253: Mid 2024 Climate Review: How Are We Doing?

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Christiana Figueres: Well, and to that, I would add this very fascinating article from Time, which Sarah brilliantly shared with us, that talks about electoral psychology and what people are doing in this world in which so many more, you know, 60 countries are going to have gone or will go at this year to the polls. And what this article says is that hopelessness is the feeling that is determining where people and how people are going to vote. Because it's not that people, you know, either understand climate change and understand the solutions or are against the solutions. Actually, that's not even what it's all about. It's about feeling so hopeless about so many issues, including climate, but also social justice, income, etc., etc., that they just want change no matter what. And so they just feel that the situation is so desperate that they want change at any cause no matter what the baseline is right now and what they vote for. It's just give me some change, give me some change. And it's somewhat thoughtless. It's just the pain is too great. I just need to relieve the pain and therefore, I'm going to vote for whatever is the non-incumbent. That's, you know, if there's any truth in that, that's pretty scary because that means that we are voting out of hopelessness and desperation rather than out of intention. And sadly, this article in Time coincides somewhat scaringly with a book that I've been reading, a very scary book. It's called The Weight of Nature and it's written by a neuroscientist, Clayton Page Aldrin, who is arguing that climate change itself is causing a kind of amnesia in humanity because we are continually shifting the baseline of our experience of our outward environment. So in other words, we're normalizing the fact that we now have so many of these intense heat waves, these droughts, these floods. He actually, and so that's what he calls shifting the baseline. He actually even goes as far as saying that heat is beginning to produce some of a cognitive decline because the brain is focusing first on reducing our internal heat, i.e. climate change is producing heat, not just out there, but also perhaps somewhat imperceptibly, even in our bodies. And our brain is focused on reducing that internal heat and therefore, there is a cognitive decline. And we're not infinitely adaptable. The higher temperatures are actually causing more aggression, more conflict, more hopelessness. And that is why what we are doing to the environment, to the natural environment, is actually ricocheting on us and we're actually, while we're destroying our natural environment, we're destroying also, ricocheting and destroying our own ability to deal with our destruction of the environment. So there is a very vicious circle that, according to him, we have started. That is very dangerous. If there's any truth in that, it is very dangerous.

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Paul Dickinson: But with the desire to offer the yes and we also are in the business of evolving. That's how we've got to be the ones that are alive now, because our ancestors were the evolvers. I think it was Darwin wasn't so much saying they survived at the fittest. It was more survival of the most adaptable. I noticed that there are many people have talked about sort of stages of grief, starting with denial, going to anger, then bargaining, then depression, then acceptance. Whilst I don't in any way discount what you've said, Christiana, about how we ourselves may be negatively impacted by climate change, you can also see billions of people in a developmental cycle and struggling with that, which is back to the race.

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Christiana Figueres: Yeah.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: Are you impressed with the... Because it's not a thought I've ever had before that, Christiana, and it sort of makes sense as you're talking about. Are you impressed with the kind of the science and the documentation that sits behind it? We should try and get him on the podcast, if so.

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Christiana Figueres: We should get him on the podcast. It's, for me, a very difficult book to read. I've been taking it with me wherever I go for, actually, I think even two months because I struggle to finish the book. It's a very difficult read. We should get him on the podcast.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: No, I was going to say we should turn to some political things as well. But before we do, should we just look forward over the next six months and kind of discuss what's happening or, Paul, anything else you want to share from London Climate Action Week or anything that's happening right up to today?

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Paul Dickinson: Well, I had a great time at London Climate Action Week. I have to say I've not normally gone around these events, but I had a sense this time, and it's probably just me inventing this, but give me a chance. I had a sense that there was a different buzz, that there was something different going on. I had a sense that I had the opportunity to be in the room, on at least one occasion, where the cool kids were. What I really realized is that there are no cool kids. It's not a case of there are some kids that are cool and some kids that aren't. When you're in the room where the cool kids are, it's because the room is cool, it's not the kids. The event that I particularly went to, which was incredibly well attended, it was in a very nondescript part of London in Victoria, huge room, about 100 people, every single desk filled, working meeting, and it was set up by the Race to Zero, and it was really around policy advocacy, and you had all sorts of different people from different types of the climate movement, you had all sorts of incredibly enlightened funders, and you had people from trade associations, and there was a wonderful thing. I heard someone from a trade association quote somebody else from a trade association saying, we're three commercial kitchen refits from 2050. Commercial kitchens in hotels or wherever, they're going to have three refits and then it's going to be 2050. It's a way of really thinking about how if you're actually in industry, this stuff is really, really important. What I loved about Climate Week was this notion of super accelerated policy. You framed it at the start, Christiana, perfectly. We haven't got the policy we need. Everyone knows you can't get emissions down at 6 percent a year without all sorts of laws and regulations and subsidies and industrial policy and all the rest of it. But what I felt about Climate Week was that people were really coming together. You had people from government, you had investors with their bird's-eye view, as Tessa Tennant used to say, their bird's-eye view over the whole economy. You had people from real economy, industry, you had people from trade associations, people from lobbying organizations, kind of coming together and saying, OK, if we're going to make this all happen five times faster, to quote Simon Sharp, how do we whiteboard the economy of 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045? It just feels to me like it's all getting very practical, and that filled me with joy. And topped off by the launch of Mission 2025.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: Absolutely, which we covered last week, which is very good. So yeah, I agree with you. I think the practical element is really where it's at, right? And it's people kind of getting together and trying to work on specific programs to really make things happen. So that was great. There was one other way of thinking about the future that I came across last week that slightly terrified me, but I'm going to share it with you anyway. Every three months is 1% of our journey towards 2050. So I'll just leave that with you.

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Paul Dickinson: A new ratio to terrify you when you wake up in the morning.

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Christiana Figueres: Say that again. Every three months is 1% of the journey to 20.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: That's how between now and 2050, we get 1% of that amount of time disappears every three months.

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Christiana Figueres: Well, and if I can just add to the terror of that thought, every 1% is not equal.

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Paul Dickinson: Oh yeah.

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Christiana Figueres: Every 1% is not equal. It is the 1% of right now, today's and tomorrow's and tomorrow's, that actually count the most.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: That's a good point.

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Christiana Figueres: Because this is about concentration of greenhouse gases. So what we do in the immediate is much more important than what we do in the future, close to 2050.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: Final five years or something. Yeah. Wow. That is a really good point. So just to look forward a bit, we're going to take a bit of a break. We'll be back in August, towards the end of August, and then running through September, New York Climate Week. Should we just cast our minds forward a little bit to that period of time? It's going to be an interesting few months. It includes the UN General Assembly, the EarthShot Prize, the negotiations in Colombia, the negotiations obviously in Baku. Either of you want to kick off with a few thoughts about that period of time?

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Christiana Figueres: Hold on.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: Okay.

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Christiana Figueres: Before we go into casting our eyes on the future and the rest of this year, can I share something that is very exciting?

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Paul Dickinson: Is this a hold the front page moment? Do we feel a little bit of drumming coming?

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Christiana Figueres: Yes, yes. And I'm going to warn you that this does involve Costa Rica, but not only.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: You astonish me, okay.

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Paul Dickinson: That's just weird, the coincidence, because it's involved Costa Rica every single episode for the last five years. So it was such a coincidence that would happen today as well.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: That's pretty rich of me. I just spent 10 minutes talking about policy advocacy, but yes, back to Costa Rica.

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Christiana Figueres: Yes. Thank you. Thank you, Tom. Thank you for rescuing me. So the good news, the very good news of this week or one of the bits of very good news, is the ministers of trade, not the ministers of environment, not the ministers of climate, not the ministers of energy, the ministers of trade from four small countries. And we know that small countries very often take the lead. We have seen that repeatedly along the history of climate policy. So four ministers of trade from Costa Rica, Iceland, New Zealand, and Switzerland have just concluded 15 rounds of virtual negotiations to work out a very innovative and groundbreaking trade agreement focused on climate change, trade and sustainability. And they have made it all consistent with their obligations under the WTO, under the World Trade Organization. That is a first because for such a long time, we thought that these two things could not be brought into harmony with each other. And they have actually done it. And what this trade agreement will do is it's going to deliver very high quality trade commitments that truly contribute to addressing climate as well as biodiversity, pollution and other serious environmental challenges. What they have done under this agreement, they have worked out a list, a very long list of environmental goods with a definition and criteria to guide what tariffs are going to be eliminated. So they have 300 environmental goods, including solar panels, wind, hydraulic turbines, electric vehicles, wool fiber, recycled paper, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, that are going to actually enjoy tariffs being eliminated across the four countries for entry into the country. They have listed a hundred environmental services that are going to be facilitated and accelerated across all four countries. They have developed a new framework to eliminate harmful fossil fuel subsidies, and they have contributed to the world a very interesting definition of what harmful fossil fuel subsidies are, and we know that that has been one of the problems to eliminate these fossil fuels. And they have developed a voluntary ecolabeling program, I mean, program, a voluntary ecolabel program, to be able to promote trade in sustainable products by using those ecolabels for consumer choice. It is amazing how many barriers prior to this, how many barriers they have actually broken through conceptual regulatory barriers in order to say, look, it is entirely possible. It's entirely possible to bring this kind of momentum, the kind of integration of climate, biodiversity, pollution into WTO. We can bring these things together. And they are, it's only four small countries that have done this, but they're actually inviting and encouraging other countries to join. Now that they've done all the heavy lifting, they have inviting other countries to increase the membership of this alliance and to thereby strengthen and modernize and bring WTO up to where we are, up to speed, so to speak. So, you know, honestly, hooray for small countries that are not afraid of stepping in and leading. Hooray for the courage. Hooray for the incredible amount of work that they have done. And the willingness to say, just because we have had a policy barrier, just because we have had a definitional barrier for such a long time, doesn't mean that we cannot break through an open new ground. So hooray for Costa Rica, Iceland, New Zealand and Switzerland.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: What a great array of countries. I love it. And you're absolutely right, Christiana, it's the precedent and it's the structure of being able to demonstrate this can be done. It can be compliant with international law. We can think about these things in a different way. That's an amazing story. I love that.

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Paul Dickinson: I'm just going to sort of kick back on you saying they're small countries, Christiana, if I may. First of all, Iceland has a new president, right? The full manager of the B team, so a climate leader as president. New Zealand had Jacinda Ardern as the kind of the sort of leader of the free world in the dark days of Donald Trump, a politician of the most extraordinary capability and skill. Costa Rica, as everyone involved in this program knows, is a pioneer of progressive political solutions that have made it time and again seen the happiest country on earth. And Switzerland, who have actually 10 trillion dollars invested in there or under management in their banking system, so they're able to potentially finance all that superb policies being developed by this extraordinary quartet. So these small countries represent a big vision that can be enacted and I think it's completely inspiring. Thank you.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: Okay, so thank you for bringing that, Christiana. It's always great to have these examples of how we can actually make progress and the historical excuses for not doing these things just don't add up. It can be done by political leaders who really want to make it happen. As we mentioned at the beginning, we'll talk more about politics in the episode next week, where we will cover off the UK and French elections. But just before we go, just to wrap up, we of course will be back towards the end of the summer. There's then going to be, as ever, this incredibly intense period that leads us through these important international negotiation moments. The backdrop for all of this is what we've talked about already, which is the exponential deployment of solutions, which will be unfolding, we hope, at an ever-increasing rate. In a way, and you've talked about this, Christiana, the role of these political moments that we're going to touch on now is just not to stop that and do everything we can to try to make it move faster and faster. We can talk about the specifics. There's going to be a Summit of the Future in New York, around the UN General Assembly, hosted by Antonio Guterres. Then in October, there will be the implementation negotiations that will happen in Colombia. This is a follow-up from the Convention on Biological Diversity meeting that happened last year to look at really how do we now implement the solutions in order to accelerate conservation of 30 percent of land and sea by 2030. That will then lead us to the EarthShot Prize, which is happening in South Africa. Then finally, to Baku, where we will have a COP negotiation, COP29, that in particular is going to focus on public finance and how we actually need to have a new deal between developed and developing countries, post the 100 billion that was agreed all those years ago in Copenhagen, that can provide the confidence and the clarity for all countries to come together for new national commitments by February next year. But we actually know that that will be an ongoing issue throughout the whole of next year. So, Christiana, anything you want to, what strikes you as you think about those few months?

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Christiana Figueres: Well, honestly, I'm holding my breath. Because of what we just said before, right, that every month from now to 2025 or 2030, you pick your date every month is not the same. These months from now to December are more critical than the same six months, June to December, of 2028, for example, or 2029. And we're just not operating with that sense of urgency. We just continue to think linear. We continue to think and act marginal instead of exponential. You know, we've talked about this so, so much. And it's just, it's not going to cut it. If we go marginal and if we go linear, we're just not going to cut it.

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Paul Dickinson: Yep. And I just want to say a word about the biodiversity implementation. 30 by 30 is absolutely an incredibly powerful target. But there is also a framing of all of this. You know, there are many people on this, who listen to this podcast. I'm definitely one of them. I listen to the podcast. And, you know, we've spent a lot of time measuring tons up the industrial process, delivering tons of CO2 or CO2 equivalent into the atmosphere. We've just begun to measure tons down. We call it nature, we call it biodiversity, but it is the equal and opposite part of our emissions and deserves just as much attention. And that's the big penny that's been dropping in the world. And that's very exciting. You know, those cops are still separate, but they are dealing with the same problem. Yeah. I have a last word. There's so much amazing listening feedback we've had. But I'm going to just give you one from Cameron Saul, who says, thank you for your gracious, courageous leadership at Christiana Figueres. Grounding ourselves in love and optimism is the most powerful and radical tool that we have. I couldn't have put it better myself. Woo.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: Okay. Thanks, everybody. We will see you next week for a wrap up of the elections. Thanks for joining us this week. See you soon.

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Paul Dickinson: Bye.

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Clay (podcast producer): So there you go. Another episode of Outrage and Optimism. Clay here, producer of this podcast. Thanks for listening. So if you picked up anything from this episode, go vote. As Tom said, voting is one of the most important things you can do on climate. And today in the UK, you have that opportunity. And on July 7th in France, we also have another election that will undoubtedly affect our future. So if you are a voting citizen in that country, go vote. I put links in the show notes for both UK citizens and French citizens to view that shows you how to exercise your right to vote. So thank you on behalf of our entire Outrage and Optimism community. Okay, thank you for that. A massive thank you is in order to our good friends at Earthrise Studio for saving our podcast episode that came out over the weekend. No, like literally, they saved it. Following the Mission 2025 event, I had a tech issue that almost completely upended us being able to put out that episode for our listeners. And so without skipping a beat, Isabella, Alice, Chloe, Hassan, Joy, and the rest of the team offered their gear, their studio, and their expertise to help make that episode possible. So Earthrise, on behalf of all of our team and our listeners, thank you. Seriously, they're great. Go check out the work Earthrise is doing in the show notes. I put a link to their guide on the UK elections that you can check out. And please be sure to like it and give it a share. Thanks, guys. So at the end of Saturday's episode, I mentioned that Outrage and Optimism was going to be at Glastonbury. And so this past weekend on Sunday, Outrage and Optimism was at Glastonbury. We hosted two climate conversations about the intersection of music, climate and creativity with our colleague and Outrage and Optimism alumni Matthew Phillips, who you heard on the Mission 2025 episode. He moderated alongside British musician and friend of the pod, Nabiya Iqbal. I'm happy to report back that it was a moment of real conversation and an opportunity to really transform the conversation around climate and to empower artists, fans, music professionals and scientists to imagine collaborating together in new ways to activate these drivers of culture towards delivering on science and nature-based targets. Listeners of this podcast know that musicians and artists are in the driver seat when it comes to cultural change and this massive revolution in energy, culture and climate that we're living through. And this moment absolutely demands that artists rightfully take hold of the microphone and lead us into the creative and just future that we all want. So, all that to say, it was spectacular. We couldn't be more grateful to help in any way we can, and it was great to host that conversation. A very special thank you to the guests who joined us on stage, and a shout out to Anna Johnson, Luke Howell, Lindsay Frazier, and the team at Hope Solutions for inviting us and for hosting us at Glastonbury. On a content note, we might have some content from the festival that we can share in the future with listeners, so we've got a pin in that. Stay tuned. Oh, and of course, in true Glastonbury form, just moments after our event ended, we walked backstage, and who's standing right there? No one else, but Idris Elba, the man himself, a famous actor, rapper, DJ, and climate activist. He and Greg Jackson from Octopus Energy, who was on one of the conversations as a panelist, they put on this little cool encore conversation, taking questions from the audience and talking about how they've just partnered to build a first of its kind wind farm in Sierra Leone, which would essentially leapfrog a generation of fossil fuel infrastructure in Africa that we've talked about before on the podcast. And it would deliver the benefits of clean energy to the country where Idris' father was born. It was really cool to hear his story on that. So I say all that to say the weekend at Glastonbury was filled with just fun moments like that. Moments where as a community we could really first hand experience the power unleashed when we radically collaborate, when we think in different ways, when we partner with our different skill sets and it was community, it was creative. I left feeling a sense that we can do this together. If we do it together, anything is possible. I'm very tired after late nights and early mornings, and still honestly processing the entire experience. But overall, I'm just so thankful to have been able to attend and to be invited into the community there at the festival. So, thank you to Hope Solutions. Thank you to Outrage and Optimism for having faith in me, and sending Matthew and I there. It was really a wonderful experience, one of a kind. If you get the chance to go, you should definitely go. Okay, and last but certainly not least, you heard it on the episode. Sarah Thomas, our executive producer, is leaving us this month, and this marks her last full episode on the podcast. Now, if you love this podcast, it is because of the tireless blood, sweat, and tears that Sarah has put into making this show a reality week after week after week. From episode inception to production and recording, to editing, to re-editing, to re-recording, to publishing, Sarah has had her hand in everything, which absolutely defies the demanding role of a normal quote unquote executive producer. I've gotten to know her very well, working with her every week and sometimes every day over the past couple years, and her love for people and planet, her creative maladjustment to inequity and inequality, her expertise in communications, and her sense of, let's just f*****g do it is a hallmark on outrage and optimism. How she lives her values to the highest level of purity and also drive the most impact at the same time is a testament to her character, and she has made a lasting impression here that will serve outrage and optimism, its listeners, and the entire climate community forever. Sarah, we're gonna miss you, we love you, we wish you and your family the best as you make your way in the world, and we're always going to be rooting for you. On behalf of all of us on the team and all of our listeners, thank you, Sarah. Okay, I've said it. I'm not crying. You're crying. Okay, all right. UK listeners, go make your voice heard today. We want climate action and we want it now. We will be covering the election next week before our summer break. See you on the other side.