270: What Does This Trump Presidency Mean for Climate?

Tom: [00:01:02] I have two answers to that. I have to confess to being massively surprised because I seriously thought she'd win.

Christiana: [00:01:09] Me too.

Tom: [00:01:10] But the mind being what it is, once he won, my mind convinced me that this was sort of, I could sort of have slightly seen it coming or should have seen it coming in some way. But I have to say this time yesterday, we're recording this on the evening UK time of the 6th of November. I was feeling pretty good. I was feeling actually, that she was going to win one or other of the southern states, sweep the North, and actually it might not have even been close. And boy was I wrong.

Christiana: [00:01:37] Yeah. Me too, me too. Paul, how about you?

Paul: [00:01:40] I was exactly the same except do you know what, I think my subconscious mind is smarter than I am, because I kind of was watching some of it, and I kind of fell asleep on the sofa. And then I woke up about 4 a.m., and I went to my bed and I thought, I'm not going to look at my phone. And then I kind of slept through till like 8 a.m. when my alarm was going to go off. In fact, I slept till 730. I was waking up and I was like, not picking my phone up. Now that's very not like me. I think my subconscious was afraid that I would pick up and see what I picked up and saw.

Christiana: [00:02:10] What you saw.

Paul: [00:02:11] Yeah. And then I think actually the information thing just flipped like, oh, well, that's the result of the US election and the the information kind of got filed away. And then I just started having these extraordinary feelings, like I started feeling really unusual. And it made me realize that I was pretty unprepared for the result at a sort of inner level, if that makes any sense.

Tom: [00:02:31] What about you, Christiana?

Christiana: [00:02:33] Yeah, that's that's well put, Paul. I also felt very unprepared because I was also I was I was nervous, but I was optimistically nervous.

Paul: [00:02:45] Yep.

Christiana: [00:02:46] I had this nervous optimism that I really thought it was going to be close. And it wasn't close at all. I was I really thought it was going to be close, but she would win, and I was not prepared for this. I was not prepared for this for for several reasons. First, because doesn't everyone remember what it was like to wake up to the news every single day for four years. I mean, it was traumatic, traumatic. But then, of course, my brain hits in and goes, well, traumatic for me. Maybe not for other people. Maybe those messages that we got every day for four years were not traumatic for apparently many people, because otherwise this wouldn't have happened. If they had been traumatic, they would have gone a completely different way. And so as, as you know as well, we'll talk to Yassamin in in a bit, but it is just yet another reminder of how we live in our bubbles and how, you know, the confirmation bias is so powerful in us that we think that we know things and we think that we have interpreted and we talk to people who agree with us. And then we go, you see, I told you so. And we just reconfirm and reconfirm our own biases. How dangerous it is to live in one's own bubble.

Tom: [00:04:21] Yeah, 100%. And I think, I mean, I have a slightly different perspective on the on the point about the trauma from a few years ago. I think that as a society and this is possibly not what our listeners come to us for, but it's something I've been reflecting on today. I think that there is there is a speed addiction and a kind of new thing and a drama and a trauma and a sort of dopamine addiction that we're all developing with our devices. And it's all going fast, and it might be bad, but we also kind of on some level like it, and we keep looking away and we want something exciting to happen on our phones. And there's something fundamentally different, I think, happening with our relationship with technology that is changing our relationship with politics and the way it's becoming entertainment. And I think actually there's something about it that's become slightly addictive that we're getting drawn towards that is a much deeper shift that's happening in society that is profoundly concerning, because it prevents us from being able to be quiet with where we are, and it keeps us engaged in this churn. And I think Trump is an extreme example of that. And we're going straight back into it now.

Paul: [00:05:24] Yeah. And just to throw in there, you know, a lot of people on, on Twitter as was now called X, you know, that's been a sort of huge thing, the kind of chattering classes of the world have spent a lot of time on that amazing platform purchased by Elon Musk, renamed X. And then after Musk came out in favour of Trump, the sort of Twitter algorithms were turned, the $44 billion propaganda machine and, you know, a lot of people who might have had different political views became very pro-Trump. So, you know, it's not just kind of like the general noise of technology, but technology with a big arrow on it pointing in a specific direction and sending people.

Tom: [00:06:04] True.

Christiana: [00:06:05] Well, I don't argue with that, and I've been musing on something a little bit different. And that is the incredibly dangerous and yet powerful tagline Trump will fix it. And just it. And Trump will fix it allows everyone to find a place for themselves. Because if I have a problem with whatever it is, I have a problem with my neighbor. I have a problem with the person who's selling me the bread. I have a problem with the price of bread. I have a problem with whatever it is. Then the tagline, and of course, I mean, I'm just using small examples, but if I have a problem with people coming in from other countries, if I have a problem with women deciding about what they want to do with their bodies, Trump will fix it, was actually a brilliant tagline because it doesn't refer to anything, and by not referring to anything, it refers to everything that is important to me because then I interpret what the it is for me.

Paul: [00:07:20] You know, the real danger is that we go down this long kind of road of sort of managed democracy towards a Putin style state. But the reason I mentioned that is because Vladimir Putin does actually have phone ins where the public phone in and Putin kind of writes it down, and then and then sort of says he's going to fix it because he wants to communicate that that kind of sort of universal power of the head of state to resolve the problems of the people. And he wants to give them little examples of that on television.

Tom: [00:07:46] Now we should get into climate implications, which is possibly what listeners are here to, to listen from us, to from us. And we'll, we'll take that in two parts, both domestic implications and international. Just before we do, there's just a couple of statistics that really shocked me from the election, one is that he won the popular vote by 5 million votes right. This is this is not the same as when he got in last time, when he squeaked through with 77,000 majority in various swing states. He won decisively. He swept the swing states. He won by 5 million votes. This is completely different. He won the Senate, possibly with 54 seats. We'll see when that comes in. He may well have won the house. And of course, he has a.

Paul: [00:08:31] Very likely the trifecta.

Tom: [00:08:32] And the majority in the Supreme Court.

Christiana: [00:08:35] Supreme Court, all four.

Tom: [00:08:37] Supreme Court. Latinos voted 65% for Trump. This was a massive swing towards Trump amongst the Latino population. And the final one, I don't know if you guys have any that you want to share. I saw a map on CNN as I was watching overnight, and they showed the US map highlighting every county in which Harris performed more than three points better than Biden. How many how many counties do you think were on that map?

Christiana: [00:09:06] Probably not very many.

Tom: [00:09:08] Zero.

Christiana: [00:09:10] Zero?

Tom: [00:09:11] Zero. It was a collapse. It was a collapse of the left of centre agenda, of the progressive agenda, of the issues that we think of as central. And now Trump doesn't look like an anomaly. Biden looks like a midpoint, you know, when they write the history of Biden, it will be in the context of Trump, right. That there was this Trump that Biden interspersed the two Trump presidencies.

Paul: [00:09:35] The Biden sandwich.

Christiana: [00:09:36] Bookended.

Tom: [00:09:37] The Biden sandwich, he will be an important player in the Trump story is what it will be.

Paul: [00:09:41] You know, of course, Kamala Harris had a specific problem, which was it was very hard for her to speak about things. And the reason is because an awful lot of people in the country were very worried that if Trump got in, he would abuse power. She was at the top of a coalition that had Bernie Sanders at one end and Dick Cheney at the other end. We've never seen anything like it. This was a, you know, just like vast numbers of people right across the political spectrum, extremely afraid of Donald Trump getting elected. And I think it limited her ability to speak freely about policy. I mean, it's a small technical point, but I think it's one that's important.

Christiana: [00:10:14] Well, that that may be Paul. But I think also, if you extrapolate the lesson from communications on climate change, for those who want to see the oil and gas and the coal industry live on forever and ever, the message is very, very clear, their tactic is delay climate policy, delay climate policy, delay climate policy. It used to be deny. It's no longer deny. It's just delay delay delay. For us who want to see it accelerated, we don't have one message, one tactic. We have this plethora, right. This is better for jobs. This is better for energy security. This is better because it's more efficient. They're more they are more competitive on and on and on and on and on. And the simplicity this is this is the thing. The conservatives have a very simplistic message tagline Trump will fix it. And what was her tagline, her tagline was one that we embrace because it is about human rights. It's about women's rights. It's about inclusivity. It's about a better world. But it doesn't quite make it into the elevator pitch.

Tom: [00:11:33] No.

Christiana: [00:11:34] Whereas he or they put their message and their tactics into half an elevator pitch. And we with all our complexity, because we understand that all these issues are interlinked and we feel the need to explain that in this, you know, in, in absolutely harrowing detail.

Tom: [00:11:55] It turns out no one's listening.

Christiana: [00:11:56] And we lose people. We lose people halfway through because all they want is three words. Trump will fix it. Done. 

Tom: [00:12:03] Yeah. Make America great again, 4, 3 or 4.

Christiana: [00:12:05] Even simpler.

Tom: [00:12:06] Yeah. Well, as you say, there will be a million pieces of political analysis looking at what happened here and why it happened, and the fact that we saw these big swings. The Republican Party can now claim to be a multiracial party. There are all these big new realities that will be picked apart by political analysts focused on this with much more experience than us. But what we can do is talk to you about the implications for climate. So we're going to take this in two parts domestic policy and international policy. Which would you like to take first?

Christiana: [00:12:34] Domestic. 

Tom: [00:12:35] Domestic. All right. So domestic policy. First thing to say here is that it looks like Trump will have enough votes to appoint whoever he wants to run the agencies. That is a big deal, because if there's real scrutiny over who runs the Environmental Protection Agency or these other different entities, then there is some form of balance. If he does end up having enough votes to do that, then he can put whoever he wants there. And we've seen that actually the previous appointments that were sort of much more traditional Republican appointments, were pretty bad. We ain't seen nothing yet. This is going to be a series of, I think, even more extreme MAGA Republican positions. So we should brace ourselves who are going to be running these agencies. So that's the first thing. The second piece is the Inflation Reduction Act, which of course.

Christiana: [00:13:21] Wait, before before you go to the to the IRA, not only can he put whoever he wants, how about defunding, significantly defunding EPA?

Tom: [00:13:32] Yeah, 100%, why not.

Christiana: [00:13:34] Very easily.

Tom: [00:13:35] Yeah, very easily done.

Christiana: [00:13:36] He could significantly defund EPA. Significantly defund AID, significantly pull back resources from international development banks, from international organizations, all of this thing, everything that is the presence of the United States internationally will be domestically curtailed.

Tom: [00:13:59] So one of the project 2025, which, of course, is the think tank background that Steve Bannon has been running, that Trump suddenly appears to know what it is. But before the election, he claimed to have nothing to do with it. Was saying was the idea of defunding and shutting down the weather service. They don't like the fact that there is meteorological information which is being provided, which sometimes talks about climate and impacts. And I was at a reception today here in London, and I met somebody who was the CEO of a different service, and that person told me that they have had inquiries today from branches of the US government, military branches of the US government inquiring about whether that service could provide them with meteorological information in the context of the fact that the US government is no longer collecting it themselves.

Paul: [00:14:48] Do you want one other domestic consideration, which is a wild card?

Tom: [00:14:53] All right.

Paul: [00:14:53] We have kind of certainly the largest manufacturer of electric vehicles in North America who would have said that they were much inspired by climate change, Elon Musk, as close to the administration. So you can call me naïve, but I'm going to hold out hope that electrification of vehicles is not going to stall under the Trump administration, given the huge amount of support to Trump was given by Musk, and Tesla stock rose today quite significantly.

Tom: [00:15:21] Well, that's an interesting perspective because that does take us to, you know, federal support for the transition, including $7,500 per new electric vehicle. Now, it's an interesting question, and it's one of the things we should watch in terms of whether that is gutted or repealed because you're right, the presence of Elon Musk and he talked about him even in his acceptance speech will be an interesting indicator.

Christiana: [00:15:42] Yeah, for a long time.

Tom: [00:15:42] For a, for an alarmingly long time.

Paul: [00:15:45] And I think Musk had a huge impact on the election with the rockets and the Teslas, the sort of psychic ability of him to shore up the kind of slightly failing edifice of Trump. But sorry, I was interrupting, Tom.

Tom: [00:15:56] No no, so.

Christiana: [00:15:57] Tom, you were also going to talk about the IRA and whether there's going to be clawbacks on that?

Tom: [00:16:01] Yes. So let's get into that. So the Inflation Reduction Act, obviously, was the signature piece of legislation that enabled the US to really begin to accelerate on reducing emissions. I've been looking into this and speaking to some people who know much more about this than I do in the US, and they say, actually, given the way that it's structured and the need for legislative engagement and the fact that many of the commercial benefits are already flowing to red states in the south of the US, who may not want to see major changes in the policy that are providing them with economic benefit. It's pretty unlikely is the current consensus that we will see a complete repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act, even though that's what Trump has said. However, what we are likely to see is significant nibbling away at the underlying financing, the structure, the permitting rules, all of the other aspects that actually make the Inflation Reduction Act work. So I think we are likely to see a continued implementation of it, but with much less enthusiasm and momentum. What do you think about that, Christiana?

Christiana: [00:17:04] Yeah, I would say sort of continued implementation but without any legs.

Tom: [00:17:09] Right.

Christiana: [00:17:10] And whatever, whatever funding and you remember the very interesting conversation we had with Gina McCarthy here on this, on this podcast when she, shared with us how the EPA was hurrying up to allocate as much of the funding of the IRA as possible because they were worried about any clawbacks should Trump get in. The point is that whatever, whatever is not allocated by the time he gets in is in danger of being clawed back as far as they can. And as you say, the whole policy environment that facilitates and enables the impact and the benefits of the IRA will be significantly cut, significantly cut.

Tom: [00:18:00] So within that, what is also true is that wind and solar are economically beneficial on their own right in most parts of the US based on current energy prices, cost of installation of solar and wind. Of course, you need permitting and all of these other things that the federal government can make difficult. But I think it is also true to say that we will continue to see a clean energy boom in the US, even if Trump tries to put these roadblocks in place, but it will be I don't know, what do you call a slightly more muted boom? A poof. You know, something that's a little a little less sort of enthusiastic than a boom because I think he won't kill it completely, but I think he will put some real brakes on it.

Christiana: [00:18:40] Well, it'll be whatever the private sector can push forward on themselves right. This is, on their own. This is not going to be so, you know, this is clearly the discussion that we've been having for a long time. Is it policy or is it the economy? And, and in the best of all cases, it's both together and helping them helping each other. And in this case, it's not going to be politics, it's going to be the economy. And so corporates and the financial sector will have to figure out where where are they better served and, and push forward. So it's not going to I don't think it's going to be as, as enthusiastic a corporate sector push forward as it was under Trump's first presidency, because I think there will be more barriers built up, but there will definitely be some some players in the finance world and in the corporate world that continue to push forward because they know, sorry to say this, that it's only four years, and that the fact is that a single event does not, disastrous as it is for us and consequential as it is, it is an event, and four years constitute an event versus a trajectory, which is what we have. So decarbonisation of the global economy, not just the US economy, the decarbonisation of the global economy is the trajectory that we have, and that is not going to turn around. That is not going to, going to change the direction of the of of decarbonisation will not change the pace in the United States will. Which brings me to international. But I don't know if you wanted to say anything else domestic?

Paul: [00:20:30] Just one thing about domestic. I mean, it's about domestic US, everything you've just said. The consequence of that, of course, is that the Green Deal team at the European Commission are now suddenly they've got a huge opportunity. Japan has a huge opportunity. China has in some ways a bigger opportunity. Latin America, Africa. So, you know, you can squeeze US corporations for four years, but you're going to get so many more opportunities for companies outside the US to fill that gap and just really move in. So that's exciting in a way.

Tom: [00:20:57] So we should definitely turn to international. Just one more quick thing on domestic is he also, for those of you who watched his acceptance speech, will have seen he made a big deal of saying RFK Jr is now apparently in charge of all sorts of things, including making America healthy again and, but he said, I'll let you do anything you want, Bobby, except don't touch the liquid gold. I need to get the liquid gold. Talking about enhancing oil production, I mean, the hilarious thing there is that under Biden, the US has become the world's largest producer of oil and gas, thanks to a drilling boom in fields in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico. It's very hard to see, despite the bluster, that Trump can actually increase that any further because there's been so much acceleration under Biden already. That's not necessarily a good news story, but it speaks to the way in which he's using rhetoric to tell his narrative rather than reality. But we shall see. I mean, I suppose there's ANWR and the Arctic reserves maybe he's thinking about that. So international, there's a lot to be said here. And, Christiana, I suppose we should probably start with the US role on the world stage, NDC's, finance. How do you want to go into this?

Christiana: [00:22:04] Yeah well, so so much to say here, but, it is very sad to already foresee that the United States will be pretty well isolated on the international stage because under Trump, they'll be cozying up to to Russia. They'll be cozying up to North Korea. It's very, very sad how the free world, to use a rather simplistic term, how the free world will be, will feel pushed away and will push themselves away increasingly from the United States. And that covers everything that covers the United Nations, that covers development banks, that covers NATO, that covers G20. The entire multilateral international structure will really have a very odd, if you will, a very, very odd player among them that will not command any respect. I think he will once again, and in fact even more be the laughingstock of the international opinion. But he is the president of the United States, and so it makes it very uncomfortable because you can't completely laugh him out. You can't completely turn the microphone off. You have to sit there and and and listen to what he says and what he does. But it's going to be very difficult for anyone to take him seriously. And yet they have to, because he's the president of the United States.

Paul: [00:23:56] I mean, to me, the issue is all about democracy. I mean, there's a horrible vector between a world, you know, with, with, with an accelerating US, the Harris administration, globally, decarbonization would have happened faster. And I'm very upset about the loss of life, which could be measured in the millions or tens of millions. We don't know between those two, but we have to move on and think about the positive things. But I think on this point about democracy, you know, will US democracy be threatened, and there's something we could say about that. Just to remember, democracy is a system to remove your leader. And the thing that defines Russia is Vladimir Putin cannot be removed by his people. Unfortunately, what defines Xi Jinping is Xi Jinping cannot be really removed by the people. And so we need to make sure that everyone is focused on maintaining US democracy through what may be a very challenging period, because we know Trump admires Orbán and people of that character, and it's a boost, you know, the biggest threat to dictators, of course, is a successful democracy. And therefore, I think some dictators are going to be sleeping a little bit better in their beds tonight.

Tom: [00:24:56] So let's just look at specifically some of the implications because obviously we're going to COP 29 next week, in, which is happening, or I am, in Baku, which is supposed to be a precursor to COP 30 next year, we have national step ups. I mean, the US was anticipated to do a few things. One was in a Harris administration, there would have been a new US nationally determined commitment that would have come out in the first quarter of next year. There probably would have been a US China joint agreement setting the parameters of the new level of agreement that was going to come out, sending signals to the world about levels of ambition they're going to support and how they're going to move forward together. That is gone. There would theoretically have been a new quantified climate goal, a new collective quantified goal on finance that was supposed to be negotiated in Baku, that would talk about the successor to the 100 billion, the famous 100 billion that was agreed in Copenhagen that was supposed to be delivered in 2020. This year is the deadline in the Paris Agreement for agreeing the next target. And finally, what I have also heard from multiple people, and it's in the project 2025 analysis, is that the US president has legal authority unilaterally to pull the United States out of a treaty, which would include the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, but to get back into that treaty would require a supermajority of Senate approval, which is 67 votes. So if Trump, with his new legal analysis, pulls out not just of the Paris Agreement, but also of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, then the.

Christiana: [00:26:30] Which is above the Paris Agreement Tom, just for our listeners to understand right. So the convention has two legal agreements, the Kyoto Protocol that nobody remembers in this world except for me and the Paris Agreement. And in his first presidency, by executive order, he pulled out of the Paris Agreement, not out of the convention, which is the superior legal agreement. And what Tom is saying now is that he may not think that it's enough to pull out of the Paris Agreement, which he will do for sure, but that he would actually reach up and pull the United States out of the convention itself.

Tom: [00:27:09] And and that is a larger signal on the on the world stage. And it's also a more difficult one to reverse. You can't just come in as a new president and rejoin the United Nations climate convention. You have to have this large majority in the Senate, which makes it to all practical terms and, you know, a permanent withdrawal. So my question is.

Paul: [00:27:28] Well I'm going to stop you there Tom, because extreme weather is freaking out people. And, you know, we'll hear more from the congresswoman shortly but.

Tom: [00:27:33] Okay no no, sure. But 67 senators, you know, we'll see. But for now, in the current politics a permanent withdrawal. So my question is, you know, we're no longer in 2015. We're not negotiating big collective deals. This is about national commitment for the in the global interest. The US can say, all right we're out. But economically still making efforts to reduce emissions because that's the direction the fundamental economics is turning. Yes, there might be a bit slowed, but cities and states will be involved. There'll still be investment. There'll still be extreme weather, as you've said Paul. To what degree does it matter if the US does all of that?

Christiana: [00:28:14] It matters if you put any chips on multilateralism.

Tom: [00:28:22] Aha!

Christiana: [00:28:23] For those of us who believe in international collaboration, for those of us who believe in multilateral efforts, then it matters. For those who don't think that that matters at all, it's not that big a deal. And what I think is going to be really interesting here is how does China react to this?

Tom: [00:28:46] Yeah.

Christiana: [00:28:46] Because China has two feet and with one foot, it is very much wanting to be a part of the multilateral structure, the multilateral politics, and be recognized as a leader, if not the leader, certainly of developing countries. On the other hand, when the United States throws its toys out of the pram like this, China just goes like, well, too bad I don't want to play with you anyway.

Tom: [00:29:21] Yeah.

Christiana: [00:29:23] And this opens up for China, as Paul was saying before, this opens up an incredible opportunity for China. I was just speaking to someone who just came back from China and had spent two days at the new BYD factory. She says that it is like stepping into another planet. It is incredible what the Chinese are doing on electric vehicles. They are planning to take over the world, and the only ones who could compete with them maybe would be the US. If the US is not going to compete, Tesla or no Tesla. China can just take over. And as we know, for the reason that Paul is saying that, you know, if you have a storm and we're in the middle of a storm, even if you build a house of cards, which is what the United States is going to be building now for the for the next four years, the storm is still raging there. It doesn't mean that if you hide in the house of cards that you have gotten rid of the storm, the storm is still raging and other countries are preparing to actually address the storm. And the fact that somebody is going to be hiding in their house of cards for four years just gives China so much more opportunity to take over the economic and job creation opportunities that come with addressing climate change. So, you know, whether whether China believes and and and they do in the increasing severity and frequency of of these disastrous events. But more than that, what they really see is the economic opportunity. And if they don't have to worry about the United States, even if the United States says we're going to put tariffs and we're not going to take anything from the Chinese, it's a big world out there. I am telling you, it's a big world. And China is much better placed to export to other countries than anyone else.

Paul: [00:31:23] By the way, for those who are not so familiar with BYD, until recently, Tesla was the largest manufacturer of electric vehicles in the world. But BYD has overtaken Tesla and is now the largest manufacturer of electric vehicles in the world. Look, no, you're absolutely right. And I think if the US were to do something as absurd as pull out of the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement and all this kind of stuff, then people are just going to sort of say, well, look, you know, I may have my problems with China in some regards. Maybe you don't like aspects of the system there, but the US is being completely crazy. I think it's going to just make a huge increase in appetite for Chinese vehicles, Chinese renewables and and you know, I'm glad that some good will come from this. And I'm just going to throw in here that the thing that we definitely saw in 2016 that we're going to see again, and that is the significant increase in the importance of non-state actors, because suddenly global corporations, global financial institutions, cities, states, regions, they're now the custodians of the norms that the international system is failing to deliver, and they will rise up. And all of our listeners who work in those realms, you know, take this and be far more ambitious in terms of how you interact with these, these issues, because kind of now is our time and, and and just a final thing on that, what the US electorate have shown is there's a massive appetite for change, much bigger than anyone appreciated. And we can bank that and we can say, well, look, we lost this, right. I picked up this, this, this famous phrase, what is it, this person said, they won, we lost, next. So we can bank that desire for change and see how we can make it work for us.

Tom: [00:32:57] So just to go back to the Chinese thing for a second. I mean, I agree with that, but I would also point out they have their own politics to manage, right. I mean, and for a long time they've been saying it's not fair. We should be allowed to decarbonize. We shouldn't have to bear the burden with all of that old style language of dealing with climate, not talking about opportunity. And so politically, even though it's a dictatorship, they still have to worry about public opinion, it can be hard, as you know better than anyone.

Christiana: [00:33:22] Yeah, but it's not a burden, when you see it from that perspective Tom, it's not a burden.

Tom: [00:33:26] Yeah, no no, but.

Christiana: [00:33:27] The fact that they are taking over the market, they have a huge internal market and they're taking over the international market. And furthermore, here is my incredible point about BYD. Do you know that they have already incorporated blade batteries into the little BYD cars that are cheaper than anything else, including the cost of a blade battery. I mean, get ready. China is going to take over.

Tom: [00:33:53] Wow. But your point is predicated on being able to shift public perception to seeing this as an opportunity to be grasped. And that's the political work that's going to need to happen.

Christiana: [00:34:01] Public perception where?

Tom: [00:34:03] Well, anywhere, anywhere, any country that now says we are going to jump in and go further and faster in the absence of US engagement, that government has to be able to convince their population that this is in their current economic interest. 

Christiana: [00:34:17] Except in China.

Tom: [00:34:17] I mean, they still care about public opinion. You see all the air pollution stuff where people are worried about that.

Christiana: [00:34:22] But, but, do you know how many jobs are being created in China?

Tom: [00:34:25] No, no, I'm agreeing with you, but I'm just pointing out that to get to your strategy, you're going to have to find a way to make, and that's what we're missing all around the world.

Paul: [00:34:31] There's a very easy way, there's an easy way, Tom. You tell the public of whatever country this is how much money we're sending out of the country to buy oil. Okay, a very quick proof.

Tom: [00:34:40] Well that argument hasn't worked in any other country that I can think of Paul, you say it's very easy, but, I mean, we can put that in the UK and say, how much are we spending on oil and gas imports from other countries. It hasn't changed the politics in the UK. That's true of any country. I mean, yes, national domestic energy security is important, but it hasn't been enough to shift the narrative.

Paul: [00:34:59] Well, no it has. We have enormous wind farms. We have enormous renewables. We have loads of electric vehicles, you're just plain wrong, Tom.

Tom: [00:35:06] Has it got, have we done enough to get to that point and really delve into.

Paul: [00:35:10] Well, when we all say we've done enough on this podcast, I'm going to bake us a little cake. How about that?

Tom: [00:35:13] All right, ok well.

Paul: [00:35:15] Let's go to our interview because we should hear from someone in the front line.

Tom: [00:35:18] Let's go to that interview. Okay, so we are now going to pivot to a fantastic interview with a brilliant friend. So here we go. So, we have obviously this has been a difficult day. It's difficult news. And we've been digging into that for the last half an hour, 40 minutes. But we wanted to also bring you something inspirational.

Christiana: [00:35:40] That's an understatement Tom.

Tom: [00:35:41] That's an understatement. But we wanted to bring you something inspirational. And we have exactly the thing. So a few years ago, Christiana and I were privileged to work with a completely brilliant young woman called Yassamin Ansari, who at the time was working in the office of the Secretary-General of the United Nations Ban Ki-moon in the years leading up to the Paris Agreement. Yassamin then came and did many things, but including working with us at mission 2020 for a few years, where she continued to present her brilliance. And then she said, you know, I feel called to actually step up for public office, which is a difficult thing to do. This is when she was still in her late 20s. She went on and ran for city council, became vice mayor, and today she has been appointed or elected Congresswoman-Elect for Arizona's third congressional district. Yassamin Ansari, welcome to Outrage + Optimism. Congratulations on your election.

Paul: [00:36:36] Welcome Congresswoman.

Yassamin Ansari: [00:36:37] Thank you for having me.

Christiana: [00:36:38] We are so excited for you. We're so proud of you. Wow.

Yassamin Ansari: [00:36:44] Thank you.

Christiana: [00:36:45] It really is, you have been the sunshine. The only sunshine in the whole day.

Paul: [00:36:51] You're the yin in the yang of today, if I might say so.

Tom: [00:36:53] No pressure. It's so lovely to see you, honestly, we have been so, inspired and impressed by your rise, your dedication, and the work you've done. And this is just reward that you have won this consequential election. Welcome to the podcast. How are you feeling today?

Yassamin Ansari: [00:37:09] Well, first of all, it's an honor to be on this podcast as someone who's been a fan for many years. So thank you so much for having me. I'm feeling really, really excited, you know, about my race in particular.

Christiana: [00:37:22] I thought you were first going to say exhausted.

Tom: [00:37:25] You must be.

Yassamin Ansari: [00:37:27] Very very exhausted, it's been a long, no, I first launched my campaign for this seat in April of 2023. So it's been a full year and a half of just madness. So I'm really happy to be on the other side of it. And I had an incredible, you know, team of young people who made it possible. So I'm just very grateful to them too, the people I met along the way during this process.

Christiana: [00:37:49] And then you said you were excited.

Yassamin Ansari: [00:37:54] I'm excited. I'm excited of course. You know, I know you all were talking about the the presidential. It's definitely, you know, a devastating blow, but, you know, I think in the spirit of being outraged but optimistic, I am looking at the class of freshmen who have been elected and will be, you know, joining me next year. And it's an inspiring group of people. People from all different walks of life with really interesting backgrounds and experiences. We're seeing more and more members of Congress with climate experience coming in as well, which is great. And, you know, unique. So, you know, it's a good group. And the I think that, you know, the last time Trump was elected two years later in 2018, is the first time we saw this first wave of young, diverse candidates running for public office across the country. I personally probably never would have run for office if Donald Trump hadn't been elected, and so I'm sure we'll see that, too. Yeah, I mean, think about it. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was the first in 2018, you know, with with a few others. And now there's now there's there's a couple of us in our 30s who will be there. So it's it's better than it's ever been in terms of, younger, younger people. But, yeah, there's there's definitely a lot to be hopeful for.

Paul: [00:39:13] It's the grit that makes the pearl. And we just got like a whole truckload of grit. So think of all these pearls that will come.

Yassamin Ansari: [00:39:19] Exactly, exactly.

Tom: [00:39:21] Christiana, you want to come in?

Christiana: [00:39:22] Well, Yassamin, I was wondering, you've been on the on the campaign trail for, as you say, over a year. And in in addition to being, I would say, against something that has been very damaging. What have been your 2 or 3 major topics that you have put out to the electorate and that have made you the chosen candidate?

Yassamin Ansari: [00:39:53] So, you know, in Arizona and across the US, reproductive freedom has been a huge, huge issue across the board. And I would say I definitely have been campaigning and talking about, you know, the importance of a woman's right to choose and having access to abortion care in Arizona. You know, one other piece of good news that came from this election is that we passed proposition 139, which enshrined access to abortion care in our Arizona state constitution. It passed pretty overwhelmingly, which is a big deal. So that is really exciting. I also very openly campaigned on climate policies. You know, when I was on the city council, I, you know, another huge reason why I ran for office. I did a lot of work. I passed our first ever transportation electrification plan. We have one of the most ambitious fleet transition plans in the country. So I talked a lot to voters about that and the work we did to get our first electric buses on the road, the work we did to install public charging infrastructure, the work we did to plant more trees and, you know, adapt to extreme heat that is already here.

Yassamin Ansari: [00:41:00] So I found these issues really resonate with with with our constituents. And people are very concerned about extreme heat and the, you know, impact that's going to continue to have. They're really concerned about air pollution and the public health impacts of that as well. So I really hope to be able to be in a position to continue to work on climate when I'm in Congress, it's, you know, it's going to be challenging, of course, with with what we're going to be facing, but I still hope there's going to be opportunity there. And then finally, the the third biggest issue, and these are in no order, but housing affordability is a huge issue, not only in Phoenix but across the country right now. There's a big housing supply crisis, you know, in Phoenix, we have about 200,000 units short, we're 200,000 units short of the amount of housing we need, in relation to demand. And so it's really driving costs up. And people are really feeling it.

Christiana: [00:41:56] Especially for young people, I'm assuming Yassamin?

Yassamin Ansari: [00:41:59] Absolutely. But really everyone I mean, it's it's nearly impossible to consider buying a home if you're young. But in general rent is really high so we're seeing increased homelessness on the streets. And that's causing, you know, concern for a lot of our residents as well. So, I at least found on the city council that both transportation, electrification and housing, we were able to work in a bipartisan manner and work with both Democrats and Republicans on these issues. Congress, unfortunately, tends to be a little bit more polar, polarizing and and difficult. But having that experience at the city level does make me somewhat hopeful that on those two issues, we'll be able to get something done even without being in the majority.

Paul: [00:42:46] As a strikingly successful politician, if I might say so, congratulations. Do you think that there's a lesson that there is more scope to discuss climate change with electorates in different countries around the world? You seem to have found it a vote winning issue?

Yassamin Ansari: [00:42:59] I have, I think it's a matter of and I know, you know, everyone on this podcast is an expert on this, but I think it's just a matter of how you talk about it too, right. Like sometimes I'm not necessarily using the words climate change, but I'm talking about air pollution. I mean, people can feel that they, you know, are getting asthma. People can see their kids who didn't have asthma before get asthma, or people can, you know, are seeing that lung cancer rates are are going up in the community. And so, you know, I talk about air pollution and then the heat is just undeniable in Phoenix we had triple degree days well into October. And, it's unheard of. And, you know, hundreds of people die each year in Phoenix because of extreme heat. And so one of the things that's been happening in our local politics is a lot of calls on FEMA to declare extreme heat a natural disaster, to unlock that federal funding, to be able to deal with it as such.

Tom: [00:43:56] Yassamin, I mean, we are well aware of your considerable diplomatic skills from all those years ago, and they're about to be tested in extremis as you head into an incredibly divided Congress. But I did hear the other day that the Conservative Climate Caucus is one of the caucuses that has been growing most significantly in recent years.

Yassamin Ansari: [00:44:16] Interesting.

Tom: [00:44:17] I mean, as you as you head to Capitol Hill, will will that be your plan? How do you reach out across the aisle? How do you try and build alignment? Do you see that that's a path worth taking? What glimmers of possibility are you seeing in that direction?

Yassamin Ansari: [00:44:32] Well, it has to be, frankly. I mean, if we don't try, then it will be impossible to get anything done. So I see it as twofold. I mean, there's no doubt that there's going to be a lot of work that has to be done to stand up to Trump and his extremism. And, you know, it's it's terrifying to think of him having unchecked power if if Democrats don't win the House majority. And that has still not been called officially. So we'll see. But, so there's going to be undoubtedly standing up to Trump that will have to happen. But at the same time, it is my hope to find Republicans who are willing to work on issues to get things done, we have to do that. And, you know, I really think it's going to be important to just in general, as human beings, we have to start talking to each other more and being open and willing to have the difficult conversations, politics continues to tear families apart here in the US. And, you know, I just, and I've struggled with it as well. Like, I have had family members that I, you know, disagree with politically and it's it's really hard not to get emotional about it. But if there's anything I've already taken away from the results last night is we have to do that, in order to move forward.

Christiana: [00:45:51] Right.

Tom: [00:45:51] Yeah. And I mean, one more question from me. The US will play a different role on the world stage now. You know, that's a sort of understatement of the year. But, you know, the people that, that are going to be affected by this through the UN, through international institutions, you know, all these people personally. What would your message be to them in the aftermath of what happened yesterday in the US?

Yassamin Ansari: [00:46:11] Oh, that's so tough, Tom. You know, I think, you know, I know it was very difficult during the first Trump presidency for our partners around the world to feel that they could trust us again, after, you know, they felt betrayed by us, you know, pulling out of the Paris Climate Agreement, by completely defying so many norms and not supporting international institutions. I'm very worried about that, but for, you know, this is this is the reality of of democracy. We're going to when you leave the power, you know, to people and which is what this country is based on, someone you may disagree with completely could win the election. And I just hope that no matter what's to come, I hope that, our international partners know that they do have partners in the United States, in the House of Representatives and the US Senate just on the ground and civil society. And we we will turn this around. I mean, there's there's no question we will turn this around. I think, as Democrats, I do feel like there's kind of a reckoning that has to happen within the party of what is it that what what are we doing wrong. I mean, we're clearly not getting our message out there the right way or not talking about the issues that people want to hear about. So we do have to improve that. But I, have not lost all hope for the future. And I think that, you know, we just need to work harder. We need to organize. And that includes organizing with our international partners as well.

Paul: [00:47:42] Can I ask a last question? You know, we have a lot of listeners outside of the USA and across the the oceans as you can kind of imagine, it looks a bit kind of like, how could that happen? And if just because you've got such immediate experience of talking to so many fellow citizens, if you could just give a kind of insight for somebody outside of the US, it's kind of like, surely, you know, that wouldn't happen. And it kind of has done so just it's obviously it's something you could write ten PhD thesis about, but just a headline for someone who maybe doesn't know the USA so well?

Christiana: [00:48:15] Are you trying to ask this poor woman to explain the election results?

Tom: [00:48:20] Yeah, shorthand for Paul's question, what the hell just happened?

Paul: [00:48:23] Yeah, that's that's the question, yeah, yeah, I'm in a I'm in a little old kind of, you know, but I mean, a lot of people, you know, they watch TV and they kind of like, well, of course, you know, they couldn't possibly like Trump. And of course he's been elected. So just like, just like the headline. But I'll spare you the whole article. But the headline.

Yassamin Ansari: [00:48:38] I mean, I woke up asking myself this question today. And to your point, I think there's going to be endless analyses and postmortem conversations about this. But, look, I think, I think that the economy became a huge, huge issue. And I think it was very difficult, even though, factually speaking, I can tell you, you know, factually, that the top economists in this country said that a Harris presidency would be better for the economy than a Trump presidency. Yet people are struggling, many, many Americans are struggling. There's been significant price gouging by corporations. Inflation is high. And I think at the end of the day, no matter what demographic you came from, a lot of people, you know, were voting on that issue. I also have had to learn that, honestly, like the vast majority of people just aren't in the same bubble that some of us are politically. Like, to me it seems inexplicable because I live and breathe this right. I know every detail of what Trump is saying and what he's doing and following all of his former, you know, chiefs of staff who have said this guy is a fascist and how could you vote for him. But honestly, like when I go out and talk to people at their doors, I realize that most people aren't listening to all of that. They're busy. They're they're doing their thing every day. And like, they're seeing the, the, you know, just one glimpse of it, you know right, one headline they're seeing, and that's it. And so that's another thing that we really have to figure out is like how to really connect with people again, because I think a lot of people just don't aren't paying attention politically in that way. And then, honestly, I would be remiss if I didn't say that, I do think that it is still, unfortunately, very challenging to be a woman running for president. I, I just like that that is 100% a part of it as well, which is really sad to say. And I really thought that the country was ready but. 

Christiana: [00:50:41] Sad truth.

Yassamin Ansari: [00:50:42] Yeah.

Christiana: [00:50:43] Sad truth.

Christiana: [00:50:44] Yassamin, thank you so much. Thank you for for taking the time late at night when actually, what you really want to be doing is crawling under your pillow and getting some rest for the first time in months and months and months. So thank you very much for joining us. We will be following your fantastic trajectory. We will probably invite you back on the podcast once you get your feet under the table. But for now, congratulations.

Tom: [00:51:08] And thank you finally for running. You know, that's a hard decision for anyone to make, not enough brilliant people.

Christiana: [00:51:14] Yes, very courageous.

Tom: [00:51:15] Not enough brilliant people do what you've done, and it's a brave thing to do and you should be rewarded for it. And congratulations.

Yassamin Ansari: [00:51:21] Thank you so much. That means a lot, thank you guys.

Christiana: [00:51:24] So good to see you Yas.

Yassamin Ansari: [00:51:25] So good to see you, bye.

Tom: [00:51:27] Thank you, thanks so much. Bye.

Yassamin Ansari: [00:51:29] Bye.

Tom: [00:51:38] So I mean, how inspirational is Yassamin Ansari? Huge that she's now in the House of Representatives. What did you both take from that?

Christiana: [00:51:44] Well, you know, you know, Tom, I am, and I'm in South Africa at the Earthshot Prize. And we had so many young African leaders here. And every day I'm just really humbled by the next generation, truly humbled to see the leadership, the the stubbornness that they bring. It's like we know what kind of world we want. We are going to fight for it. We're going to work for it. I am just honestly on my knees, inspired, grateful, just in total admiration of so many in that in that younger generation that are just not going to give up no matter what. So great.

Tom: [00:52:29] Yeah, I, I mean, I, I think that Yassamin represents something which is quite rare in this world, which is a young person who is, well, maybe that's not fair to say it's rare, who is really.

Christiana: [00:52:43] No, I was going to say, it's not rare, that's the beautiful part. 

Tom: [00:52:43] It's not rare is it.

Paul: [00:52:43] It's quite the reverse, that was Christiana's point.

Tom: [00:52:47] It's not, yeah, but I was actually thinking about going into politics as the rare element. I mean, the ubiquitous element is huge passion, willingness to dive in and make any commitment, any sacrifice. But going into politics is pretty thankless at the moment. I mean, the US Congress is very.

Christiana: [00:53:01] Yes, that's very true, that is very true.

Tom: [00:53:02] Very untrusted in the US. I mean, the degree of vitriol, I don't know many Congress people, but they say the amount of death threats and aggression and negativity that they get all the time is pretty high, and and she knows that. Of course she does. And she's got her eyes open and she's gone in because she sees this is a place where she wants to serve. She wants to have an impact. And she's really fought for this. I mean, she's fought for it for a number of years. She's risen through the ranks. City councilwoman, vice mayor, congressional nominee, and now Congresswoman-Elect. It's hugely inspiring, and I think we will watch her future career with great interest. And I think we should probably just point out that we know that everybody is feeling really on their knees today. This is a really difficult day.

Paul: [00:53:53] Yeah.

Tom: [00:53:54] There's no denying that this has been a heavy defeat, both for Harris and also for the agenda of of things that we care about. And we've all felt that, and we're all dealing with it in our own way. But one thing that I would say is that I have gone through enough crushing defeats in my career of things I care about, to know that the implications kind of come at you in waves as you think about new implications. And what does this mean for that, and what about the Supreme Court and. Et cetera. Et cetera. And you just have to give yourself a moment to go through that. It will pass. You'll settle down, you'll breathe into it, you'll go for a walk, and some spaciousness will come the other side as you're able to sort of accept that this is the new reality that we're facing. Or maybe you accept that you're at a point where you can't accept that this is the new reality that we're facing, but even that will present a bit of space. And once we're able to do that, acceptance is not the same as submission. Acceptance is the beginning of the fight back. At that point, we can really look at it. We can say what is now required from us is to dig in. The work goes on because we have no other choice. That regenerative future that we all want is still there to be fought for. So that's our task now. And it got harder. But none of us thought this was going to be easy anyway.

Christiana: [00:55:08] Well said, well said Tom, and and I totally agree with that. And from my perspective, after having digested this during the whole of today, I have reached the conclusion after breathing through precisely because of this. That is why we return to the fight. Precisely because of this, because this is, this is not the world that we want to turn over to our kids and our grandkids.

Paul: [00:55:39] And also, Tom, you were quoting actually from a very beautiful note you sent to colleagues in Global Optimism, which I hearted earlier today. And there was one bit you missed from your own notes. I'm going to add it. You said, so I would encourage you all to take a moment today to breathe, take a walk, get outside and leave the emails for a few hours. And that, you know, I did that today actually, I followed your advice, Tom, and I actually felt much better. And you know, we are going to do what we need to do to get this to turn out right. And this is an interesting, non-trivial hiccup on the way. I'm not going to say if it was easy, it wouldn't be fun. But I'm going to say that we are going to be able to jujitsu this power in ways we haven't worked out yet, but we will surprise ourselves. Last, Trump led to IRA 370 billion. This Trump could lead to who knows what.

Tom: [00:56:31] Nice. All right, friends, well, on we go. That's what we got to do. So thank you all for being with us, for listening. It's a tough day, but we will get through it. We will move forward and we will keep going.

Christiana: [00:56:43] When the going gets tough.

Paul: [00:56:45] The tough get going.

Christiana: [00:56:47] There you go.

Paul: [00:56:49] All right, see y'all.

Tom: [00:56:50] Bye. 

Christiana: [00:56:51] Bye.

Paul: [00:56:51] Bye bye.