329: Inside COP: The UN’s Top Climate Official on Week One of COP30

Full Transcript

Transcript generated by AI. While we aim for accuracy, errors may still occur. Please refer to the episode’s audio for the definitive version

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:00:00] Hello and welcome to Inside Cop from Outrage and Optimism. I'm Tom Rivett-carnac.

Christiana Figueres: [00:00:03] I'm Christiana Figueres and Tom, congratulations for finally nailing it inside cop, because.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:00:10] You don't need to reveal this to the listeners. You know.

Christiana Figueres: [00:00:12] I don't.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:00:14] Carry on.

Christiana Figueres: [00:00:14] You have revealed it yourself that you are welcome to outrage and optimism is so automatic for you. I wonder, do you say that every time you get into the shower?

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:00:24] I don't say that. But sometimes when I have been frustrated with my kids, I say something to them and they say, can you please not tell me off in your podcast voice, which is a very dismissive thing to say.

Christiana Figueres: [00:00:35] Okay, can we should we start this all over again? Because this is not very respectful. Yeah. Let's see if we get it right.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:00:43] Hello and welcome to Inside Cop from Outrage and Optimism I'm Tom Rivett-carnac. Look at that. Congratulations, Tom.

Christiana Figueres: [00:00:50] And I'm Christiana Figueres.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:00:51] Today we look at what's happening in the negotiation halls here in Belgium. And we bring you a conversation with UNF triple C Executive Secretary Simon Steel. Thanks for being here. So we're here in the media center, and this year 4000 media are registered to come to the Cop. This is where the story gets told and actually many. Well, I was going to say many of the people here who are doing the briefings are in here. And and over there at that desk is Ed King. Let's go and have a word with him, because he actually produces the specific briefings that help all of these people understand what's happening. So he'll have a really good handle on what's going on. Hello, sir. How are you? I see you.

Ed King: [00:01:35] I've been watching a massive protest or an action just outside with this blue.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:01:42] Oh, I saw that. It's quite amazing.

Ed King: [00:01:44] Yes, sir. I don't know, it was in Portuguese, I didn't understand. Okay. But I do think what's interesting about BLM as opposed to the last 3 or 4 cops. Yeah. Is that all of this kind of actions and the campaigners and the kind of vibe feels back.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:01:59] Yeah. It does. Actually that's true. Is that Brazil or is that. What do you think that is? Yeah.

Ed King: [00:02:03] Well, I think if you look back, we have been we were in three, 2 or 3 fairly oppressive regimes before.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:02:09] Okay.

Ed King: [00:02:10] And then the UK where everyone was wearing Covid masks.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:02:14] That's true.

Ed King: [00:02:14] Trying not to cough in each other's face. Yeah. And that was. Yeah. It was quite unpleasant. But no, there feels like a real vibe here now. And I think that's the that's my main takeaway the last couple of days.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:02:25] I mean, the flotilla's been amazing. The indigenous participation is amazing. All that sort of stuff is good.

Ed King: [00:02:30] We had a riot. Yeah, we've had loo doors collapsing. We've had water pouring through the ceiling.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:02:36] Come to cop people. It's great.

Ed King: [00:02:37] Yeah. We were we were staying in shipping containers where there were like, fire ants.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:02:41] I saw.

Ed King: [00:02:42] The pictures.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:02:42] Of your shipping. Are you no longer in there?

Ed King: [00:02:44] I know we we are weak. We evacuated. But but it is. It's kind of like you're on the front line, and I think. I think there's something good about that. There's something quite powerful.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:02:53] Now you write the daily climate diplomacy brief. You are a secret weapon of many people in these corridors with all of the insight and analysis. So today there's a whole you know, the consultations are going on. The presidency came out with this call for climate action. That is it a cover decision, is it not? We covered that in the podcast before, and now they're continuing to consult on these four different areas. What are you hearing about how those consultations are going and both on the broader issues there and specifically also on fossil fuels, which is emerging as one of the big topics this conference?

Ed King: [00:03:25] Yeah. So, you know, the if you've watched the film The Hunger Games, you've got kids. You probably kind of watch that live.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:03:30] The Hunger Games.

Ed King: [00:03:30] You live The Hunger Games. So The Hunger Games starts and they all like get dropped in the pod, don't they? And then they all run away and hide in places with their weapons. And then they kind of make contact with each other and try and work out if they're friends or not. I kind of think these talks are very much like The Hunger Games. They start right. Everyone kind of like panics a bit, runs off, and we're at that moment where you can see kind of different delegations are walking up to each other and try to understand.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:03:57] Who can they trust?

Ed King: [00:03:58] Yeah, who can they trust? And I think all the other countries are trying to work out what are the quid pro quos in that respect. And I think they probably understand that we need to you probably need to leave these two weeks with a strong signal to say, you know, one country's left, but 194 countries.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:04:17] Multilateralism is strong. The Paris Agreement is delivering. What are the elements of that that you think are really important?

Ed King: [00:04:23] Well, I think the so you've had this Baku to Berlin roadmap last year, which is the finance piece. And then Lula talked about the fossils roadmap and the forest roadmap. Right. And actually, if you think about it, finance fossils and forests. If you can solve those three key pieces, that is climate change. That's kind of all it is kind of grounds down to a core. But those are really three difficult pieces to to land. But I think what we're seeing now is countries yesterday Brazil came out Marina Silva, the environment minister, and talked about how she wanted to see a fossil fuel process or a process to phase out fossil fuels.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:05:03] Amazing.

Ed King: [00:05:03] Yeah. And then you saw the UK saying in the same meeting, we agree with that. Denmark said that. Germany said that. France said that Colombia kind of backed it. Kenya said yes. If there is money on the table. And I think that's really important because if you're an African minister and we've been talking to the African group of negotiators, they're in massive debt. They're still in debt from the financial crisis. They're still in debt from the economic crisis post Covid. They're still suffering from having to pay massive interest rates to invest in their infrastructure. Some of them are paying up to 10% a year to deal with climate impacts. Right. And these guys are turning up with small delegations because they can't afford the accommodation here. They already look tired. But I think that finance piece is key. We need to see some of those wealthier countries, particularly when the ministers turn up this weekend, signal that they have cash or they're going to be able to deliver cash. And then we might start to see.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:06:02] Yeah. Well, I can see how that then builds into momentum. And that would be amazing if we were able to get something really substantial on on fossil fuels here. Um, I mean, how I remember in my day, you know, what would be happening at this point is like, you know, the Hunger Games analogy camp of the Russians and the Saudis would be like getting their arrows ready to sort of like, come out and begin to attack the other camps is that that's all going on, I'm sure.

Ed King: [00:06:24] I mean.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:06:26] They've been pretty quiet.

Ed King: [00:06:26] I think the Saudi Arabians are, I think, behind closed doors. The reports we get, as they are, as ever they're playing.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:06:34] They're very sophisticated.

Ed King: [00:06:36] They're playing hard to get. And if you think about it from their perspective, they're an economy that knows it needs to transition. They've said they want to transition. There was a report out two years ago by one of the main Saudi think tanks said, if the world hits Something as awful as three degrees, Saudi Arabia will be virtually unlivable. The thermal power plants will stop working. Their desalination plants will stop working. They won't be able to drive on the streets because their cars won't be able to keep their inhabitants cool. So this is a country that kind of understands what it's up against, but is facing also a squeeze economically. It's almost in a race. And you're seeing you're seeing the Saudis invest a lot in solar this year because they're trying to push oil off their power grid and use solar instead. So there's there's a there are a number of different elements with the Saudis that need to be looked at. But yeah, you'd imagine over the weekend next week they will complain and say stuff is moving too fast. The Russians will complain and say stuff is moving too fast. But then you've got other groups like UAE who kicked off this whole push to phase out fossil fuels. They own that. Yeah. You know, Sultan Al Jaber owns that. Yeah. And I would expect you would start to see people like him starting to make the case that actually this is a transition that maybe is not going to happen overnight, but we should start planning for it.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:07:58] Do you think I mean, you're you're someone who, you know, looks at the analysis here but also understands how the media works and reports out from here. Um, given the gap we have had in national determined contributions coming into this, you know, we're now looking at language on fossil fuels and forests, which is all really important in finance. But is there anything that the people who are here can do that will be sufficient to address the gap so that when we get to the end of this cop, the headline isn't Trump walks away and the world burns in the Amazon at 1.5 is gone. I mean, it's a high bar, isn't it?

Ed King: [00:08:29] But this is this is all a confidence game, isn't it? In a sense, nothing right here, right now is going to change everything. But it's about those kind of slow, steady, measured signals to markets that the show is still on the road. And I think what's interesting here is there is a longer game being played by some of these countries. So Trump might be in power for another two years, three years. But there's a there's a longer game. And I think looking at it in the, in the framing of this cop is going to solve everything or is going to shave, you know, shave XYZ is is asking the wrong question. It's not a cup final. It's not a moment where everyone's going to leave and say, we're winners, but it is a moment where it sends the signals globally to say, no, we've had ten years of the Paris Agreement. And actually, if you look at the UN report that came out in July and showed the level of growth you're seeing in solar, in wind, in batteries, in EVs, that is accelerating, it's not just because of the Paris Agreement, but it added that underlying kind of and every few years you have these national climate plans. They're not doing enough, they're not good enough, but they take you up a level bit by bit.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:09:43] And that that principle, which and I promise I'll let you go in a minute. I need you to run. Um. That national commitments are statements of political expediency. They're what? It makes sense for a government to communicate to their domestic citizens. They're not statements of how fast they'll decarbonise. How well do the media understand them?

Ed King: [00:10:00] No, I think it's it's it's difficult. Some of these journalists are absolutely kind of in the weeds and have covered this for decades. Others. Others come in and I think it's it's difficult. Some of them potentially, you know, they come in and they're told their national determined contributions are super important. They look at it and they think, well, you know, there are a lot of countries not on the list, a lot not doing enough. Um, you know, it's up to all of us, yourself and others to try and explain that it's not just about those pledges. There's a broader, deeper, richer story. And that's sometimes not a good story because you're seeing deforestation continuing. You saw the Climate Action Tracker report this morning that said the NDCs aren't shifting as fast as they could. But there's also the other underlying reality that I think folks need to understand, which is this whole climate process started when the emerging economies growth absolutely supercharged, like the 90s, early 2000. The UK was still a bigger economy than China. I'm pretty sure up to about 2005, which is incredible to imagine. So the growth we're seeing, it's not going to change overnight. So it's it's about that kind of confidence, incremental shifts as opposed to, you know, Houdini out of a hat.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:11:26] And it's good to see you. Thanks so much for talking to us. Yeah I mean, Ed King, long time, long standing personality of the climate negotiations, super informed about everything that's going on the network that they have to kind of pull intelligence and information about what's happening. So great to have that discussion with him. And I think, you know, obviously he talked about these broad areas around finance, fossil fuel and forests. But maybe one thing that would be interesting for you and I to talk about is that what we're hearing is that one of the big discussions happening right now in the plenaries is how this cop can respond to the gap NDCs. Of course, nationally determined contributions were submitted by countries. There is a big gap on where those are heading for and where we need to be. And we've talked, of course, about the fact that we should economically overachieve them and all that stuff. But nevertheless, this cop has to respond to that gap in some way. So what are the options?

Christiana Figueres: [00:12:20] Well, I'm not sure what the options are yet. And I think the Cop presidency is being incredibly wise to not put options on the table yet. But let's just stand back for a second and say this is a problem of their own doing, because it is understandable that most NDCs are underpromising. Underestimating. Especially because these are NDCs until the year 2035. But most countries have been incredibly cautious about what they put in their NDC because of the threat of tariffs and bullying. Et cetera. Et cetera. Et cetera. And also because they're just trying to understand why is the United States not there to begin with?

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:13:11] We're all trying.

Christiana Figueres: [00:13:12] To we're all trying to still understand that. So. So the fact is it's very interesting that they're trying to solve a problem that they have to a certain extent, created. Yes. Had they put in NDCs that reflect the reality?

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:13:29] Yes.

Christiana Figueres: [00:13:30] The gaping hole between that and where we ought to be wouldn't be quite as challenging. So the NDCs respond to a political calculation. But now they have to figure out what they do with that political calculation, because they have to come up with a political response.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:13:52] Yeah, it's interesting, isn't it? You're absolutely right. They've made a political strategy to under egg it. And now what the response is to that under egging. So how that then manifests. It's not a perfect analogy, but I remember years ago when my sister had a child in primary school, she would do the drawings for the child to take in because the child was tired in the evening with her left hand and do the homework. Hand that to the school, and the school would then present it back to her with great pride about what the child had been delivering, and sort of like this circular notice of doing something. Um, so, so given that, I mean, but nevertheless, there has to be some kind of clear signal if the UNF triple C process to deal with climate change is going to have credibility, then there needs to be some kind of response to that gap. Right. And absolutely that will that be like will it be a textual thing that comes out of this? Will it be I mean, even if we don't fully know all of the options that are being discussed right now, what sorts of areas might that be in?

Christiana Figueres: [00:14:50] Well, I think that's where the discussion on the various roadmaps plural comes in, because definitely from where the NDCs are right now, 12% reduction from baseline by 2035 to where we ought to be, according to science, which is above 50% by 2035. That's a huge distance. So what do you do when you have point A and point B? You draw a line between point A and point B, which in this context I think is taking on the name of roadmaps. And you will remember that the Cop president told us that he and the previous Cop president had put on the table before the cop started a financial road map. And that, of course, has then opened up the door for many to go. Like, okay, if we have one road map that is accepted by the Cop president, then can we not have others? So there's a road map for our economy, or there's a hope and an expectation for a road map that takes us beyond fossil fuels. There's a hope and expectation for a road map on nature based solutions, stopping deforestation, increasing forestry around the world. And I think it has become the favorite solution, the favorite thing to solve any problem. So because because anything that we look at, there's a huge distance between where we are and where we ought to go. So I think we will have a plethora of Roadmaps at least desires for them.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:16:37] Okay. And then that will be part of the answer to how do we bring these two things back together. That's very helpful. Now earlier today, you and I and the team made our way into the offices of the UNF, triple C, and went into what would have been your office, the office of the Executive Secretary. And you sat down with Simon Steele, the current executive secretary of the ACC. And we're now going to bring you that conversation. Anything you want to say to set it up.

Christiana Figueres: [00:17:00] It was a very strange experience for me, honestly.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:17:04] I was thinking of you.

Christiana Figueres: [00:17:05] Um, because on the way up there, of course, I saw many, uh, dear beloved colleagues that I remember with such respect. And as we entered into the office, I just had so many déja vu. So, yeah, an interesting experience.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:17:21] It looked just like your office, I remember. Yeah. All right, so before we go to the interview with Simon, um, Christana, you actually started this interview by posing a question to Simon from an activist who asked us. So let's quickly play that clip before we go in.

Christiana Figueres: [00:17:36] We started the conversation with Simon with this question, just because I thought it was such a human, loving, feeling sensitive question to ask someone who is just walking 27 hours and with all the pressure to pause and ask him, how are you feeling? I just thought it was a beautiful question.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: [00:17:59] A great way to start. It's a great way to start. Let's go to the conversation.

Julian Berkowitz: [00:18:08] Hi, I'm Julian Berkowitz. I'm here on behalf of Nature International, and I would like to hear how Simon Steel is feeling. I think it's incredibly important, especially in these forms, to actually understand why people are making the decisions that they are doing, what are their emotional, political and personal interests and how that motivates the conclusions that they come to.

Christiana Figueres: [00:18:30] How's that for a wonderful question.

Simon Steele: [00:18:32] Oh. I'm feeling, um. Privileged to actually be here and to be at the epicenter of in a topic that is of such crucial importance at a time where the process needs to evolve to be in the Amazon again. The agenda that Brazil has created around this, this cop, I think this is a very, very special moment, surrounded by so many of us who are supportive of the process, who want to see an outcome that the world needs. So I'm conscious of this space from a physical perspective. It's late nights. It's not a lot of sleep. It's a lot of running around, um, a lot of energy expended. But I'm actually, This excites me. I enjoy this and it may be you will understand. It may sound a little perverse.

Christiana Figueres: [00:19:38] I'm excited to see how that sentence finishes. Please.

Simon Steele: [00:19:45] But this is. This excites me. It interests me. Um, we're in a unique position to, um, to be part of of of of all that's actually taking place. So I'm excited, tired, but I'm excited and hopeful. Hopeful that all of this energy that is being expended by the 30 odd thousand, 40,000, I don't know what the latest numbers are who are actually here. Yeah, I feed off that energy.

Christiana Figueres: [00:20:17] So, you know, one thing, um, that I remember from my time and hasn't gotten any better is that it's very difficult for people on the outside to understand what is the difference in the role of the Executive Secretary, in fact, of the entire Secretariat vis a vis the Cop president presidency? There's two different institutions, two different roles, and I would just love to hear your take.

Simon Steele: [00:20:50] I think in very simplistic terms, uh, the presidency sets the political direction. Uh, the Secretariat provides the technical support to that, um, supporting the presidency in executing their vision. What their interpretation of what needs to be delivered in a given year. And for us to provide that technical support, but with two considerations. One is the political sensitivity. It's not simply a, uh, as technocrats, we have to be aware of all of the political sensitivities that that surround that and how to appropriately, technically facilitate. And the second, as custodians of the process, it's understanding the guardrails that are presidency can operate within and uh, presidencies. You know, they serve a term or a year.

Christiana Figueres: [00:21:50] A year.

Simon Steele: [00:21:51] A year. The constant in this process after three decades is the secretariat. So we have that institutional knowledge. We have a vast, vast amount of experience and knowledge. And within that, it's ensuring that providing the presidency with that flexibility to deliver on their vision is ensuring that their vision is appropriate to the convention. It's appropriate to and to the Paris Agreement, so guidance as to where they can lean in, where they ought not to lean in. That is important, and the relationship between the Secretariat and the presidency is also key. Um, ensuring that communications, common interests and common understandings are there. And that also requires quite a sensitive touch.

Christiana Figueres: [00:22:48] This is your fourth call. What would you say is different about this one?

Simon Steele: [00:22:53] And what's significant about Cop 30 is it's a culmination of the three cops that have gone before. It's certainly during my tenure. If we look at what was achieved at Cop27 with loss and damage, that was a breakthrough again, after 30 years of sometimes quite acrimonious debate to come out with a significant outcome such as that. Building on that at Cop 28 with the global stock take, which was an opportunity to really look at where we are within the process, that opportunity to reflect, look at what's working, look at what's not working, but set out a pathway forward. And the course correction that we spoke of in Dubai and coming out of Dubai, you know, we talked about history being made and I think history can be made. Adding so Cop 28 to 29 and 30, I think the the aggregate of those three I think will show that true course correction. So Dubai the course forward the course correction that roadmap to closing the gap. Then we would have seen that key enabler of of ambition in implementation is finance. So the big deliverable last year was on the new climate finance goal we left Baku with a number of 300 billion underwhelming for developing countries, but three times the financial provisions of the previous period. So a significant increase still not enough, but with the promise of delivering on the roadmap to 1.3. Which brings us brings us here also the reflection on the call for countries to come forward with new ambitious plans, again recognising that gap.

Simon Steele: [00:24:52] And we've received many which in terms of climate action plans which show increased efforts, the quality of these climate plans far more detailed, far more comprehensive than previous generations. But they're supposed to be the nationally determined reflections of what countries are willing to do to close that gap. The question now is, and the what will make Cop 30 t unique is how that all comes together. Recognizing additional effort has been demonstrated. We are for the first time bending the emissions curve 12% currently versus the 60% that science demands. So there is still that yawning gap. But the key thing what will make this cop unique is saying that from the global stocktake, we recognise where those gaps are, additional effort is required. This is that additional effort recognizing there is still a gap. But how will this cop respond? How will it respond to the roadmap on 1.3 trillion? So for further upscaling of of finance, recognizing the need for more. And how does that speak to accelerating implementation and closing the gap? So we've got until the end of next week to see how parties respond. But the opportunity that's been presented is to certainly send very strong signals at a technical level. More is being done. Not enough. But recognizing that, you know, where where does the process go?

Christiana Figueres: [00:26:32] You have very compellingly described a journey, because each cop builds on the previous cop and attempts to mark a very clear progress step in what is a long journey. I remember when I was sitting in your seat that one of the most difficult things for me, Simon, was to understand that, to understand that it is a journey, that it takes time and nothing is going to change that. And at the same time feel the urgency. And those two constantly competing for my attention for for my, my concentration. Because both are true at the same time Last year you had a hurricane five that came through Grenada, which means that you feel the urgency viscerally, viscerally, not just in your head. You feel it viscerally. How do you manage to bring both of those two things together? Load More