334: Inside COP: Storms in Belém - Lula’s arrival, the carbon tariff debate, and the COP31 decision

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Transcript generated by AI. While we aim for accuracy, errors may still occur. Please refer to the episode’s audio for the definitive version

Fiona McRaith: [00:00:00] Hello everyone, it's Fiona and I am walking out of the blue zone right now after spending the day trying to trace a story that has probably now been formally announced, but as of recording this, it has not yet. And that is who is hosting and who is the presidency of Cop 31 next year. We think we know the answer as I'm walking out of the halls, but we've followed the story today, getting sources that we don't bring on the pod and one really knowledgeable source that we do. And you'll come along that journey with us in this episode. We hope you enjoy it.

Paul Dickinson: [00:00:36] Hello and welcome to Inside Cop from Outrage and Optimism. I'm Paul Dickinson.

Fiona McRaith: [00:00:40] And I'm Fiona McRraith.

Paul Dickinson: [00:00:42] Today, the latest drama from the Blue Zone, a spotlight on the action agenda and deep dive into the contentious question of sebum, the carbon border adjustment mechanism. Thanks for being here.

Fiona McRaith: [00:00:58] So big day of drama here at Cop 30. And the skies also join in the fun. Thunderstorms. We are in the rain forest. We're in BLM and roof leaks in the blue zone. Specifically right above where I was literally sitting.

Paul Dickinson: [00:01:17] Just listening to that, I got to tell you, I was in the action agenda and we'll talk about it later. But there were three countries France, Sweden, Australia literally drowned out. No one could hear anyone speaking because the volume of the rain was so intense. It's science fiction. Rain. Amazing. Never experienced it before.

Fiona McRaith: [00:01:33] So that being said, the afternoon was pretty loud, pretty thundery, and in a delightful way, reminding us where we are in the world. The Amazon rainforest, one of the global tipping points, as Christiana mentioned a few times last week, but we haven't mentioned in an episode in about 48 hours. So here it is again. The weather today. Paul, as you know, was not the only thing that got people talking. The question of which country hosts Cop 31 was definitely still kind of ping ponging around the halls. And as a reminder, it's the Western Europe and Others group or the Weog. It's their Turn Next acronym. I think that's what some of our insiders call it. And I love it. The Weog. I hope that's right. And there are two countries vying for the presidency Australia and Turkey. The first lady of Turkey was apparently deeply invested, as we reported last week, and we heard last week as well that it may be possible that they're going to split it, do a leader segment in one, and then the cop in the other. But actually, the news broke yesterday that Australia would, quote, not veto Turkey's attempt. But what did this mean in practice? It got tongues wagging, that's for sure. And a lot of people actually say that that was a tactic of Australia's to try to get this issue moving again. We caught up with a friend of the show, Dean Bialek, former UN diplomat, and he's worked with Marshall Islands.

Paul Dickinson: [00:02:58] Yeah, he's super smart and I think sort of lives and breathes Australia in the region and what's best. So let's see what he's got to say.

Fiona McRaith: [00:03:06] So we're in the Western Europe and others group of the UN and it's between Turkey and Australia. It's been dragging on for I mean Australia submitted their bid three years ago. But we need to know by the end of this cop where it's going. And it's either going to be in Bonn, in Germany, Australia or in Turkey. But today there was some news. And what was that news? Can you tell us a little bit about it?

Dean Bialek: [00:03:27] Well, it's been building up for quite some time. I should say that the kind of interaction between the two competing delegations was very, very intensive, actually in the margins of UN General Assembly Week in, in September. And there's been ongoing negotiations at all levels of government. So correspondence between the two heads of state.

Fiona McRaith: [00:03:49] The first lady got involved on Turkey's side.

Dean Bialek: [00:03:51] Correct. Uh, foreign ministers have been talking, but really in the lead of the Australian effort and the Turkish effort have been ministers Bowen and Karam, both climate ministers of their respective countries. They arrived on Sunday and Monday respectively, and so there's been quite intensive interactions between them over the last 48 hours. There's some kind of formal proposals that were put on the table very early this morning, and I think some pressure from the Brazilian presidency to try and resolve this issue so everyone can just get on with preparations for next year.

Fiona McRaith: [00:04:26] What is it uniquely that you think Australia and the Pacific Islands could bring as hosts of the car?

Dean Bialek: [00:04:31] There's a few things. One, I should say that here we're just south of the equator by only a few millimeters. But essentially, other than here, there has been no cop in the southern hemisphere since Lima in 2014. So everyone that works here knows that one of the fundamental principles of the UN system is equitable geographic distribution or representation. And really, we're starting to get into a situation where the Cop is not geographically representative of the kind of global effort and also doesn't take into account different circumstances. So, for example, here in Brazil, very focused on forests and a real recognition that an Australia slash Pacific hosted Cop next year would focus very much on the nexus between oceans and climate, but also the very intensive energy transition that's underway both in the Pacific islands. And they have declared a vision to achieve 100% renewables for the whole region, all of the Pacific island states by 2035, and then a great success story over recent years in Australia, with the electrification and massive uptake of renewables on the main electricity grid, which has gone from less than 20%, up to 45% and headed towards 80% by 2030. So that's a really great success story as well. But I think it's really important to say also that for this process, the Pacific Islands have provided extraordinary moral leadership on the climate issue writ large. So without the Pacific, we wouldn't have the 1.5 degree goal. We wouldn't have the five year cycle of NDCs. We wouldn't have the net zero trajectory. So all of that absolutely crucial and underpinning the kind of ambition of the Paris Agreement. Without the Pacific, we'd have none of it.

Fiona McRaith: [00:06:26] Yeah. So, um, thank you so much. I think that really drives home the point of how important the presidency is and how different places can, um, really drive different agenda items forward. If you were negotiating this for Australia, what would some of the tactics be that you're trying to just get through the stalemate? What would you what would you be doing?

Dean Bialek: [00:06:45] Well, if I'd been designing the strategy, I think I would have been looking much wider than the wider group to develop a real groundswell of support in behind the bid. I think there's been a kind of almost myopic focus on bilateral engagement with Turkey, and I don't think that has gone very well. Um, if you look just at the Weog group, I mean, the Minister Bowen, he says, uh, you know, we've had outward expressions of support for our bid from 23 out of the 28 countries. There's none of the Weog members that have put up their hand and said, we support the Turkish bid. And yet here we are, three days away from the end of the cop, uh, and still struggling to negotiate a compromise between the two countries.

Fiona McRaith: [00:07:31] Paul, what do you make of it?

Paul Dickinson: [00:07:32] Well, it's compelling. And to hear a heartfelt case for the, uh, Australia Pacific cop next year. What a dream. How ideal that would be. And, you know, he gave this great long list of things Pacific islands have delivered, including the ICJ judgment, the International Court of Justice. So powerful voice of existential suffering is what I take from those islands. If only Australia could represent them in some way, that would be good. What about you?

Fiona McRaith: [00:07:57] I totally agree. I think the strength of the Australian bit is that it's not just Australia, it is them doing the presidency with the the South Pacific Islands. And what I personally would really like to see that happen. What happens if it's not agreed.

Paul Dickinson: [00:08:10] It goes to Bonn, which is the favourite headline we've found from the Guardian is Bonn Neue. If that happens, so Germany will host it. But I mean, look, there is an atmosphere of kind of getting things done here and it's an assertive presidency. Do you know, actually, yesterday, um, the heads of delegation were told by the president that the parties had to make their suggestions to this text by 7 p.m. and had to remain in the venue till midnight. There's a lot going on. Let's look at the domestic politics for a minute and what it means to Lula's administration. We've asked a friend of the show, Thais Bilenky, who spoke to us a couple of times already about Cop, to send us a quick voice note on what's going on.

Thais Bilenky: [00:08:51] Lula is heading back to Berlin now, in the final days of Cop, because it is strategical for him both internationally and domestically. Brazil is now facing a huge debate on criminal organizations that are expanding into territories and penetrating the legal economy. The government has suffered a defeat this week in Congress, a huge one. So Lula needs good news. And maybe in the climate agenda he can have some victories. Internationally, it is important to the president to have his projection as a global leader, or at least as a global South leader in South Africa. In the G20 summit, Lula will be asked about his leadership regarding Venezuela and regarding Russia. Being a cop and having good news to project himself is a fundamental piece of his government's Strategy to stay relevant in Brazil and abroad, of course. And I would say that there's something else, this declaration by Chancellor Merz from Germany saying that no one in Germany wanted to stay in Berlin because, you know, the country isn't a good place to live in. This wasn't good internationally. Of course, it was a disrespect. And for Lula, for the government gives him a speech to defend our country and our self-esteem. I would say so. Everybody knows that Berlin has problems, logistical problems, structural problems. But we knew that already, right? So Lula needs to make his point in the international stage.

Paul Dickinson: [00:10:44] This is obviously a pretty intense time for Brazilian presidential politics, and it's something that big nations sometimes try and pull off emerging leading nations. Can a global role improve national perceptions of a president?

Fiona McRaith: [00:10:59] Yeah. I mean, I think what's really clear from and thank you ties, it's really been clear to me today that Lula's presence here has helped bring a lot of the issues to a greater maturity point. I think the jury's still out as we're recording this, about what that might mean in terms of closing the Cop and what the presidency was hoping for. But it certainly um, and we ran into Dean again, who helped us understand this, but it certainly helped bring the Cop 31 host question to a head.

Dean Bialek: [00:11:32] It's right down to the wire. Uh, and I've just received a report.

Fiona McRaith: [00:11:37] Right now on.

Fiona McRaith: [00:11:38] This phone right.

Dean Bialek: [00:11:38] Now that both the Turkish and the Australian ministers have been summoned to President Lula's office in the VIP lounge. They've just had 20 minutes with the president. He sent them both out. And the Turks have just gone back in for a separate discussion. So now that it's gone up to that level, I think the hope is that we can find a solution very, very quickly. The advantage of Lula getting involved is that he can pick up the phone to either of the two leaders and say, look, I think there's a deal to be done here. Can we just get this over and done with? I should also say that all three of those leaders are going to see each other this weekend in South Africa, the G20. So a deal. And then they can have a drink together in Joburg.

Fiona McRaith: [00:12:24] Exactly. All right. You heard it here first. Meanwhile, negotiations did continue. There's likely to be a lot of news out there about these over the coming days. And we also will be assessing the outcomes as events become clearer today. However, we wanted to bring you a little bit of detail on one Particular issue that's proven contentious. See Bams or carbon border adjustment mechanisms. Now don't worry, because our guest does explain what these mean and why the debate is being had.

Paul Dickinson: [00:12:56] Yeah. So Christiana and Tom talked with Teresa Ribera, executive vice president for clean, Just and Competitive Transition at the European Commission, who's kind of leading this in the world right now.

Christiana: [00:13:13] Teresa, thank you so much for joining us here on Inside Cop. One of the issues that seems still quite contentious a few days before the closing is what is called for the acronym Cbams. And I've heard people ask, you know, is it a sea urchin? Is it a sea sponge? What is it? So the acronym is C, b a, and it stands for carbon border Adjustment mechanisms, mostly being practiced by the EU, which is why we're really grateful that you are going to explain it to us.

Teresa Ribera: [00:13:52] Thank you, Christiana, for giving me a chance to explain a little bit what we intend and why it exists. You may remember from a long time ago that we decided that we were going to be the first ones, the leaders, promoting the decarbonisation of our economy. So we adopted a set of, um, rules to ensure that our industries could increasingly pay a price for carbon. So to induce, to invite them to become increasingly decarbonised, increasingly cleaner, according to our goals, to be fully decarbonised by 2050. There is a set of high level standards in terms of environmental and climate rules and they comply with these standards. And then there was this concern. Could this mean carbon leakage? So closing down our industries in Europe are moving towards a different region, where there would be no control of the emissions to produce the same goods. That could mean that emissions and then import.

Christiana: [00:15:03] Them back.

Teresa Ribera: [00:15:03] In. Yes. So the emissions could be taking place, but we could become absolutely this industrialised. That is not good for anyone, not for the climate, not for the industrials, not for the consumers or the workers in Europe. So we started to work and to facilitate a fair approach that it is based on the fact that, well, you may do whatever you want to do in your own jurisdiction so that you can produce according to your own national rules, irrespectively or where you are based. But if you want to enter into the European single market to sell your products, it could be important that you comply with a similar approach in terms of carbon pricing, so that the level playing field is preserved in the European market.

Christiana: [00:15:59] You know, it seems to me, Theresa, that there is a long term view about this and there is a short term view in the long term view. It is absolutely clear that these carbon border adjustments incentivise all economies outside of the EU to decarbonise as quickly as possible to put a carbon price, because who doesn't want to sell into the European market? And of course, the world is benefited by carbon pricing and by decarbonisation. And that is our common goal. So no questions about that. The short term view that some large developing countries are putting on the table is well, but right now we are not at the level of the European Union in terms of decarbonisation. So this is unfair. This is unfair against us because it is a unilateral measure that the Europeans have taken. We don't have the deployment of decarbonised industry and hence in the short term it's unfair to us. That is the discussion in in Belgium. Can you solve that magically with a little magic wand?

Teresa Ribera: [00:17:17] Well, I think that it is a little bit unfair towards the European Union to say this. We have been working for a very long time with all our partners. This is not something that it is compulsory. People may appreciate the fact that there is a high capacity to pay A by European consumers, and these high capacity to pay by European consumers, of course, could disappear if we do not produce anything, any wealth, any product at the very same time. What we have been trying to do during all these, um, phasing in period, including a pilot phase and the time that is still ahead us in terms of the phasing in a period that will still take some years, is to support, to help to work with these trade partners. So to count on systems that may work. Think of China. China has introduced an ETS system, an emissions trading system. Think of how it has been facilitating a much more thrilling economy in terms of how they have been promoting clean industry and clean products in the global markets. So I don't think that this is a real problem. I think that this is, um, as I said, a way to bridge between the internal domestic level playing field without going into a race to the bottom. No standards. Nobody wants no standards.

Speaker8: [00:18:52] Um, Theresa, I would like to ask you, um, there are obviously now considerable economic opportunities that come from climate leadership, but nevertheless, the politics has not always followed that. And the politics of setting ambitious climate goals can be challenging in many countries, including in the EU. You have just set a very ambitious NDC for 2035 that has created real momentum for Belgium. To what degree does the Cbam policy help you with the politics of an ambitious NDC? Because it shows that you're not asking Europeans to do something, and they are going to have their jobs taken by people in other parts of the world.

Teresa Ribera: [00:19:32] I honestly think that the decarbonisation story is a positive story. It's a story of innovation, high quality inclusiveness, facilities to provide services and goods to the people with high standards. It requires an effort, and there have been such a long list of companies trying to invest into this transformation that it is fair to say that they say, okay, please do also take into consideration that we are doing this because in the transition times, there may be some doing and some not doing. So how we can reflect that those doing can count on this level playing field that is not jeopardised because of any type of dumping. Social labour. Environmental dumping. And I think that it is our duty to promote this raise up to quality instead of raise down to the bottom. And of course, it has political implications because there may be many populistic readings saying, oh, you are forcing us to do more, but you are not taking into consideration that others do less. So you are bringing us into a situation of no possible defence, no possible safeguards to ensure that we can keep on providing good services, innovation, reinvestment in high quality products. Load More