple of months. We had the UK government saying they're going to phase out combustion engines in 2030. And then last week, we had the CEOs of the seven European truck manufacturers. Truck manufacturers. Right. Not cars, trucks. All saying 2040. So that means basically now by 2040, there will be no combustion engines built in Europe ever again. And four years ago, the IEA was saying it would be the 2070s. The future's come forward by 40 years, in four years. But as you say, Christiana, it's not one company, it's a bunch of companies on the supply side, it's cities, they've got a huge role, mayors saying we want cleaner air. It's ministers of transport, it's investors. I'm talking to BlackRock later today. Larry Fink just said in their new stewardship guidelines that they're going to be expecting every company to demonstrate that their plans are in line with net-zero by 2050. So all of those forces all swirling around, all add up to really accelerated change.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:12:54] So as we unpack this and we communicate with people listening to the podcast throughout the course of next year in the lead up to the crucial COP 26, and of course, you'll be working to get all of these different stakeholders to be as ambitious as possible so that we can kind of wrap our arms around the whole of society outcome and see in COP 26 just how momentous this is. What do you hope this will achieve? Why communicate with this level of detail with all of these listeners? What's the outcome?

Nigel Topping: [00:13:18] Well, I think we've made a huge transformation in the overall levels of ambition to net zero in the 2040s and just in the last six months. Politically, a lot, you know, we've seen it. EU, UK, China, South Korea, Japan, now new administration in America. But everybody knows that grand commitments to long-term targets is not enough. So we're going to keep building that signal because we need more and more and more until everybody's made that commitment. But we really got to get into, OK, what's it going to take in the next five years? Who's doing what? And how can we both build awareness of what needs to happen so that more people commit and build confidence that it's happening? Because that's also the confidence that is happening, is something which makes it easier for more people to commit. Because if all my competitors are doing it, if every other country is doing it, it doesn't feel as uncomfortable sticking my neck above the parapet.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:14:12] Awesome. It's going to be fun. Thanks so much for doing this with us. This will be throughout the course of 2021, right to the end. We're going to look at all these different sectoral transformations. We're also going to drop in deep dives in where countries are and how they're doing and their enhanced NDCs. So we'll be looking at it from both angles under this overall umbrella of this partnership with you and Race to Zero. We're so excited about working with you on this throughout 2021.

Christiana Figueres: [00:14:33] But hold on, Tom. We better make sure that this is not only nerdy, it will be nerdy because we will be sharing a lot of information, but if it's not fun. I don’t want to do it. So we better make it both nerdy and fun.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:14:45] Really, Christiana? We have you down for the transformation of the steel sector, and we're hoping you'll spend 60 minutes going into the details of material science.

Christiana Figueres: [00:14:54] Well, thanks so much. Nigel, we're delighted to be doing this with you. Thank you for the opportunity.

Nigel Topping: [00:15:00] Well, I'm really delighted. Actually, just this morning, I was talking to Eva Greiner, who's the head of the E-Drive program at Mercedes, because she was on that. We had these Race to Zero dialogues and we had youth setting the agendas, we had young people challenging executives. And we can get nerdy but there are lots of people who have got very exciting stories to tell about how they're dedicating their whole careers to this transformation. So I think we can have a lot of fun when we bring it to life. I'm really looking forward.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:15:28] Amazing to see how Nigel is now embracing this role. Paul, you know him well. What did you think listening to that?

Paul Dickinson: [00:15:42] Look, Nigel's a fantastic human being. He's a mathematician. He's got this great background in industry. I had the privilege to work with him at CDP for many years, and then he was leading We Mean Business. And there's something incredibly infectious about him. And he brings forward or brings out of people their energy and their commitment and their dynamism, their belief that they can get things done. So I was just inspired by his energy and his clarity of thinking and his ability to just sort of point us all in the right direction.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:16:10] Yeah, absolutely. And I just think that that role of high-level climate action champion was, of course, created in the Paris agreement. And there's been a series of very impressive people who have held that role and really done a lot. But it wasn't until, and don't forget, this is the first genuinely consequential COP since Paris. But Nigel, coming in and taking that role, I mean, there could be nobody better at this moment to bring the whole world together. I mean he's built this enormous infrastructure of people who are just working away. I believe he stole your chief operating officer, Francis Way, from CDP.

Paul Dickinson: [00:16:43] In an ideal world, there's no difference between the organization I work for and many others in the UN system and the governmental system. We are all in service of this goal that government represents. So, yes, stole.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:16:56] That's very generous of you, Paul. But anyway, so great. And we're so excited about everything we're going to be doing with Nigel in 2021. Now to our main interview for this week. And we are so thrilled to bring you this conversation today with Frans Timmermans, who is the first vice president of the European Commission. And I don't mean that by saying he is the first one to hold the office. He is the principal vice president of the European Commission. So Frans Timmermans was formerly the minister of foreign affairs for the Netherlands from 2012 to 2014 in the second Rueter Cabinet and state secretary for foreign affairs prior to that. He now serves as the first vice president of the European Commission, serving, of course, under President Ursula von der Leyen. He is a passionate advocate, as you're going to hear, for the European Green Deal. In fact, he campaigned for his role on the basis of his support for that, it's a huge part of his identity as a politician and what he's going to be fighting for. He has just been one of the great champions on the world stage in recent months, taking over the mantle, of course, from previous leaders who've held that position, and we were so thrilled to speak to him so soon after this enormously consequential decision by the European Council to shift the 2030 target to 55 percent net emissions reductions. This is a great conversation. I'm sure you'll enjoy it. Frans Timmermans.

Paul Dickinson: [00:18:15] Just one thing to add is, Frans was like all of us at home. And although he's got a lovely European Commission background, actually there are huge dogs barking all the way through. And we asked Frans about this and he said there's nothing that can be done.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:18:30] Here's the interview.

Christiana Figueres: [00:18:36] Frans, thank you so much for joining us on Outrage and Optimism today. We hope you have, meanwhile, recuperated from the marathonic negotiations inside the EU to decide on what your new NDC target is going to be, which you then proudly announced on Saturday, last Saturday at the Climate Ambition Summit. Could we start there and then we'll go to the European target. But we would love to hear your impressions about the Climate Ambition Summit, a rather unique way of pulling countries together, both celebrating the fifth anniversary of the Paris agreement, but also in lieu of the COP that would have taken place this year had we not had covid. So a very interesting way of mobilizing further ambition. What was your impression?

Frans Timmermans: [00:19:36] Well, you know, if you take it one year back and you see where we were when we announced European Green Deal, so many people telling us that you're on your own. It's overambitious, it's not realistic. And you then look where we are now. A lot was achieved. China announcing carbon neutrality by 2060, Japan, 2050, Korea, 2050, South Africa, very ambitious as well. And, of course, the elections in the United States with the Biden administration announcing to return to the Paris agreement. So if you look at it from that perspective, Saturday was really quite remarkable. On the other hand, if you look at what new announcements made, Saturday was rather cautious or not many surprises. Having said that, I didn't expect any surprises because we're all preparing for COP in Glasgow in November next year.

Christiana Figueres: [00:20:34] Yeah, it's fun that you said no surprises. I was going to ask you, was there any surprise in all of those announcements for you? Truly no surprise?

Frans Timmermans: [00:20:43] Not really. A confirmation of what we already knew. I was really very attentive to what Xi Jinping had to say, but in fact, it was in line with what he had announced earlier. A bit more precise, which is always, always helpful, but not more ambitious than what he said.

Christiana Figueres: [00:21:00] Exactly. Exactly. Well, it would have been surprising had he become more ambitious in just a couple of months.

Frans Timmermans: [00:21:07] Yeah. And we're all now working on what our commitments actually mean in practice. And that's what China is doing. That's what we're doing so that we have these reinforced NDCs, nationally determined contributions, and that we are better prepared for Glasgow, because I think that's where we have to show whether we're really, really on track to comply with our commitments under the Paris Agreement.

Christiana Figueres: [00:21:34] Yes, yes. Well, let's talk about that NDC, the nationally determined contributions, from the EU because you came out after many, many, many, many, many hours of negotiations or rather days, weeks, months. You just barely made it to be able to announce on Saturday. And Europe has come out with a net 55 reduction of greenhouse gases against 1990 levels. A target Frans that is very ambitious for some and doesn't go far enough for others. So, you know, I think if you are neither pleasing any of the two extremes, you can probably feel that you came in where you had to. But we would love to hear from you the difficulties, you know, I mean it rolls off the tongue, right? Net 55 reduction against 1990. But it's a huge deal. And having witnessed for so many years the complexities of the EU being a region that brings together many, many different economies with very different structures, very different natural resources, very different energy matrixes, it's not easy to get an overall agreement on what is going to happen with emissions. So would love to know from you, how do you feel about it? What were the challenges that you were all able to conquer? And where do you see this moving forward?

Frans Timmermans: [00:23:22] Well, first of all, let me briefly explain why we got to minus 55. When we prepared this, we did what we call, in our jargon, an impact assessment. We went and looked at what could be done and what this means for the different sectors where industries at, what we're doing in the building, environment, transport, agriculture. And then we looked at what we could do, being as ambitious as humanly possible, from our perspective. And we came up with the minus fifty-five target which in our view would also allow us to still stay within the ambition to be climate neutral by 2050, which is only in 30 years' time. It's a huge ambition. So if we don't do, if we do less than fifty-five percent reduction, we would have to do so much more in the last 10 years before 2050. That's it's almost impossible to do. If we do more, we would probably lose a couple of member states in the process. You have to remember that some member states in their energy mix, they have more than 50 percent renewables. Others, like Poland, there are 80 percent coal in their energy mix. These are huge, huge differences within the European Union. And if the European Union is about anything, it's about bridging differences. And there's no use in isolating one or two member states because they have a more difficult task. It's about creating enough solidarity at EU level so that everybody can make it. And I think in our analysis, which I think was brutally honest, we came to the conclusion it's feasible. And I think this is something that most member states, even those who initially didn't want to embrace that conclusion, they came to the conclusion that, yeah, it's feasible, and let's do it.

Frans Timmermans: [00:25:14] I think a couple of determining factors. First of all, the analysis is very clear and it's difficult to just push it away. Secondly, because we're also in this pandemic and Europe has been able to mobilize 1800 billion euros of investment potential for a limited period of time. Those member states who have the biggest task just made a political calculation, saying, well, this money is now on the table. This transition will have to happen. If we join it now, we can get a bigger share of that money and we can use that money to actually make a transformation which has become inevitable anyway. I think the determining factor here might have been that everybody came to understand that there's no future in coal. I remember seeing this in Germany two years ago in the Zala saying there's no future in coal. And people were shocked that somebody from the commission, the first vice-chairman of the commission, saying there's no future in coal. Oh, my God. Horrible. And now even in Poland, they have a coal Phase-Out plan. So I think the issue of coal has really, really also accelerated this development. So, yeah, I think it's positive, minus fifty-five. But then of course there's all sorts of devils and all sorts of details that need to be worked out now. And this is what we're going to be doing in the next couple of months leading up to the summit, coming up with concrete proposals on emission reductions, on energy efficiency, et cetera, et cetera.

Christiana Figueres: [00:26:52] Tom is chomping at the bit to ask a question, but could I take you one step farther? What do you think was decisive for Poland? As you say, 80 percent coal. What is decisive for Poland when they look into the future? How do they come to the conclusion that they can also not rely on coal in the future? What is that shift in mindset that occurs there?

Frans Timmermans: [00:27:24] Well, first of all, they're losing billions because nobody's buying the coal. Even the Polish energy sector is buying coal in Russia rather than using Polish coal. So they really have a problem. And the coal mining regions know this extremely well. And secondly, Poland has a lot of experience with transition. And now that they see that there are funds available for a transition that they've now come to see as completely inevitable. They sort of jump on the bandwagon and say, OK, help us with this transition, use a just transition fund, use other funds and we will look for another economy in those coal mining regions. Thirdly, it's a country of engineers and they also see opportunity in this because this new economy that we're working on, we're also in the middle of an industrial revolution. Let's not forget that. We will need new industry and they see opportunity there as well and they hope that the coal mining regions can be the basis for new industries. And finally, extremely important in Poland, is the issue of air quality. The air quality in Polish cities is horrible. And on a European level, more than 400000 people die prematurely every year because of bad air quality. And Poland is particularly hit because of its energy mix. And it's also politically unsustainable for any party to have any future in that country if you don't have an active policy in improving air quality, you lose all the young generations. And whether it's a party in power or the opposition, they know that in the long run, they will need young people to vote for them. And the only way to do that, one of the very few ways to do that, is to show that you do something about air quality.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:29:09] That's very interesting. Thank you, Christiana. I mean, honestly, if I'm chomping at the bit to ask you a question, the main question is coming from a country that is now got a media that's talking about gunboats in the channel to protect the remaining fishes, please can Paul and I stay in Europe, but I'm going to resist the temptation to go there. And I actually want to ask you about a small element that was in the announcement that talked about carbon tax border adjustments. Now, I know this is not a new thing, but it was reiterated in that document that came out and basically said that in certain scenarios, legislation or regulation would be considered that would actually provide a tax at the border if other countries weren't meeting the same level of ambition. So I just want to draw you out on that a bit and ask what sorts of scenarios can you see where that mechanism could be deployed? I mean, we are seeing some countries around the world now not being as ambitious as we otherwise might have expected that. What sort of timescale and what would that look like and how likely do you think it is that that will be needed?

Frans Timmermans: [00:30:05] Well, this carbon border adjustment mechanism is something that we've been working on for a while, and we'll continue to work on it. First, it's extremely complicated to get it right. So what we want to do is the following. We look at what other countries are doing and we just show what we will be doing to comply with the Paris Agreement in all the sectors, specifically by sector. And if we then see those international partners, who've also committed to Paris but are not willing to take the necessary steps, create a situation where we risk either carbon leakage, which means industry leaving Europe to go there because they can produce cheaper, or they unlevel the playing field in terms of competition. So if that happens at one of these two or both of them happen, then we will have to protect our industry by having a measure at the border. And that's the carbon border adjustment. But if we do it in such a way that we study per sector where this is happening and can demonstrate that it's happening, then I also believe we can do this in full conformity of WTO rules, World Trade Organization rules. And it has to be surgical. It has to be very precise per sector, whether it's steel or cement or aluminum or other sectors where you could demonstrate that there is the risk of carbon leakage or there is unfair competition.

Paul Dickinson: [00:31:26] Just to follow up on that, as the largest market in the world, you may well have an influence on others around the world and that leadership of the EU. I'd just like to really salute you for the leadership of the European Union on this critical issue. I just want to change the topic slightly. The global financial crisis in 2008 caused enormous economic hardship for many millions of people. Covid-19 is actually exacerbating many of those problems. Now, many of the political upsets we've noticed on climate are set by sort of desperate reactions to economic disadvantage. Now, you yourself have previously stated that what politics boils down to essentially is an issue of redistribution. Can I ask you, how will you make sure that the EU Green Deal addresses this fundamental issue?

Frans Timmermans: [00:32:13] Well, I think if you're into politics and especially if you believe in open societies and if you believe in democracy and if you believe we have a huge task in fighting off would-be autocrats and populists, you have to fix the underlying problem. You have to ask yourself, it's not enough to point at them and say that they're bad people and they smell badly or whatever you want to say. You have to ask yourselves, why are they attractive? Why are politicians attractive who challenge the system, all the elites, etc.? Because too many people in our society feel society is not working for them, and this is something that's been coming for a long, long time. This isn't happening because of the climate crisis or because of the migration crisis we had in 2015. I believe it's sadly inherent to a political system that believed in trickle-down economics, which was a nonsensical view. And so it's been trickle-up economics over the last 30 years. And you see people making a lot of money with capital and in a decreasing way, being able to have a decent life just by working. If you compare the lives of middle-class people, whether it's in Britain or Europe or in the United States today with, let's say, the 1960s or 70s, it's a completely different world. In those days, you could maintain a family with one income and try and do that. If you look at young people across the western world, they can't own a house anymore.

Frans Timmermans: [00:33:59] They can't even rent a place anymore if they're unlucky. I'm just pointing to a few elements in this. But this is contributing to this fact that this social contract. Any society is based on the social contract and people are asking themselves, did I ever sign this? And if I signed it, why isn't working for me? And I think if you don't understand this fundamental problem, all the things we're trying to fix will not work. First, redistribution has to be reinvented in light of the fact that it didn't work, in light of the fact that we now have a re-evaluation of public policies, we think differently about schoolteachers, about nurses, about doctors. We think differently about housing. This is going to have a huge effect on politics in the time to come. And we need to combine this with the need to recalibrate our relationship with the natural environment. It's also a matter of redistribution. And the thing is, the complication is we have to do everything in one go if you want to get it right. And that is what I believe is the quintessential question of our age in terms of politics. Can we get this right? So I think the crises we're facing go way beyond the climate crisis, way beyond the biodiversity crisis, and has to do with a profound institutional crisis were affected with. And, you know, whatever you think of Brexit, this is how I explain Brexit as well.

Paul Dickinson: [00:35:30] Well, we often talk about Brexit and Trump in the same phrase, in fact. And if I may compliment you, I think that the degree of passion and clarity, and force with which you express yourself on this issue gives me high confidence that the European Union will be looking to develop policies that do cause this industrial transformation to help address this critical problem.

Frans Timmermans: [00:35:50] We will certainly try, but I have to confess, I have my moments of desperation as well. You know, the fact is that too many people in our society don't understand that this is a fundamental ideological battle going on. The fact is that those who advocate a policy based on identity and on finding scapegoats and finding an enemy are trying to recreate a sense of community that is lost. So the fact that people are trying to recreate a sense of community is not a bad thing. The only thing is if you do it in a diverse society by creating enemies within and without, you set society up for violence and no solution will be found. But the fact that people are trying to look for a sense of community could be a force for good. If you could make that inclusive community, if you could show that, nobody will be left behind. If we can prove that concretely, nobody is being left behind, then the sense of community will not be based on tribal thinking or ethnic thinking. But that's what's happening today. And that I think is scary. If you look at the rise of anti-Semitism everywhere, if you look at the rise of nationalism and scapegoating, I don't know who. And, you know, I've always thought a bit in line with Dr. Martin Luther King, that you know, the arc of justice is long, but it tends towards justice. I'm not so sure if we see what's happening around the world. It might be even longer than we thought. If we don't correct it.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:37:30] Political leadership really matters at those moments, right? That's when you see the colors come through of the individuals that hold elected office, because actually either you can reach a scenario where it tips into the self-referential ideological structures that are basically based on excluding others, or you can actually have a leadership that embraces the future. And that's in some parts of the world we've really struggled with that recently?

Frans Timmermans: [00:37:54] Well, I think we've struggled with that everywhere, and the way I see history is that these things are decided not by the activists who go one side or the other, but by mobilizing the majority of people to move in the right direction. It sounds silly, but one of the leading thoughts I've had on this, you know, I'm a scholar of the 1920s, 30s, and 40s. And 10 percent of the people will do the right thing under any condition, under any condition. 10 percent of the people will do the wrong thing under any condition, and 80 percent of the people can be convinced to do either one or the other. It's my deep conviction as a scholar of history. And so we have a lot of work to do to convince people that, you know, this is in their own interest. And sometimes, you know, you plant a tree, but you'll never sit in the shadow of that tree. But your children and your grandchildren will. And that's a good thing to do. And since we are becoming increasingly prisoners of the here and now, doing something that will only lead to a good result for the next generation or even a generation later, it's not very fashionable in politics. But we need to refine this feeling. I'm doing this not for myself, but for my kids and my grandkids.

Christiana Figueres: [00:39:23] Which brings me, friends, to the climate pact that you've just announced two days ago, because that truly is about mobilizing individuals, mobilizing public support, hopefully getting that 80 percent that is so critical. As you say, 10 percent will never be moved. 10 percent or there are already. But it's that 80 percent, that big fat middle that is interested. But is not engaged in the transformation that we all have to accelerate. So I would love to hear from the perspective that you have just painted for us. What does the climate pact mean? We're delighted, of course, that it's a partnership with Count Us In campaign, that it is about citizen action. It's very much about trickle up, to use your word, it's about trickle-up action. And I'd love to hear you unpack that out. How do we mobilize these citizens and how do we trickle it up to what corporations and governments have set themselves to do?

Frans Timmermans: [00:40:34] Well, first of all, a couple of years ago, I was always worried about climate deniers and also the financing campaigns of those who didn't like climate policy, finding some eccentric scholars saying that there is no climate crisis, etc. But climate denial is sort of gone out of fashion. What I fear today is not climate denial. What I fear today is desperation, climate desperation. People saying it's too late anyway and I'm just a person, what can I do, etc. And this is what I want to stand up against because I believe these people, if you give them a reason to act and if you show that what they do actually has a positive impact, I think we can mobilize them and wider society. So the climate pact is about being able to inform each other of what can be done. And then to translate that very much into I'm doing this if you do that and we join in doing that, we can really make a difference. That's one element in this.

Christiana Figueres: [00:41:37] And we can count it. We can count it.

Frans Timmermans: [00:41:40] Yeah, it becomes empirical. It becomes something you can showcase. And then, of course, you need to exchange best experiences because most of the experiences with climate policy are made at local level. It's not at a global level. Antonio Guterres making wonderful speeches is great and it's really helpful. But the actual actions of cities and communities, et cetera, are really making a difference. And others might want to join that or might want to become inspired by that or might want to see that it's good for their economy or for their society to do that. Now, one of the reasons I thought we needed to do this, we can't all be David Attenborough. But he did something incredibly remarkable, when I came up with my idea of a Single-Use plastics legislation in Europe, I was cautioned by everyone. Have you gone completely bonkers? You want to interdict plastic straws? Is that Europe being big on big things? Plastic straws, plastic bag? What are you talking about? The tabloids in the UK will feast on it. Etc., etc., But then I think because of David Attenborough because in the same tabloids were on board in fighting the Single-Use Plastics, we created a sort of a public movement of people saying, hey, I can do that, I can do without straws. I can take other straws. I can do without plastic cutlery. I could do without these plastic plates. We have alternatives. And it inspired us to

Christiana Figueres: [00:43:17] And feel good about themselves doing that.

Frans Timmermans: [00:43:19] Exactly. And we drafted legislation and in eight months' time, usually takes two years for EU legislation to get adopted. In eight months' time, we got it through Parliament and through the governments because there was a public movement behind it and that's how I ideally see the climate movement, politicians doing the right thing, but being also pushed by the public to do more of the right thing. And I hope the climate pact can contribute to that. And also, you know, I think NGOs rightfully are very suspicious of corporates being in this. But I believe the corporate world has woken up to this idea and many of them are doing the right thing and they deserve credit for that, or at least they deserve a podium where they can show what they're doing and perhaps convince the more skeptical activists that they might be able to form an alliance with them. So that's how I want to use it.

Christiana Figueres: [00:44:15] Well, we certainly love that. We have heard from many and certainly what we believe and have actually experienced that once you take action, and sometimes the action is as tiny as giving up plastic straws or giving up red meat for one day until you go to two days, three days, four days. But there are steps. Everyone can take a step, two steps, three steps. And that's what we have seen, that as soon as you take some action, then you begin to feel so much better about yourself, more engaged and more open to taking further and further steps. It really is a very interesting shift in mindset that occurs from desperation and despair, as you were talking about it, to agency. I can actually contribute to this. It's fascinating to see.

Frans Timmermans: [00:45:12] Would you allow me to add something to that? Please do. One of the mistakes we've made as politicians and I take full responsibility for that over the last, let's say, 15, 20 years, is to increasingly treat citizens as customers that need satisfaction, gratification, etc. And increasingly, citizens have started to see politics as the ones who provide instant gratification, et cetera, et cetera. Now, the only way we go to fix this is if people go back to the issue of being citizens. So you're not the customer taking a product? No. You're part of a system where you play your own role and you can ask things of politicians that they deliver. But you're also delivering yourselves or part of the problem yourselves. And you're not an outsider looking at something that's happening, detached from you. You're part of that.

Christiana Figueres: [00:46:10] Collective responsibility, collective responsibility.

Frans Timmermans: [00:46:13] Yes, but the reinvention of citizenship.

Paul Dickinson: [00:46:16] And participation, participation.

Frans Timmermans: [00:46:19] Yes, you're part of this. You're not just somebody pressing a button and asking instant gratification. You're forming this. You're shaping this. But for that to happen, politicians also need to change.

Paul Dickinson: [00:46:32] And we're going to have to keep an eye on that. Now, Christiana, do you have a very specific question for Frans?

Christiana Figueres: [00:46:38] Well, I do. But before we get to our final question, I'm very tempted, Frans, to ask you about grandchildren because you come from a very interesting family where both of your grandfathers were Dutch coal miners. Correct me if I'm wrong. Where you have been such a staunch, staunch advocate for climate responsibility, certainly for the benefit of the European and the world economy, but also on a very personal level because of grandchildren, because of future generations. And I just wonder, what is your conversation with those little ones?

Frans Timmermans: [00:47:21] Well, I became a grandfather at the end of July for the first time. Remember, my grandson was born and his name is Case. A very Dutch name. And I was holding him and I never get to see him, obviously, because of this pandemic. But I got to hold him once and I held him and I was looking at him and then it dawned on me that if we don't get started during the mandate I have now, if we don't get the legislation in place now, we'll never get to minus 55 in 2030, and we can forget about getting to climate neutrality in twenty 2050, and then I hold this little man in my arms. And I was thinking, you know, when my grandfather held me in his arms in nineteen sixty-one, this was before going into a net shift in the coal mine and his only worry was how is my grandson going to finish secondary school, an opportunity which I never had. And I remember my granddad, until he died and he saw me graduate from university, that was the only thing he was thinking about. How can my grandchildren have the opportunities I never had? And it might sound strange, but it's sort of rewarding my granddad saying, I saw what you did and now I want to do the same thing for my grandchildren. How can I prove to them that they will have a world that's livable when they grow up, when they're adults. And for that to happen, we need to act now. We cannot defer that. We cannot delay that, because if we don't set it in motion right now, the industrial revolution is moving ahead at lightning speed. And if we don't shape that to be climate neutral, if we don't do that now, we can never fix it again. And then what kind of world do we give to our children and grandchildren? It would be a dereliction of duty if we did not act now.

Paul Dickinson: [00:49:26] Pay your grandfather forward, not back.

Frans Timmermans: [00:49:29] Exactly. Yes. Yes, exactly right. I need to remember that one.

Christiana Figueres: [00:49:36] So that brings me to the final question that we always ask our guests, Frans. Seeing the possibilities and you being such a compelling motor for change, for good on the one side and on the other side, being entirely knowledgeable on what could happen if we don't do our job now. Are you more on the optimistic side or on the outrage side?

Frans Timmermans: [00:50:11] Well, I have a moral and political duty to be optimistic, but apart from that, I am mildly optimistic. You know humanity has overcome so many challenges in the past. If you see how we reacted to this pandemic. What we were able, first of all, everybody ran in all different directions, and then we were able to mobilize the best and brightest of humanity to develop a vaccine at lightning speed, et cetera, et cetera. If we can do that in a pandemic and then we put our minds to the climate crisis and understand that there is no vaccine against the climate crisis, but there are measures we can take to reset our society and our economy. If we would work on that with the same dedication as we did on the pandemic, we could solve this. You know, the technology is there. Hell, the money is even there. The people are there. We need to bring it all together. The challenge is not a technological one. It's a political one. It's an organizational one. Can we mobilize the willingness to do this? So, all in all, I'm optimistic, but let's not kid ourselves. There are huge risks between now and then of things, some things will be disappointingly bad, other things will be surprisingly good. Who would have thought that sustainable energy, that wind, and solar would be as cheap as it is today five years ago? Nobody would've thought that. But we will run into other difficulties and to adapt to that and to develop global politics and European politics, to be able to react to that. That is a challenge of our time. But at the end of the day, I remain optimistic. Humanity and especially Europeans. And I include Britain in that. And, actually, if I may, I include Latin Americans into that. We all come from the same stock at the end of the day.

Christiana Figueres: [00:52:28] We're all humans.

Frans Timmermans: [00:52:30] So this challenge is huge but humanity's potential to adapt and to change is also huge. So that makes me optimistic and I have to be. I'm thinking of Case, I'm thinking of his generation. And I don't want to, at the end of my life, I don't want kids to tell me, Granddad, what did you do when you saw the climate crisis?

Paul Dickinson: [00:52:56] I have friends that sow beautiful words, the European Union is like a vast orchestra, the biggest economy in the world, and it couldn't have a better conductor on this critical issue to bring it all together. So thank you.

Christiana Figueres: [00:53:09] Frans Timmermans, what a true pleasure to have you here with us today. Thank you very much, from us and from Case.

Frans Timmermans: [00:53:20] Thank you so much.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:53:22] I mean, what a privilege to get a chance to sit down and speak with Frans Timmermans. What a passionate advocate for the future. He's so motivated by his emotional connection to what it means in terms of whether or not we get on top of this issue with the time we still have available. I found that so motivating and so inspiring, which is not always the experience I have when listening to politicians these days, I have to say. Paul, where are you after that discussion?

Paul Dickinson: [00:53:57] Well, I do think that he's clear, he's inspiring, totally understands climate change, and is doing such a great job of bringing the largest economic unit in the world together. But I mean, I was really struck by how powerfully he is touched by the wealth inequalities we have in society at the moment and some of the distortions that are happening as a result of that. And spoiler alert, I think this is going to come up in future podcasts. I think we've got issues, social issues at the moment that are interfering with our technocratic and political abilities to deal with climate change. So I'm just putting that one out there. But I asked Frans the question and I asked him with kind of like about, you know, 10 units of energy and he came back with a thousand units of energy, and I won't forget that.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:54:46] Yeah, that's exactly the bit I was going to pick up on as well. And I was impressed by the passion of it. I was also impressed by how it feels to talk with a politician and have them be unapologetic about the need for transformation. He's not a person that is characterized by extremist views. He's not polarizing in that way. He's regarded as somewhat centrist. But he was absolutely clear that this is what is necessary. This is about redistribution and how these different elements work together. I liked his endorsement of the phrase you gave him, pay it forward instead of paying it back in regards to his grandfather and his new role as a grandfather himself. So I thought that was beautiful, but how wonderful to get a chance to chat with him. And I know Christiana was equally impressed and pleased that he's now holding the consequential role he is for these very important years.

Paul Dickinson: [00:55:41] There's a double meaning to the word keep. Like if I keep a promise to you, then I'm doing my duty. But if you give me a present, I can keep it for myself. And you can play with that. The infinite promise of the future is ours to keep.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:56:02] And a keep is also a small guardhouse in a sort of Norman Fort, isn't it?

Paul Dickinson: [00:56:06] Well, I haven't yet managed to bring in that third aspect to the metaphor. But if we can have something involving climate change, equity, duty, and time travel, then, you know, we could have an even more appropriate metaphor. But just to jump into you again, Carnac, not paying attention at the back of the class. The infinite promise of the future is ours to keep. Well, I'm going to give myself a round of applause for that. So thank you very much, everybody.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:56:33] Right. This was a wonderful conversation with both Nigel and Frans Timmermans. But now, sadly, we are running out of time. So we're going to have to pivot, as we always do at the end of these episodes, to this wonderful piece of music that we're bringing this week from Rhys Lewis. Rhys is a UK-based singer, songwriter, and producer. His work has led to more than 400 million streams of his music. We are so pleased to bring you his beautiful piece of music better than today. And Rhys is also deeply thoughtful about all the issues that we talk about in this podcast. We asked him what his motivation was for writing this song, and he replied he considers himself to be optimistic, but struggles more and more to see the positives and remain hopeful in life. So when he's feeling frustrated with the state of the world, one belief he tries to hold onto is this: that even if we don't agree on what constitutes a better future, we all vote with the same good intentions at heart.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:57:25] The only way that we can better understand and learn from people with opposing opinions to our own is if we approach one another with empathy. So this song is a reminder to himself that even when we don't agree on how to make it so, we all want the future to be a better place. And we also asked him about what he thinks the artist's role is during the climate emergency. And he said the more he learns about climate change and the impact his lifestyle and career is having on the planet, the more responsibility he feels for changing that. It's definitely important to write music and create art that inspires people to engage with the climate crisis and shouting about it loudly and often on social media also makes such a difference. But ultimately, he says, it's more important to be changing the way that we as artists operate. He says the artist's role in the climate emergency is the same, ultimately as everyone else is, to do everything in your power to reduce your carbon impact on the planet as quickly as you can. This is Rhys Lewis. Better Than Today. Thanks for being here.

Clay Carnill: [01:01:09] Another episode of Outrage and Optimism, that was Rhys Lewis with his tune Better Than Today. I've got links in the show notes to check out more of his music and also tour dates. I think I'm saying that right. Is that right? Yes. Tour dates he has in the diary next year. I almost can't believe it. You can go check those out in the show notes, click on stuff, buy his music. So speaking of show notes, as I normally do to no end, we have a listener survey that we need you to fill out, we're planning things for season three and beyond. And if you've made it this far in the podcast, this survey was definitely made for you. So if you fill it out, we'll read what you have to say and then the podcast gets better. It's basic math, you know, Nigel knows. OK, and now time to say thank you many times in a row to people who deserve it. Outrage and Optimism is a global optimism production executive produced by Marina Mansilla-Hermann and produced by me, Clay Carnill. Global Optimism is Sara Lau, Katie Bradford, Lara Richardson, Sophie MacDonald, Freya Newman, Sara Thomas, Sharon Johnson, and John Ward. Oh, and sorry I didn't make the team meeting today I was shoveling snow. And our hosts are Christiana Figueres, Tom Rivett-Karnac, and the Paul Dickinson. Special thanks this week to Yori Kasper and David Kice for making this week's interview possible. And thank you to Nigel Topping, who you will definitely hear more from next year. We like Nigel. And of course, last but not least, thank you to our guest this week, Frans Timmermans. So shifting back over to social media, we are online and posting things, you know, very optimistic things, if I do say so myself. @GlobalOptimism on all social media, including LinkedIn. And if you're enjoying the podcast, we are so happy to hear so. Please rate us five stars on Apple podcasts and write us a review, it means a lot. Okay, so we have one more episode coming your way this year and it is a fun one. Since 1825, the Royal Institute has hosted what are called the Christmas Lectures, which, if you're not in the UK, are a science-focused program for children and adults to both enjoy.

Clay Carnill: [01:04:52] Now, next week we have on all three of the hosts for this year's program titled Planet Earth A User's Guide. So, you know, chestnuts roasting on an open fire, Jack Frost nipping at your nose, and scientific experiments on your television? No, seriously, it's one of the most fun and lively conversations we've had this year. You won't want to miss. Join us Christmas Day. Hit subscribe. We'll see you then.