255: US Election Special: Is a Win for Harris a Win for Climate?

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Christiana Figueres: It's beginning to look a lot like Harris.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: Like Harris, exactly. So let's talk about her. Just beforehand, would either of you like to guess, the last time we had a presidential election that had neither a Clinton, a Bush, nor a Biden on the ticket?

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Paul Dickinson: 1811, it would have been. Taft's story, actually, was standing again. Oh, no, actually, there was a Clinton.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: A Clinton, a Bush or a Biden.

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Paul Dickinson: It's going to be like 1970 or something.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: You want to guess, Christiana? 1976.

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Paul Dickinson: Oh, my God.

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Christiana Figueres: I mean, that, in itself, is incredibly exciting.

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Paul Dickinson: It is.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: Okay, so Kamala Harris, who would like to kick off with her climate record, which is, I think, what listeners would like to know from us. They're no doubt getting lots of news about convention delegates and everything from others, but what we can bring is the climate side. So, Christiana, do you want to kick us off in that direction?

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Christiana Figueres: Well, yeah, sure. Very impressive, honestly, very impressive. Her record, both as Attorney General of California and as District Attorney of San Francisco before. And you know what strikes me is, I'm full of theories today, so I'm just going to put them out there and you can strike them down, OK? My theory around this is that her take on climate comes out of her deep sense of justice. She is a lawyer, a very capable lawyer. She's a prosecutor and when you look at her record, it strikes me that what motivates her is, yes, a more stable economy, yes, renewable energy, yes, all of that, which I think was more of a motivator for Biden and for for others. But for her, what really motivates her is the injustice of unaddressed climate. And that's where she comes. And so the fact that she is such a hard line on oil and gas, such a hard line on these companies, such a hard line on the fact that people have to be prosecuted for their climate and social criminal violations, such a hard line on the fact that those who need to benefit are the minority communities that are most affected, is very interesting, very interesting. And in fact, as part of that little theory, that I'm very happy for you to strike down, I actually wondered this morning at 4 o'clock in the morning, whether the fact that the IRA having such a bent of benefiting low-income and hugely affected communities was maybe Kamala's influence. How do you like that one?

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: I'm liking your, I'm liking your three- You're going to strike all of this down. No, I agree with that. I have only been in the room with her one time, which was during the COP 28 in Dubai, where I was part of a couple of round tables. And she kicked off both conversations talking about justice, talking about people, and talking about the necessity of getting on top of climate as a result of this. And she was incredibly compelling when she was on that topic. It felt like home ground to her in a way that, and God bless her, you know, NDCs and the renewal of the 100 billion fund didn't necessarily feel like home ground, which is fine, right? But when she was talking about people and about justice, it felt like she was where she was at home. And actually, if you look historically at her career as a prosecutor, it's been interesting, right? So she has often taken the oil and gas company to court. She sued the All American Pipeline over a 2015 oil spill off the California coast, obtained a criminal indictment of the company. She was also the prosecutor, unless you may not know this, who secured an $86 million settlement for the state of California from Volkswagen after allegations of cheating from the diesel emissions tests that people will remember. So she has been right at the front end of holding companies, the oil and gas sector in particular, to account. As a California attorney, as the attorney general, she brought lawsuits against fossil fuel companies and investigated Exxon Mobil for misleading the public over climate change. I mean, we should keep going into her record, but we should also just point out at this moment that they're going to fight like hell against this over the coming few months. So that's something we should be prepared for.

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Christiana Figueres: They're going to fight like hell. But if she gets to the White House, oh my God, the teeth on climate are going to be sharpened in the US.

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Paul Dickinson: And they need to be. And they absolutely need to be, you know. There's this extraordinary thing in the Washington Post about the 20 oil and gas company chief executives at Mar-a-Lago and Trump saying, you know, if I can get rid of all kind of regulations on you, but you should give me a billion dollars. He said it in the sequence whereby he wouldn't get sent to prison. But, you know, essentially he offered this kind of trade. And there are two things on the ticket in this gigantic election of huge significance for the world. One is democracy itself and the other one is climate change and the forces of fossil fuel industry who I don't think are anti-democratic necessarily, but will back any crazy person to try and defend their estate. And I mean, just flip over for a minute and think about JD. Vance, the selection for vice president. He made clear that if he'd been vice president on January the 6th, he would have told the states like Pennsylvania and Georgia and many others that there should be multiple states of electors and Congress should have fought over it, okay? So when there was an insurrection against the democracy of the United States, the Republican vice presidential candidate said that he would have stood for overturning the election.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: Just to come in, I mean, JD. Vance is a very interesting character, and we should probably spend more time on him. I don't know if you've read Hillbilly Elegy, the book that he wrote some years ago. It is a fascinating story of justice in the deep south and in the economically disadvantaged. Communities of the United States. There's a lot too, JD. Vance. I agree with you. Yeah, yeah.

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Paul Dickinson: I mean, I can be quite Trumpian in my kind of defense against the victims of globalization. I just don't want the fossil fuel industry to be able to continue to the point where our atmosphere cooks the humans, right? So I totally get your point that he's a brilliant choice in some regards. But here's my hope and belief with Kamala. Yes, she's got a rock solid record on climate change, but her skills as a prosecutor, I think, will be able to reveal first of all, the intolerably anti-democratic character of the Republican Party that anointed Donald Trump without any debate, notice, that all rallied around him in this horrific post-shooting convention. But she'll also be able to prosecute him as a sort of representative of an industry that's using completely abominable tactics to try and seize control of the largest economy in the world and the most significant democracy in the world. So all faith and wishes and hopes for her to succeed in this kind of sacred global challenge against the forces of darkness.

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Christiana Figueres: Now, here's a question. Do you think that despite the fact that she has such a clear track record on climate, and with such sharp teeth as I said before, do you think that she should lead with that in the campaign?

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: I think she has to tack towards the middle, is my sense. I mean, to a certain degree, I do think that winning US elections is about getting the base to turn out to a large degree. But I think that she probably also has to try, and she's going to face some very difficult challenges as a woman on the top of the ticket, right? And as a black woman and an Indian heritage woman on the top of the ticket, there's going to be, the reality of US society, many societies around the world, is there will be forces arrayed against her that aren't arrayed against other people. And to try and walk that line where the policing of her behavior and her tone will be so intense, it's going to be really, really difficult. But I'm sure that as a prosecutor and someone who's used to presenting herself in certain ways, she's equal to it.

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Paul Dickinson: And she has a golden ticket, by the way, which is reproductive rights, where nearly 60% of the country are horrifically opposed to this crazy Supreme Court telling women that they have no control over their own bodies.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: What do you think, Christiana?

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Christiana Figueres: What do I think about Tom?

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: In terms of should she lead with those sharp teeth?

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Christiana Figueres: I think that's something that she reserves for the presidency.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: Yeah.

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Christiana Figueres: And if she wants to refer to climate, I think she is going to refer to climate out of the arguments that are strongest for her, which are social justice arguments and communities that are most affected and least responsible for it. And to that point, I think there's an interesting setup between her concern for the bottom of the pyramid and JD Vance's concern for the bottom of the pyramid. That's going to be very interesting to hear it play out because other than Trump, who doesn't give a damn, pretends to care, but doesn't give a damn, I actually also suspect that Vance does give a damn, and he probably has to toe the line of his boss. But I think that's going to be very interesting how Kamala and JD Vance actually vie for the support and the trust and the confidence of those who are hardest hit right now. Very interesting setup.

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Paul Dickinson: Although maybe it will be her vice president that's duking out with Vance. I mean, just before you come on to that, Tom, because you said you would be able to talk a little bit about it. I don't know about climate change like not being an issue. I mean, we've discussed how it's played out in European elections. There is something about, we're all afraid that climate change might put some people off or something. But there's a grand coalition to be built here around democracy, around women's reproductive rights, around justice, around youth, who I think will turn out for a climate change candidate. And finding the right messaging around that grand coalition is the art of this.

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Christiana Figueres: Yes, I totally agree with that. And we haven't said anything about age. How come all of a sudden age is no longer on the table?

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Paul Dickinson: 59 years old, she's younger than me. So who's she going to run with, Tom?

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: Oh, I have no idea about that. It's a fascinating question, actually. I also think, just to add to what you said in terms of the justice element, is around science, right? So I do think that that is the place where I do think she has to kind of hold the line, because we know that people are now more and more concerned and that Trump is doing his best to downplay that. I mean, a recent speech from him. The ocean will rise and maybe it will go down, said Trump. It may rise one eighth of an inch in the next 497 years. They say one eighth, which gives you a little bit more waterfront property if you're lucky to own it. I mean, actually, sea levels are predicted to rise as much as 33 inches, more than a meter by the end of this century. And if the Antarctic ice sheet collapsed, it could be more than 10 feet, which is more like three and a half meters. So him coming out with this utter garbage, once you start layering over the issues of justice and what that kind of sea level rise does to coastal communities, does to vulnerable communities, then you end up with something interesting. So I think the place where we do need to be sharp is on the science because I think we have made more progress in society as people understand really what that will do to those who are most vulnerable.

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Paul Dickinson: It is alleged that Donald Trump does listen to this podcast. And I'd just like to speak directly to him, if I may. Donald, for the next 497 years, people are going to talk about the absolutely insanely dangerous stupidity of your hideous comments like that. Really, you will be inheld in contempt for centuries.

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Christiana Figueres: All right.

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Paul Dickinson: So who's she going to run with?

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Christiana Figueres: Okay, I don't know who she's going to run with. I think it has to be someone from a very large swing state. But, curious, are we getting ready to wrap up? Because I just want to say one more thing. I have gone out on the ledge so much this morning.

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Paul Dickinson: One more time. There's one more trip on the ledge.

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Christiana Figueres: It's probably because it's so early in the morning. I've only had one tea as opposed to my usual two. You know what I'm really looking forward to?

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: The debate.

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Christiana Figueres: Yes, yes.

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Paul Dickinson: Yeah, yeah, yeah.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: Although, did you see he's already kind of laying the ground for not doing it?

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Paul Dickinson: Oh, of course he won't. He'll do anything to avoid a debate with her.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: Yeah, he's now laying the ground and saying, oh, now that it's her, it shouldn't be on ABC. We need to put it on Fox. I'm not sure about it. So, I mean, you're right. As a distinguished and seasoned prosecutor, she will wipe the floor with him.

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Christiana Figueres: Cream him. She will absolutely cream him.

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Paul Dickinson: Oh, we can't wait.

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Christiana Figueres: Honestly, I'm already making the popcorn for that.

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Paul Dickinson: Very special evening. A very special evening. Just to confirm what a lot of people know, that it's not necessarily the case that she will get the nomination. There may be this somewhat contested convention. There was very great excitements in her vice presidential pick. But can I conclude from my side by saying, would you both agree this is a time of enormous optimism and opportunity for climate change, given that there's a real chance that a Democratic president is going to win in November?

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: Oh, my God. If we now get a Kamala Harris, we're along with a France that kept the extreme bright out and the UK is back on the world stage. We've got lots of problems in the world, but there's a few bright spots.

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Paul Dickinson: There's a little dance. Christiana's shoulders are in a little dance. Exactly.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: All right, friends, lovely to see you. Thanks for listening, everyone. We'll be back whenever we're back. End of the summer.

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Paul Dickinson: Bye.