175: COP27: A Little Less Conversation, A Lot More (Climate) Action

Christiana: [00:22:02] Yes. Yes, they will remain wedded to that. Yes, they will, because for them, this is dogma. This has nothing to do with economic reality. Right. The fact that we have more investments into into wind and solar has nothing to do with dogma. It has to do with the fact that renewables are cheaper than than the incumbent fuels. And that is especially in Europe, but in other countries of Asia as well. People have realized that they do not want to be victims to the weaponization and the blackmailing of of oil and gas on the part of regimes that are completely unpredictable, such as the Russian regime. So, you know, for both political but also economic reasons or economic reasons that we're already there, plus the new political reasons, then we have more and more investment into wind and solar, but despite those two very powerful realities. The dogma continues and and and Republicans will, you know, will will still bite into that apple and not let go.

Tom: [00:23:17] Yeah, I think there's I mean, there is a pathway. I think if you if you look below the surface where there is a certain element of certainly young Republicans and others who are looking for trajectories to change that. But I think we're several election cycles away from that, at least a few. But I don't think it's any closer than that. I mean, one thing we should point out is, I mean, Biden will obviously come and give a big speech in Egypt. He just gave this really quite interesting speech last week in Washington where he accused oil and gas companies of war profiteering through these massive profits that they're making at the moment. I mean, the numbers here are just huge over just the last two quarters ExxonMobil, Shell, Chevron, BP, ConocoPhillips and Total earned 100 billion more than they earned in all of last year. Exxonmobil itself earned 20 billion in a quarter. So what he's doing here is he's trying to equate in voters minds the fact that it's these oil companies that have been profiteering. And we talked before on this podcast about how Republicans are putting stickers of Biden at the pump across the US saying, I did that. He's trying to shift that narrative. Be quite interesting to see if that's part of his message at COP. If he comes trying to build international consensus around windfall taxes on fossil fuels, that I don't think there's really been a global attempt to deal with yet because it is outrageous at this moment. And what they're doing with those profits is they're buying back their own shares from their shareholders, basically distributing it back to their owners, which is just such an outrageous thing to be happening. While in the UK we're facing a situation that millions of people are going to be choosing between fuel and food. And that's the case all around the world as a result of these price spikes. Do we think that this is the moment in which there might be some momentum behind this windfall tax that has been mooted but hasn't really gained momentum yet?

Paul: [00:25:12] I mean, hysterically? Well, Christiana.

Christiana: [00:25:15] No, go ahead.

Paul: [00:25:16] As I say, this hysterical exchange between the chief executive of ExxonMobil, actually, yes, as you said, and this profit, quarterly profit, just a quarter of a year. 19.7 billion. By the way, that's more than the GDP, the annual GDP of Rwanda and Madagascar, who combined have 40 million people. And ExxonMobil has made more money than 40 million GDP in three months. But so so the chief executive of Exxon said there's been discussion in the US about our industry returning some of our profits directly to the American people. And that's exactly what we're doing in the form of our quarterly dividend. And President Joe Biden, bless him, actually tweeted, I can't believe I have to say this, but giving profits to shareholders is not the same as bringing down prices for American families. Thank you, Mr. President.

Christiana: [00:26:07] Thank you. Biden. Yeah. For pointing out the obvious, like, duh. It's just appalling. It's appalling.

Tom: [00:26:16] And I have to say so I'm an oil and gas conference right now in the Middle East. I came to Egypt early for a few early meetings and was asked to come and speak at this conference. And I've not often said yes to this sort of thing for obvious reasons, but I did this time in the hope that I could have a bit of an impact. But one thing that I've witnessed here that, Christiana, you've seen much more than me is how oil and gas executives speak when they think there's only other oil and gas executives in the room. And I've been quite shocked, actually, at the degree of self satisfaction and scoffing at these ideas and sort of slightly patrician talking down to the idea that anyone can control them or that activists might have a point. I found it quite abhorrent. Surprise you or not?

Christiana: [00:27:04] No, it doesn't surprise me. But what I think is I mean, that's just predictable, right? That's again, what they've been doing for years and years and years. And and they feel even more self justified now. But I also think that there is an undercurrent there in oil and gas that they are at least the more enlightened, which I would say are the Europeans. They, I think, understand that this may be their last hurrah and that this this is not going to stay like this forever. They understand that this is an incredible opportunity that has fallen from the sky, a pinata moment for them in which they have now these unbelievable profits, not that they worked for it, but they're just reaping the benefit from the absolutely horrible, terrible, inhuman war in Ukraine that gets more inhuman, by the way, every day and that they're reaping the profits from it. So, you know, we let's just contrast here the pain, the horror, the killings in Ukraine on the one side and these unbelievable profits of these companies on the other side that, you know, the fact that they don't put those two things together is really quite abhorrent. But as I was starting to say, they are beginning to realize that this could be their last big, huge profit. And why is that? I have been looking at the many different climate and emission reports that come out always this time of the year. Some press have been asking me when they call me, why, why, why do we get all these reports? Because it's the season for reports. We always get all these reports just a few days before the COP, so that is not unusual. So we've seen the world energy outlook put out by the IEA. We've seen the emissions gap report put out by UNEP, the environment program.

Christiana: [00:29:15] We've seen the Lancet countdown report, we've seen the report on emissions put out by the climate Secretariat himself. All of these reports come out on a yearly basis just before the COP. So so let's not get all upset about, oh my God, are these reports coming out now? Because we are we're facing catastrophe. This is absolutely the usual rhythm of these reports. The second thing is that all these reports do one thing, so let's understand what they're doing. All these reports assess the progress of the constant improvement. No notion, that is at the basis of the Paris Agreement, which means the Paris Agreement said we're not going to decarbonize and get to net zero by tomorrow. It's going to have to be a process. And that's why there's a long term goal by 2050. After that, then we have now deadlines that are sooner than that 2025, 2030. All of that is good. But the fact that we do have those checkpoints along along a timeline emphasizes the fact that this is a constant improvement process called in the Paris Agreement, the ratchet mechanism, but it's basically the concept of constant improvement. We have to continue decarbonizing. And interestingly enough, although the media did not really represent this, every single one of those reports say that there is progress this year against last year's assessments and against the ones before that. So the fact is we are moving in the right direction. Unfortunately, we're crawling in the right direction, but we've been crawling in that direction for several years. So there's no news in in in the fact that, yes, we are doing better than last year, although that's not the way most of the media represented.

Tom: [00:31:24] Yeah.

Christiana: [00:31:25] But what is important to remember is that all these reports say, yes, we're crawling in the right direction, but the speed and scale of progress is not enough for this decade. That we have always, always known. We have known that for quite a few years and there's no novelty there, although it is the basis of our concern. Now, what is completely new in this year's reports that was not covered by most of these, except by the IEA report, is that we have had a shift over to why are we crawling in the right direction? And that is we have actually always been thinking that the only way to decarbonize is to curtail supply and the oil and gas profits prove that we're not curtailing supply, that they're actually doing quite well. But what is interesting and the reason why oil and gas companies are beginning to understand that this is their last hurrah is because we are now in the presence of very, very strong demand destruction. So we're moving over from curtailing supply to demand. The fact is that because renewables are competitive in almost every geography and will soon be in every geography, they there is an economic reason to move over to renewables, but that is now strengthened because of the political reasons that I mentioned before of these countries not wanting to be victims of completely erratic states that are the oil and gas suppliers. So certainly in Europe, but also including in Asia. And that is the surprise. There is now demand destruction. So all of this goes to say sorry that that took so long. But all of this goes to say the oil and gas companies are enjoying their pinata moment. They're almost like at a three year old's birthday party, you know, whacking the pinata and scrambling on the floor to pick up, which is fun. But once that pinata is done, it is done.

Paul: [00:33:42] I mean, Christiana, if I can just say that you're so right to spot this extraordinary trend and we're going to have an opportunity in a few weeks time to talk to a friend of mine, John Alexander, who's written a book called Citizens. But I remember John towering over me, great big chap, and telling me that if I called people, consumers, he was going to knock my head off. Really? Because the thing is, consumers won't stop consuming because you framed someone as a consumer. And so economists like to say, well, consumers consume well, it's in the name, isn't it? Citizens don't necessarily consume Citizens think about themselves. They think about their children. They think about society. They think about their responsibilities. They feel part of nature. They see extreme weather and they say to themselves, I'm not going to put on the heating or I'm not going to buy a big car or I'm not going to put on the aircon, I'm going to adjust myself to a low carbon lifestyle. And that is happening all over the world at the most tremendous scale. And it's incredibly exciting and it's unstoppable and people haven't really got a way to model it economically. But I can I think it goes along with great excitement in industry about all the opportunities to provide the substitutes that low carbon products and services to get us to net zero quickly and efficiently.

Tom: [00:34:55] Yeah. And Christiana, I think you connected a lot of different things there in terms of the the way the oil and gas industry is profiteering at the sunset of its life. It's in a minute with a new sense of exhaustion and dread. I think we should just briefly turn to the UK with it's sort of like continual crises that are going on. But I just want to put something to you because what you both what you said, Christiana reminded me of a completely brilliant article that David Wallace-Wells put out last weekend, which is sort of moving beyond catastrophe, the new climate politics. And you sketched out some elements that were included in that in what you just said, and that is we have really left this very late now. In the seven years since Paris, we know we have to halve emissions in this decade. The current trajectory from all the reports you just talked about, suggest that emissions are actually going to be 10% higher in 2030 than they were in 2013, then they were in 2020. We're getting to the point where some of the best case scenarios that we hope for in Paris are now basically becoming closed off to us. The sub two degrees, limiting warming to under two degrees is beginning to slip away.

Tom: [00:36:04] At the same time, the underlying economic trends that you talked about, the demand destruction, the you know, solar power has dropped 90% in the last nine years. Wind has dropped 55% in the last ten years. The cost changes have been so dramatic that some of the business as usual scenarios have also proved to be impractical. So actually the RCP 8.5, such as it was called, where the world just turns back to coal, is now off the table. So the sort of five six degree scenarios of warming this century are also now looking like they're not going to happen. So our climate future is kind of coming into view. It probably won't be that we can limit warming to under two degrees this century, but it probably won't be. That warming will go beyond about 3.2 or 3.3. And so that sketches out a vision in the middle there of a sort of damaged and changed and but fundamentally livable world in that window. This is what was set out in this David Wallace-Wells article. And I just wondered what you thought of that as a message, given the reality of the economics and also time passing.

Christiana: [00:37:16] Did you say three degrees?

Tom: [00:37:18] Yeah.

Christiana: [00:37:20] Forget it, forget it. No way, No way can we accept three degrees. I mean, the human misery, the millions of people who will lose their homes, their islands, their everything, their life. No way. There is absolutely no way. And just in case you haven't noticed, I'm really passionate about this because the moment that our thinking begins to accept that we're going to three degrees, we have completely lost humanity. We have lost it. We have completely lost what makes us human, which is solidarity. I am not going to accept that we are going to three degrees. I am sorry now. Yes, we're all biting our fingernails because we can see that the descent curve of emissions is still not steep enough. So of course we're biting our fingernails. But the question that remains is whether the demand destruction that we're beginning to see now will be radical enough to move us from the emissions path that is following a still linear curve to an emissions path that is actually going to be exponential because that's what we need and that is what will take us under two degrees. I am sorry, anything less is completely unacceptable.

Tom: [00:38:37] I had a feeling you might have strong views about that issue.

Paul: [00:38:43] No, I mean, I'm I'm working on a technology at the moment to to convert Christiana vehement on these issues into energy because, you know, fusion we've often talked about but it's some kind of a weird cable could possibly power the northern hemisphere. But I also I agree with you and I'm moved by your passion and your clarity of thought, Christiana and thank you for that. You talked about, you know, the Republicans or whatever are not going to lose their dogma. And I looked at dogma, a principle or set of principles laid down by an authority as incontrovertibly true. That authority, oddly enough, is the financial interests of fossil fuel companies, many of them private, private and owners of coal and and oil and gas. You know, the famous Koch brothers and a whole bunch of others. I think that they may come to more quickly understand that this is the national security of their country. This is global security. And it's fundamentally irresponsible, you know, at a crazy level to carry on trying to persuade the Democratic Party to kind of produce and disseminate fossil fuels without limitation. I think that could change quickly. I hope so, because that could get us down below this three degrees to two degrees, which is the only thing we can do with with clean consciences.

Christiana: [00:40:06] I have no idea where this three degrees camp came from.

Paul: [00:40:09] Or I was talking with Tom said, I didn't say it. He said three degrees and he said livable. But I'm not trying to power pressure on you or put you in the doghouse. But I just want you.

Tom: [00:40:18] To provide some clarity for Christiana. I really recommend it. I mean, well, basically what what David is saying and he's brilliant, right? Is that as time goes on, the top end and the bottom end get limited. And the band I mean, when we came out of Paris, it was like 1.5 to 6 all seemed somewhat feasible this century. And what he's saying is that the best scenarios and the worst scenarios are sort of, you know, beginning to be off the table. And we still it's not that we therefore accept three degrees, but we still have decision making power, but it's within a narrower band than it was as time goes on. I mean, as we know, winning slowly is the same as losing in climate change. And we're not winning enough yet to actually be winning. We're just trying to get over the hill. So I think the fundamental thinking that the band that we will aim for, you know, the worst case scenarios would be mitigated by economic changes and demand destruction. The best case scenarios will be taken off the table by the simple passage of time. So, you know, the intellectual underpinning of that is a reality. Not that we should accept three degrees, but that we need to keep fighting, to keep it at the bottom end. But it should be a warning that we can't delay forever. I mean, we know that anyway, right? But we need to cut. We need to peak and start reducing emissions now anyway. Anyway, Christiana is being very serious. Does anyone have the strength to think about the UK or should we just give it a collective shrug and move on and address it another time?

Paul: [00:41:40] Christiana, I think seems unmoved by the UK and its foibles and I can imagine why because it's a little country that isn't necessarily that important in the great scheme of things.

Christiana: [00:41:50] Yes. I am unmoved in the context of the conversation that we just had prior to that. I'm just exactly sitting with that and have actually very little breath right now.

Paul: [00:42:08] We should honor that. We can end this podcast in a different way and in a different spirit.

Tom: [00:42:16] Well, there's a lot on the table, and as ever, the next few weeks are going to be critical. We're going to be all together in COP27, taking our responsibility seriously. Neither of you will be there, I don't think, this year, sadly. So look forward to staying in touch and everybody there will be doing their best to keep moving us forward on the right track. We will be back. I'll be talking to you from there next week, obviously, as ever. Thank you for dialing in. We're going to leave you with a piece of music, as I said, at the top end of this week. That is from Nikhil Beats. So we'll leave you with that and we'll see you next week.

Christiana: [00:42:53] Goodbye.

Tom: [00:42:54] Bye bye.

Christiana: [00:42:57] Listeners, I am so sorry to come back in here at the end of everything, but I would like to apologize because last week when I had a chat with Abigael, I wrongly, wrongly put her in the wrong seminar in Dharamsala. She wasn't down in Dharamsala, but she was not at the seminar of Mind in Life. She was at a seminar that is organised by the Better We, Better World Initiative one where I have been in the past and was truly inspired by the teachings of of the various Rinpoche that we met there. So I do apologise to the organisers of Better We and Better World Initiative, and I also apologise to Abigael that I put her in the wrong seminar in Dharamsala having made that correction. Please enjoy this week's music.

Nikhil Beats: [00:44:01] Hey, my name is Nikhil Beats. And today I'm joined by my good friend and extremely talented rapper Eclipse to play a song for you off my most recent EP. The song is called Wisdom. I've chosen this trope because of the relevance of the lyrics indicating that we all have supreme power and knowledge within us, enabling everyone to be able to unite when we unlock that wisdom and hopefully together we can overcome many battles. Thank you.

Clay: [00:47:31] So there you go. Another episode of Outrage + Optimism. This is Clay. I'm the producer of the podcast. This is the end of the show. It's just a quick wrap up. I'll tell you a little bit about the music. I'll send you on your way with some goodies out the door. Thanks for joining us. The track you just heard was Wisdom featuring Eclipse by Nikhil Beats. So this track is very fresh. It's on an EP that's titled Earthly Desires Lead to Enlightenment, and that EP is only three weeks old. It's such a privilege to be featuring new music. Like I said last week as well, the recording that you just heard is also a podcast exclusive. It's new. It's a podcast exclusive. So thank you to Nikhil Beats and Eclipse for blessing us with Wisdom. I have one thing to point you to, which is very timely. Nikhil§ Beats is playing a show in London at the Victoria on Wednesday, November 16th. Now that's less than two weeks away from you listening to this right now. So his last headline show in London totally sold out. So tickets are available in the show notes. Go check that out. If you go, send us a picture @OutrageOptimism that you went to the show. That would be great. Again, the show less than two weeks away, Wednesday, November 16th.

Clay: [00:48:58] Very short credits and wrap up this week because I actually had this whole thing planned I was going to talk about. But when this podcast ended in the spirit that it did, I tossed those plans for this week's credits and these two new things I'll leave you with felt entirely right. So. So I'm sure all of you like us are prepping slash bracing for COP27. And we've got our charts. You know, we've got our graphs, we've got our data, we've got our agenda, we've got our schedule, we've got our attachments. We've done the work. But if I could just take a moment to remind everyone, you know, as we approach these negotiations, strategy, communicating, long days, progress and setbacks, as Christiana has laid out, our optimism does not arise as the result of an achievement, but is the input with which we have to approach any challenging task. So what can we do to nurture our stubborn optimism? You know, a capacity for generosity, deep listening, compassion, loving speech, showing up for others, shifting our mindset and of course, doing the right thing. How do we nurture that? Two resources for you this week. Number one, our dear friend Sister True Dedications Ted Talk. She asks three questions and invites you for a walk together.