337: Inside COP: Friday Night in Belém - uncertainty in the Blue Zone
This episode is a time capsule that captures the feeling of a COP Friday: the confusion, the determination, the fear of losing ambition, and the belief, still very much alive, that progress is possible.
Related Episodes
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
About this episode
We recorded this episode across Friday afternoon and deep into the evening inside the Blue Zone at COP30. At the time of publishing, there is still no final deal. The negotiations are ongoing, positions are shifting, and the outcome remains uncertain. We know that by the time you listen, some of what we heard today may already have changed, but we decided there was value in sharing the day with you.
This episode is meant as a time capsule.
We wanted to bring you inside the atmosphere of a COP Friday: the outrage, the optimism, the urgency, and the sheer human effort that goes into trying to land a deal.
Rather than wait for the dust to settle, we spoke to the people living this moment. City leaders. Climate diplomats. Ministers from the front lines. Seasoned negotiators who’ve been in this process for decades. Activists still fighting for the best possible outcome for the planet. Their perspectives were captured as they were living this day, not in hindsight.
This episode captures the feeling of a COP Friday: the confusion, the determination, the fear of losing ambition, and the belief, still alive in many corners, that progress is possible if countries choose it.
With thanks to those who spoke with us:
Eric Garcetti, former US Ambassador to India and former mayor of LA
Mark Watts, CEO of C40
Matt Webb, Associate Director for Global Clean Power Diplomacy, E3G
Gustavo Pinheiro, Senior Associate, E3G
Irene Velez Torres, Colombian Minister for Environment and Sustainable Development and head of the Colombian delegation
Dr. Antwi-Boasiako Amoah, Ghanian Negotiator and incoming head of Africa Group of Negotiators (AGN)
Giovanni Maurice Pradipta, Foundation for Sustainability
🎤 What do you want to hear on Inside COP? Ask us on SpeakPipe or on our socials where you can also see more behind the scenes moments and to watch our videos:
Instagram @outrageoptimism
LinkedIn @outrageoptimism
Or via this form.
Produced and edited by: Caitlin Hanrahan and Ben Weaver-Hincks
Additional editing by: Miles Martignoni
Exec Producer: Ellie Clifford
With thanks to Groundswell and Global Optimism.
This is a Persephonica production for Global Optimism and is part of the Acast Creator Network.
Full Transcript
Transcript generated by AI. While we aim for accuracy, errors may still occur. Please refer to the episode’s audio for the definitive version
Paul Dickinson: [00:00:00] Hi everyone! After we recorded our first episode today, Friday, we headed to the Blue Zone.Fiona McRaith: [00:00:07] Not, with the expectation that the outcomes of the negotiation would immediately become clear. But because that's where people had gathered, including all of those who had put in two weeks and often entire careers and lives into these efforts.
Paul Dickinson: [00:00:20] Our sense was that whatever story unfolded, it was important to share what was happening and how people were feeling and what was being fought for.
Paul Dickinson: [00:00:32] Okay, so, uh, we got our first message in WhatsApp. We're off to see, actually pretty exciting, you know, big, powerful force in the world, this city. So we're going to talk to Mark, what's the chief executive of the C40 cities program. And Eric Garcetti, who is former mayor of Los Angeles, former chair of the C40, former ambassador to India. It's kind of high octane group. It's Friday, it's a little bit past 3 p.m., and you've just spoken to the president of the Cop. Can I ask what you asked him and what he told you so.
Eric Garcetti: [00:01:02] And there was some decent energy still left in that room, which gave me some hope, some optimism that we can actually get things done. But we said he served actually as ambassador in India a month before I arrived as ambassador in India. So we had this kind of bond from way back. We both have lived in Delhi. We've survived the most polluted air in the world. And I just said simply, there's two small acts that aren't even asked. They're actually gives pick up this trophy off the ground and lift it up, which is incorporating our ask to have action be part of the agenda with city states and regions, because right now, one country in the world is on track to meet the Paris science. Denmark. That's it. But of the 100 largest cities, three quarters of them are on track or ahead of track.
Paul Dickinson: [00:01:46] You're the former mayor of Los Angeles? Yes. How does it feel to be, in a sense, representing cities, states and regions when the nation is missing?
Eric Garcetti: [00:01:55] You know, I'm really proud of America and Americans for showing up in the numbers that we did. The second largest contingent of subnational leaders after Brazil was America. And my message is, don't see the power you have before you exercise it. Don't ever let one person speak for you. And in term one, when President Trump said he was going to withdraw from Paris, I was the chair of something called Climate Mayors, which is the US group of mayors, bipartisan Democrats, Republicans and independents across the entire United States. Instead of crying in a corner, we picked up the phone, and by the end of the month, we had 750 mayors and cities who said, if he's out, we're in. So screw what he says. Let's just do it on our own.
Paul Dickinson: [00:02:37] If 75% of cities have made it but only one nation, what is the secret of cities? Why are they so successful in achieving the goals of Paris?
Eric Garcetti: [00:02:45] Well, two things. One, we act with the speed of thievery. I always say, you know, good mayors borrow, great mayors steal. And you hear London's doing something. You want to do it the next day, and you don't have to wait months or years to to negotiate that you're in charge of a city. Secondly, our constituents demand it when there's a fire like we saw in Los Angeles, in my city this year, when there's a flood, in a city, when people die because of extreme heat days. You can't wait around for a study. You can't wait for legal negotiators to push a compact forward. You better take action or you're out of office. And more importantly, I always say, every prime minister, every president and every negotiator here lives in a city and she or he rides the bus, lives in a home, has a family to protect, turns on the light switches. So this isn't us and them. We are you and you are us. When you come back to that city, realize cities are moving and we're here to help you move faster at the national level.
Paul Dickinson: [00:03:41] Dear Mr. Mark Watts, Executive Director of the C40, here we are the day after the fire. Where are we on this final Friday?
Mark Watts: [00:03:50] Deeply troubling waters at the moment, I would say the draft text this morning. Very disappointing. Saying it's clearly a small number of parties trying to reduce Brazil's concept of the global mutual. That takes us from negotiation to implementation. Reduce it to ashes. Really? We're, um, we're not nowhere near where we need to be on fossil fuels. Not as far as we'd hoped on just transition. And we're disappointed because Brazil's been so amazing at creating a space here to open up this cop to the implementers, to the doers, which includes our constituency of mayors and governors. But there's nothing in the text at the moment about that. We are putting everything we've got into this to move in the parties here, to shift this text from where it's at. And there's one easy, really easy thing they can do just change who's at the table. If you look at the per capita emission reduction in C40 cities five times faster than the global average.
Paul Dickinson: [00:04:45] What's the story of the next few hours? Mark? What do you sense is going to happen in these next critical few hours?
Mark Watts: [00:04:51] It's definitely not over. You know, we are talking to a lot of parties who are not budging on wanting much stronger text on fossil fuels, but also really wanting to realize this sense of the move from negotiation to implementation.
Fiona McRaith: [00:05:07] It's so clear when you hear them why it just makes so much sense. And I think it's easy to forget that and be like, no, this is multilateral at the national level, and I don't exclude that. But it is kind of just mind blowing, especially when they're consistently especially C40 cities are consistently ushering in the new clean, green economy.
Paul Dickinson: [00:05:26] I think what I take from the mark's frustration is that, you know, the members of the C40, they're just going to go ahead and do this anyway. But there are these literally thousands and thousands of cities around the world who all could be empowered and made, you know, more audacious and braver and move faster with with the right kind of consideration here. So that's why I know that he wants it so much. And I think it's, you know, I trust his judgment. Okay. We're gonna get, I think, for you found a couple of political experts from the pretty impressive think tank M-3-g, who are totally kind of wired into the political infrastructure of the world. Who are you speaking to?
Fiona McRaith: [00:06:04] So we're going to speak with Matt Webb and Gustavo Pinheiro, both of whom and E3G overall have been huge partners of mission 2025. So they've just come out of a press conference, um, debriefing kind of what's happening on the negotiations. So we're going to get it from them directly. Hello. I'm standing here very formally next to Matt from E3G. Matt, you've just come out of a briefing about kind of the state of state negotiations. Can you break it down relatively quickly for our listeners and followers?
Matt Webb: [00:06:37] Absolutely. Well, you're a pivotal moment here where parties are responding to the second text that's come out. The second text is much more of a what you could say, a baseline document. And parties are now having to work up the ambition to get a really positive outcome in the next 24 hours.
Fiona McRaith: [00:06:54] Yeah. So a lot of stuff was missing from this baseline document, including on fossil fuels, on deforestation. How do you make sense of that?
Matt Webb: [00:07:00] So it's been a difficult two days. And the venue I think you're right to say that the first text was really expressive. It had lots of ideas, lots of options and lots of creativity. It looks and, you know, there's been stories in the halls. It looks like some of the big players have gone in and said, actually, a lot of the stuff we're uncomfortable with and we want to shut this down. And what you've seen is a much lower baseline document, which is not acceptable for an outcome of this conference.
Fiona McRaith: [00:07:27] Yeah. And do you think there's a chance that there isn't any outcome, any agreed upon text?
Matt Webb: [00:07:32] Well, I'm going to say optimism.
Fiona McRaith: [00:07:34] I like.
Matt Webb: [00:07:34] That.
Fiona McRaith: [00:07:35] I like that we're not yet at the outrage stage of. And then, of course, we know that Lula is probably on his way to Joburg for the G20. What do you think? You know, if there's not something here, do you think we should turn our eyes there to see if he can push some of this through? Load More
Matt Webb: [00:07:50] I think it's hugely important. I think, you know, President Lula has you know, he he he turned this on its head at the World Leaders Summit. He said what he wanted to see here. He said he wanted these roadmaps. He wanted to work on the fossil fuel, get us off our dependency. He wanted to work on stopping deforestation that the Brazilian president is going to have to deliver for their president. And, you know, critically, as a global South leader, going to sit with with Ramaphosa and the other G20 leaders, there is every chance for Lula to influence them, to bring success here in these talks. So I'm still I'm going to stay in the optimism camp.
Fiona McRaith: [00:08:28] So going back to the fossil fuel roadmap, what specifics were in there or would we expect to see in there? And were some of those red lines, you know, to use some of the jargon, what in there might have been major sticking points.
Matt Webb: [00:08:40] So I think we need to just acknowledge two things. One is that Lula raised the bar and surprised a lot of people with his backing for the roadmap.
Fiona McRaith: [00:08:50] And sorry, was that at the very beginning of this?
Matt Webb: [00:08:53] This was in the leaders even before the cop started. He stood up and said, these are things I want to see. And I think, you know, parties were not expecting that. And it's, you know, that is that sort of rang the bell. It's like, okay, we're off. And then you've seen the second thing, which is you've seen an extraordinary coalition of global North and global South countries come forward and say, yes, we need to plot this pathway together. And that's extraordinary. Of course, it's meant that there hasn't been a huge amount of time to work out the the modalities, the way it's going to work, the pieces, the structures. And, you know, countries are working that through in these halls right now. The message I've taken from the way that the Brazilians have expressed this is this needs to be a constructive conversation where we look at the contradictions, look at the things that are difficult, but we create a space to work that through. It has to be mandated by the Paris Agreement and the structures, and it has to have a way of linking back to the structures in each year for the next 2 or 3 years to drive the negotiations forward. So let's hope we see that.
Fiona McRaith: [00:09:54] We know that cops are are two weeks and a load of pre-work and work that follows after. It's not just these two weeks, but this is kind of the moment when the world's media will refocus on this. But so much is happening outside. So what's the kind of signal or headline that you think businesses or other sectors in the world will need coming out of here, or how should they respond?
Matt Webb: [00:10:14] I guess so, I think against a backdrop of, you know, chaos, turbulence, you know, political change like we haven't seen leaders have come here, delegates have come here, and there has been a real spirit of energy, of looking forward. And so I think these negotiations have reflected the the facts on the ground, which are the clean energy revolution is moving at massive pace. And actually countries here are now looking for plans, pathways and real concrete steps to actually get to the benefits of the clean energy that's happening in the real world. So I think that's why this feels so energetic. But we've got to turn that into text and outcomes for the Paris Agreement in the next 24 hours.
Fiona McRaith: [00:10:58] Hello, Gustavo. Hey.
Gustavo Pinheiro: [00:11:00] Hey. How are you?
Fiona McRaith: [00:11:01] I'm doing all right. How are you?
Gustavo Pinheiro: [00:11:02] Good, good. How are you?
Fiona McRaith: [00:11:04] Good. You're feeling good.
Gustavo Pinheiro: [00:11:06] Well, we are in expectations of results. So, uh, it's a feeling of optimism and hope. Yeah. That cop 30 will deliver, uh, what everyone wants.
Fiona McRaith: [00:11:18] What are three top things that you're looking for to be delivered?
Gustavo Pinheiro: [00:11:21] Yeah. So, uh, I think the most, uh, urgent thing for us to deliver here is adaptation. Yes. Uh, just because communities are suffering from climate impacts everywhere. We saw many disasters just in these two weeks of, uh, throughout the world. So adaptation for me is priority number one.
Fiona McRaith: [00:11:39] I totally agree. Can you break down what's happening on adaptation right now?
Gustavo Pinheiro: [00:11:43] Yeah. So I think the two main things that we are pursuing, is adaptation finance. We got at least triple the adaptation finance available for developing and most vulnerable countries. We need much more than that. We need actually trillions and trillions for adaptation. But that would be a good beginning, I would say.
Fiona McRaith: [00:12:01] Yeah, a sign of solidarity, of trust.
Gustavo Pinheiro: [00:12:04] Yes. It could support, uh, the re-establishment of trust between the global North and global South.
Fiona McRaith: [00:12:10] Yeah. So that's one of the things on adaptation we would need. Are there others?
Gustavo Pinheiro: [00:12:14] Yes. We also need the indicators. Right. Because we cannot advance in an agenda that we don't track. It's like uh with emissions. It took us a lot of science, a lot of tracking, uh, for us to understand what is happening and how much we had to lower our emissions for adaptation. It's the same. We know we have to triple funding. At least we know we need much more than that. But we don't have the data today. We know there are impacts. We see the the results. We see the the climate extremes happening. Uh, but we don't have the data to actually develop the public policies that are needed to deliver it at scale.
Fiona McRaith: [00:12:55] Got it. What is another big area that you are focused on right now you're tracking?
Gustavo Pinheiro: [00:12:59] So, uh, the second area I think is key for us to develop here is still on the social side of things is the just transition work program, and that's key to unlock many other agendas, because that speaks to workers, that speaks to traditional peoples, that speaks to both urban and rural populations. It's something that, uh, can have an indirect impact on other agenda items, as well as to ensure for the developing world that nobody will be left behind.
Fiona McRaith: [00:13:27] Yeah. I mean, we often talk about the transition or the new economy rising without ever acknowledging the skills and the people that are going to bridge that gap. So I absolutely agree. The just transition cannot happen without people, without skills, without education. And what's the status on that in negotiations, but also broad more broadly in the world.
Gustavo Pinheiro: [00:13:47] Yeah. Well for, for for just transition. There's a lot of happening already. And as you saw that in the climate action agenda here. Yeah. But we have huge gaps. For instance, just in India we have more than 5 million workers in coal mines.
Fiona McRaith: [00:14:00] Wow.
Gustavo Pinheiro: [00:14:01] What are we going to do with these people? We need to offer them alternatives. Uh, so it's in a certain way understandable when countries kind of block negotiations or delay it because they, they see that their most of their population might be being left behind in the developing world. Uh, so it's key for us to, to address it in a very strong way, uh, to have a, an action mechanism come out of Berlin that can actually deliver, uh, the pathways for transitioning, uh, in a very equitable just way, so that the population and the workers and traditional peoples that are from the global South, especially, uh, do have pathways to, uh, Opportunities and don't suffer just with the costs of transition.
Fiona McRaith: [00:14:47] Gustavo, thank you so much for breaking down two really big issues that are often kind of just headlines and really helping us understand what we're looking for, what's important and why it is. Thank you.
Paul Dickinson: [00:14:58] Okay. So in the in this day when we don't really know what's going on, Matt seemed to confirm professionally and with expert opinion that we didn't know what was going on. So it's good to have that confirmed. What about Gustavo?
Fiona McRaith: [00:15:10] Gustavo brought in such a clear breakdown of two issues that are really, really important here at the cop adaptation and just transition. They are perennial issues and really just huge kudos to him for having such such insight.
Paul Dickinson: [00:15:24] I mean, it's good that we actually have a country head in Brazil who's like an expert in this area and runs their own think tank and stuff. So, you know, kudos 3G always ahead of the game. Okay. Good news. We have a meeting with the Minister of the Environment of Colombia, and I believe she and Colombia have been leading on both fossil fuels and deforestation. All right.
Fiona McRaith: [00:15:47] Yeah, that's exactly right, in fact. And we heard this in our conversation with 3G. They just announced today that they would host co-host with the Netherlands, the first international conference for the phase out of fossil fuels in Santa Marta, Colombia, in April. Huge thanks to our colleague Renee for helping us get this meeting. I mean, like the fact that we're able to speak with her and Colombia is leading on some of the most important parts of the negotiation that have dropped out of the text. I mean, it's really quite shocking. I think we should probably get going, though. Producers. Is that okay?
Paul Dickinson: [00:16:18] She is the person of the moment. Let's go. Minister Irene Velez Torres. Thank you so much for joining us on Inside Cop. This is maybe 5 p.m. on the Friday afternoon critical time. I'd like to ask you, first of all, if we may, how you are seeing the negotiations, what you're wanting and what you're expecting.
Irene Velez Torres: [00:16:37] I think we have or we are very close to reaching a dead point. Why is it that I think it is, at least partially because there has been a difficulty to incorporate in the texts things that are absolutely crucial for countries like Colombia, like Iraq, like the European Union. We have been insisting since the pre-cop and in the different spaces of conversation, also in the mutual decision that we need to see a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels, a roadmap to protect nature and forests, and we need to also see concrete delivery of finance. Those three items have been completely erased from the text, but also from discussion. I am very much amazed of the way it has been dealt with, because apparently there is like a half and a and half. Division in the room, half supporting the roadmap to phase out fossil fuels. Half. Opposing the roadmap. But all from the sudden the presidency opted to just back. Those who are in favor of protecting the fossil fuels, industries and interests. So we, the most ambitious and the ones that have contributed the least to the climate change and that need a lot more support in terms of finance access, preserving our forests have been left behind.
Paul Dickinson: [00:18:17] You are leading on protecting forests and you've also been leading on fossil fuel phase out roadmap. Can you explain why you bring that leadership and what you're going to do now?
Irene Velez Torres: [00:18:29] Well, science has already said that if you don't take the right decisions at this moment, next year is going to be too late. We have been waiting years and decades for this conference to take the right decisions. It's been ten years since the Paris Agreement, and we know there is a huge gap between the NDCs and the achievement of the goal, 1.5 degrees. So we know that action has to be taken now. What are those actions? I think it will be denialism to actually try to only focus on adaptation if we are forgetting what is the source of contamination. 80% of the global warming emissions are coming from fossil fuels. So from the Colombian government, what we are saying is we won't we won't agree with a text that is not dealing with the root cause of the climate change problem, and that is we won't agree with the text. That doesn't include a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels and a roadmap to protect the most important value to actually compensate for climate change, which is forest.
Fiona McRaith: [00:19:54] Minister, we know that in Dubai, the the government's already agreed to phasing out fossil fuels, and we know that there's already been agreement to halt and reverse deforestation. So why have they fallen out of the agreement here? Why are these roadmaps not on. I mean, you say there's kind of half and half. There's increasing countries signing on to the roadmap. Just yesterday, some major ones, including Australia signed on. So why can you help us understand. But also our listeners understand why would these have dropped.
Irene Velez Torres: [00:20:24] Yes, we already said it in Dubai. But what we said there was like a general announcement. So that's easy. Well, sometimes it's not that easy, but that's easier.
Fiona McRaith: [00:20:35] It's not specific.
Irene Velez Torres: [00:20:36] Yeah, it's not as specific as soon as you ask them. Okay. From the announcement to reality to action. What are you doing? Then everyone steps back. That's one side of the explanation. But something else that is happening is the effect of the US having stepped out from the Paris Agreement again. Yeah. Why is that? Well, because he that countries is still the most important polluter. Yeah. So if the most important polluter is not here taking responsibility and actually helping constructing alternatives and making concrete goals to achieve a climate justice, then all the other countries feel very much relaxed. Yes. And they don't feel they have to commit to anything because the most important polluter is not doing anything. So I think it's also like a yeah, a consequence of an absence that is actually not very much discussed in the rooms. But I think it's a it's an outcome of the absence of the US in these negotiations.
Fiona McRaith: [00:21:50] So, Paul, one of the things that I've been thinking about since our chat just a few minutes ago with the Colombian minister, was her hypothesis about why the negotiations or why this draft text is so bare or so different lost the fossil fuel language, lost deforestation language. And one of the things she said is that the US isn't here. And everyone, the 194 countries that are here kind of know that the US isn't going to adhere to any of the fossil fuel roadmap stuff. You know, it just got me thinking about. Trump announced potential plans to open the coast of California and the coast of Florida to drilling. And again, those are potential plans. And it just, you know, such a master of the distract the convenient like headline to kind of send signals that these things aren't important. And I was just wondering, like the extent to which her hypothesis is totally true. What do you make of.
Paul Dickinson: [00:22:48] I'm sure she's right that you know that countries think they can be kind of, like, more lazy. I mean, I have to tell you that under Biden or Obama or whatever, I think countries felt that they had to rise to the occasion. We're on our way to meet now, doctor Anthony Bosanko Amara, who's a Ghanian negotiator and the incoming head of the African group of negotiators. So that's a pretty important person around here. But I think what we can try and maybe cover in this conversation is about Ghana and and more broadly, all the nations of Africa where a billion people live, you know, adaptation is nontrivial. Like, sorry, I'm going to use the phrase millions of people dying from climate impacts.
Fiona McRaith: [00:23:26] Yeah, absolutely. I'm really so, so grateful to have this opportunity to chat and grateful to my friend Josh, who helped put us in contact.
Dr. Antwi-Boasiako Amoah: [00:23:36] My name is Doctor Amoah. I have a very typical Ghanaian name. I don't have any English name, interestingly, so I'm a director in charge of climate change in Ghana and I'm the lead negotiator for Ghana's delegation. And just about two weeks ago, I've been elected as the chair. Yes, coming to start my work in January 2026. So I'm here as a negotiator and I've been in this process for the last 20 years.
Fiona McRaith: [00:24:07] Wow, amazing. Well, again, thank you so much for taking time in the final days, hours of hopefully just hours, not days of negotiations to meet with us. We wanted to ask you just as our first question, you know, kind of where do things stand and where do you think we'll get to this evening?
Dr. Antwi-Boasiako Amoah: [00:24:25] Now, we had the first hearts or head of delegation consultation by the presidency. The temperature in the room was not good because parties were far apart. Yeah, the usual divide between developed and developing. There are some expectations that are not met by the developed countries. And then also most of the expectations of the developing countries were also not met. Yeah. And so the president was trying to actually see if we can actually get a balance, because in negotiation you cannot get everything. That's why it's negotiation. Mhm. But the way it is now, it looks like we are too far apart from each other and we need to come closer. What are the sticking issues. So one is about differentiation when it comes to means of implementation. The developed countries don't want to hear languages that say money or finance will flow from developed countries to developing countries or whatever, if it is mitigation, adaptation, whatever. They also think that some developed Country Party, especially EU, also thinks that the test is too weak on maybe roadmap to transition away from fossil fuel, because from their argument, we had a decision in.
Fiona McRaith: [00:25:47] Dubai.
Dr. Antwi-Boasiako Amoah: [00:25:48] In Dubai, and the expectation is that each cop should build on that decision, but not to water down that decision.
Fiona McRaith: [00:25:55] Yeah.
Dr. Antwi-Boasiako Amoah: [00:25:56] The developing countries are also saying that we came to this cop with understanding that this Cop is going to correct all the wrongs that have been done since Paris was adopted, because for ten years now, um, parties have not seen our developing country. Parties, in their view, have not seen any proper implementation when it comes to flow of finance support. In that case. So means of implementation, finance technology capacity flowing from developed to developing countries to be able to meet the ambition that we are all talking about. So for, for, for, for us, it's also, um, a missed target because we are we are hoping or we're hoping that there will be some kind of hope to leave Belgium with understanding that that security or guarantee will be there the way it is now. It is also not there. Yeah. The argument is that we are seeing more deaths in terms of financing, adaptation and other climate related interventions in developing countries, and that cannot continue. One of the sticky issues also from our side is the carbon budget, um, border adjustment. So the Cbam has become a critical issue and is gradually putting stress and pressure on developing countries. And we wanted a solution to that because we are in a multilateral process, not unilateral process. And so all unilateral measures must be done Within a week so that we can have processes that all of us, um, multilaterally, agree to move on with that.
Fiona McRaith: [00:27:37] Thank you again so much for your time. Thank you. We will let you get back to.
Paul Dickinson: [00:27:41] Wish you well with the negotiations and your new role.
Fiona McRaith: [00:27:43] Thank you so much. Thank you so, so much.
Dr. Antwi-Boasiako Amoah: [00:27:45] Thank you. It's a pleasure.
Fiona McRaith: [00:27:47] So we've just finished our chat. Um, we met right outside of the VIP room, and I think it's just so clear, you know, uh, how much work has been put into this, and, um. Paul, what did you make of it?
Paul Dickinson: [00:28:00] He's been a negotiator for 20 years. I mean, that's got to mean a lot. You know, he's pretty clear about the issues. And I guess, like every negotiator here, whether they're from some tiny island or whether they're from China, they're they're thinking about their nation and thinking about the globe and us getting to the right place as quickly as we can within all the contradictions that have held this text back. And our previous episode just dropped this morning, it's only 15 minutes, gives a good description of of why that text is underwhelming. And yet here we are pushing for more.
Fiona McRaith: [00:28:34] Yeah. You know, one of the things that struck me was a different perspective than what we heard from Teresa Ribera on Cbams. And I think, you know, one of the phrases he used was, um, this isn't a unilateral forum. And I think that's a little bit, you know, it's not on the EU to just do something like that that has real ramifications for our nations. And it just had me wondering the ways in which issues like that may be influencing some of the positions that different groups are taking on the text, and part of the reason why things are so tied up right now, and just the deep respect for negotiators. I loved his line as well about like, we're negotiators, that's what we do. We try to help find a shared solution of complex topics. And but that that resonated for me because we, of course, spoke with her earlier this week.
Paul Dickinson: [00:29:27] And if I heard him correctly, I didn't hear him say necessarily like the EU mustn't do cbam. What he said is we're here to negotiate, to ensure that no one country or group of countries hurts or damages unthinkingly another group of countries. So it's not like nothing can be done, but rather we're here to talk about how to make sure it works for everybody and isn't some kind of weird economic punishment. For example, where do the where do the the revenues from cbam go? Do they go back to the nation where the goods are charged for decarbonisation projects? I can see they're very legitimate wrinkles to be ironed out there.
Fiona McRaith: [00:30:04] Exactly. I mean, we're hearing that the EU countries have been calling their heads of state offices back home to see if they would be approved to veto or and push for a no deal because the fossil fuel roadmap is out of the text. I think sometimes it's very tempting to oversimplify why a group of countries might take a position. And I think what what's clear upon reflection, like it's never as simple as or it's rarely as simple as you want to make it.
Paul Dickinson: [00:30:38] That's not good.
Fiona McRaith: [00:30:39] What?
Paul Dickinson: [00:30:40] I was talking to somebody who is widely regarded as knowing what they're talking about at the coffee station, and they said, it's just they just had like a look in their eye I've not seen before. And they said either that like the the presidency is trying to push through this weak text because if they don't, there's going to be no agreement. And it looks like to really bad outcomes up ahead. And I was not expecting that bad news. It's about 715. And had we heard that there was going to be like it was going to be settled at ten or something.
Fiona McRaith: [00:31:16] Well, we got we got some messages that they, Australian and Turk were going to give a joint press conference or something like this to clarify some of the mechanisms they'll use to split the Cop 31 hosting and presidency. And one of the things that struck us as intriguing as we read.
Paul Dickinson: [00:31:40] Stuck you Sherlock Holmes.
Fiona McRaith: [00:31:41] Yeah. You know, as we read that, it said that it would come after the cop decision and but then they said around 10 p.m., which would be really surprising given the news we just got. Um.
Paul Dickinson: [00:31:56] But isn't it the case that there's not going to be like, people are going to go home today? So there has to happen today, I think.
Fiona McRaith: [00:32:01] Or you may recall and listeners may recall that a lot of delegates and, and country delegates are actually staying on cruise ships. And the cruise ships leave tomorrow at 8 a.m. if you are staying on the cruise ship, you have to be off of that ship because it's literally sailing away. It's not like a hotel room where you can get a late checkout, like you have to be back and packed up your room and that completely shifts.
Paul Dickinson: [00:32:26] So whatever happens has to happen tonight.
Fiona McRaith: [00:32:28] Yeah.
Paul Dickinson: [00:32:28] Wow. Wow. It's 8:00. We're in a minute. Gonna go and talk to someone who's an expert in Indonesia. What's happening right now?
Fiona McRaith: [00:32:46] Well, when we were back, what feels like quite a long time ago, but was actually only a matter of about seven hours when we were, um, sending out a number of messages to try and get a diverse array of voices and perspectives on what's happening. What are you feeling about the negotiations? Um, one of the folks I reached out to was my good friend Pooja, who has helped bring and coordinate a lot of the logistics for over 300 youth, and she put a blast out to her group, and we specifically asked for voices from the global majority. And this is one of the folks who was still here. And Indonesia is such an important country.
Paul Dickinson: [00:33:30] At least 280 million reasons. The fourth most populous country in the world.
Fiona McRaith: [00:33:34] Yeah, but Gio, who are about to go speak to hopefully will help us understand a little bit what he's been focused on in the negotiations and how he's thinking about today.
Paul Dickinson: [00:33:44] I think he's over there. Should we go over there now?
Fiona McRaith: [00:33:46] Yeah.
Giovanni Pradipta: [00:33:47] My name is Giovanni Pradipta. People call me Gio. I work in an organization from Global North, actually in an organization called Germanwatch. We are based in Bonn and Berlin. Yeah. And I'm usually doing policy advising on German and Indonesian civil society dialogue.
Paul Dickinson: [00:34:05] So can we jump in with the big question? It's Friday. It's let's just do a quick time check. It is now almost 8 p.m. on the last day of this cop.
Giovanni Pradipta: [00:34:15] Not the latest cop that I've ever been, but yeah.
Paul Dickinson: [00:34:19] Where are we? And what do you think is happening and what do you want to see?
Gustavo Pinheiro: [00:34:23] Well, uh, where are we? There was a very big. How do you call this ministerial? Yeah. Uh, that happened this afternoon. Of course, we know that because of the fire. Everything got delayed, but everything happens usually anyway, in the second week with what's so-called as shuttle diplomacy. Yeah. Right between.
Fiona McRaith: [00:34:44] Can you. Yeah. Break down shuttle diplomacy.
Giovanni Pradipta: [00:34:46] It's essentially when the presidency goes around to heads of delegation, heads of groups of negotiations. There are a lot of them right in this cup. And, uh, to ask them for cooperation for in a sense. And it's not the first time that this kind of thing happened. Of course, there's we are working in a consensus means everybody has to agree on something. And yeah, that makes things difficult. But that's also something that I like with cop process, right? It's not just voting and somebody gets left behind. But this is sometimes the only way, actually, for smaller countries to actually be heard in a small, in a bigger stage.
Fiona McRaith: [00:35:27] And what do you make of the state of negotiations right now? I think there's a big crowd right down the hallway waiting for news to talk through the four major issues.
Giovanni Pradipta: [00:35:35] I mean, I think if open information that some global North countries don't really like what happened there, but also global South. So everybody needs to talk. But on just transition work program itself, we have, let's say, the more optimistic in the sense because it's a after three years long process. At last we have a text that kind of pictures what a lot of civil society and a lot of people in global South wants, which is a just transition mechanism. A lot of NGOs have been calling it as action mechanism or bam.
Fiona McRaith: [00:36:13] Bam.
Giovanni Pradipta: [00:36:13] Yeah, it's a nice word for it, but there are some language stuff that we need to deal there. But all in all, we like that even the mechanism is mentioned off more oftentimes than not. Things that are taught by observers are just lost in the air. And this time we actually got something that represents a lot of what we want. I mean, I wish everybody here also, uh, successful cop, because this has been a very, very long and very, very tiring cop.
Fiona McRaith: [00:36:44] Yeah, yeah, yeah. I feel like we say that at the end of every cop, but this one, especially.
Paul Dickinson: [00:36:49] Thanks to you, I appreciate.
Fiona McRaith: [00:36:50] It. Thank you.
Giovanni Pradipta: [00:36:51] Thank you, thank.
Fiona McRaith: [00:36:51] You, thank.
Giovanni Pradipta: [00:36:52] You, thank you.
Fiona McRaith: [00:37:00] So, Paul, it's 953.
Paul Dickinson: [00:37:06] Seven minutes to ten.
Fiona McRaith: [00:37:09] You know, we've now heard from a number of really well informed folks that what what we had heard a few hours ago, is looking more and more likely, I think, at the time that we are now, and given the fact that delegations and we're going to start to lose, um, quorum. Quorum, it's looking extremely likely. Do you want to summarize what the basically two outcomes could be?
Paul Dickinson: [00:37:35] Yeah. It looks like the previous agreement, which was tabled by the presidency, uh, which many people would find disappointing. It will be adopted or there's a possibility that no agreement would be adopted, which would be pretty unprecedented. So, um, many people would be disappointed by either outcome. So it's just a, you know, kind of a heads up that this is now looking like a tough, uh, end to the cop. And we will get back to you as soon as we know what the outcome is.
Fiona McRaith: [00:38:05] Yeah. So signing off for now.
Paul Dickinson: [00:38:07] Thanks.
Fiona McRaith: [00:08:28] So going back to the fossil fuel roadmap, what specifics were in there or would we expect to see in there? And were some of those red lines, you know, to use some of the jargon, what in there might have been major sticking points.
Matt Webb: [00:08:40] So I think we need to just acknowledge two things. One is that Lula raised the bar and surprised a lot of people with his backing for the roadmap.
Fiona McRaith: [00:08:50] And sorry, was that at the very beginning of this?
Matt Webb: [00:08:53] This was in the leaders even before the cop started. He stood up and said, these are things I want to see. And I think, you know, parties were not expecting that. And it's, you know, that is that sort of rang the bell. It's like, okay, we're off. And then you've seen the second thing, which is you've seen an extraordinary coalition of global North and global South countries come forward and say, yes, we need to plot this pathway together. And that's extraordinary. Of course, it's meant that there hasn't been a huge amount of time to work out the the modalities, the way it's going to work, the pieces, the structures. And, you know, countries are working that through in these halls right now. The message I've taken from the way that the Brazilians have expressed this is this needs to be a constructive conversation where we look at the contradictions, look at the things that are difficult, but we create a space to work that through. It has to be mandated by the Paris Agreement and the structures, and it has to have a way of linking back to the structures in each year for the next 2 or 3 years to drive the negotiations forward. So let's hope we see that.
Fiona McRaith: [00:09:54] We know that cops are are two weeks and a load of pre-work and work that follows after. It's not just these two weeks, but this is kind of the moment when the world's media will refocus on this. But so much is happening outside. So what's the kind of signal or headline that you think businesses or other sectors in the world will need coming out of here, or how should they respond?
Matt Webb: [00:10:14] I guess so, I think against a backdrop of, you know, chaos, turbulence, you know, political change like we haven't seen leaders have come here, delegates have come here, and there has been a real spirit of energy, of looking forward. And so I think these negotiations have reflected the the facts on the ground, which are the clean energy revolution is moving at massive pace. And actually countries here are now looking for plans, pathways and real concrete steps to actually get to the benefits of the clean energy that's happening in the real world. So I think that's why this feels so energetic. But we've got to turn that into text and outcomes for the Paris Agreement in the next 24 hours.
Fiona McRaith: [00:10:58] Hello, Gustavo. Hey.
Gustavo Pinheiro: [00:11:00] Hey. How are you?
Fiona McRaith: [00:11:01] I'm doing all right. How are you?
Gustavo Pinheiro: [00:11:02] Good, good. How are you?
Fiona McRaith: [00:11:04] Good. You're feeling good.
Gustavo Pinheiro: [00:11:06] Well, we are in expectations of results. So, uh, it's a feeling of optimism and hope. Yeah. That cop 30 will deliver, uh, what everyone wants.
Fiona McRaith: [00:11:18] What are three top things that you're looking for to be delivered?
Gustavo Pinheiro: [00:11:21] Yeah. So, uh, I think the most, uh, urgent thing for us to deliver here is adaptation. Yes. Uh, just because communities are suffering from climate impacts everywhere. We saw many disasters just in these two weeks of, uh, throughout the world. So adaptation for me is priority number one.
Fiona McRaith: [00:11:39] I totally agree. Can you break down what's happening on adaptation right now?
Gustavo Pinheiro: [00:11:43] Yeah. So I think the two main things that we are pursuing, is adaptation finance. We got at least triple the adaptation finance available for developing and most vulnerable countries. We need much more than that. We need actually trillions and trillions for adaptation. But that would be a good beginning, I would say.
Fiona McRaith: [00:12:01] Yeah, a sign of solidarity, of trust.
Gustavo Pinheiro: [00:12:04] Yes. It could support, uh, the re-establishment of trust between the global North and global South.
Fiona McRaith: [00:12:10] Yeah. So that's one of the things on adaptation we would need. Are there others?
Gustavo Pinheiro: [00:12:14] Yes. We also need the indicators. Right. Because we cannot advance in an agenda that we don't track. It's like uh with emissions. It took us a lot of science, a lot of tracking, uh, for us to understand what is happening and how much we had to lower our emissions for adaptation. It's the same. We know we have to triple funding. At least we know we need much more than that. But we don't have the data today. We know there are impacts. We see the the results. We see the the climate extremes happening. Uh, but we don't have the data to actually develop the public policies that are needed to deliver it at scale.
Fiona McRaith: [00:12:55] Got it. What is another big area that you are focused on right now you're tracking?
Gustavo Pinheiro: [00:12:59] So, uh, the second area I think is key for us to develop here is still on the social side of things is the just transition work program, and that's key to unlock many other agendas, because that speaks to workers, that speaks to traditional peoples, that speaks to both urban and rural populations. It's something that, uh, can have an indirect impact on other agenda items, as well as to ensure for the developing world that nobody will be left behind.
Fiona McRaith: [00:13:27] Yeah. I mean, we often talk about the transition or the new economy rising without ever acknowledging the skills and the people that are going to bridge that gap. So I absolutely agree. The just transition cannot happen without people, without skills, without education. And what's the status on that in negotiations, but also broad more broadly in the world.
Gustavo Pinheiro: [00:13:47] Yeah. Well for, for for just transition. There's a lot of happening already. And as you saw that in the climate action agenda here. Yeah. But we have huge gaps. For instance, just in India we have more than 5 million workers in coal mines.
Fiona McRaith: [00:14:00] Wow.
Gustavo Pinheiro: [00:14:01] What are we going to do with these people? We need to offer them alternatives. Uh, so it's in a certain way understandable when countries kind of block negotiations or delay it because they, they see that their most of their population might be being left behind in the developing world. Uh, so it's key for us to, to address it in a very strong way, uh, to have a, an action mechanism come out of Berlin that can actually deliver, uh, the pathways for transitioning, uh, in a very equitable just way, so that the population and the workers and traditional peoples that are from the global South, especially, uh, do have pathways to, uh, Opportunities and don't suffer just with the costs of transition.
Fiona McRaith: [00:14:47] Gustavo, thank you so much for breaking down two really big issues that are often kind of just headlines and really helping us understand what we're looking for, what's important and why it is. Thank you.
Paul Dickinson: [00:14:58] Okay. So in the in this day when we don't really know what's going on, Matt seemed to confirm professionally and with expert opinion that we didn't know what was going on. So it's good to have that confirmed. What about Gustavo?
Fiona McRaith: [00:15:10] Gustavo brought in such a clear breakdown of two issues that are really, really important here at the cop adaptation and just transition. They are perennial issues and really just huge kudos to him for having such such insight.
Paul Dickinson: [00:15:24] I mean, it's good that we actually have a country head in Brazil who's like an expert in this area and runs their own think tank and stuff. So, you know, kudos 3G always ahead of the game. Okay. Good news. We have a meeting with the Minister of the Environment of Colombia, and I believe she and Colombia have been leading on both fossil fuels and deforestation. All right.
Fiona McRaith: [00:15:47] Yeah, that's exactly right, in fact. And we heard this in our conversation with 3G. They just announced today that they would host co-host with the Netherlands, the first international conference for the phase out of fossil fuels in Santa Marta, Colombia, in April. Huge thanks to our colleague Renee for helping us get this meeting. I mean, like the fact that we're able to speak with her and Colombia is leading on some of the most important parts of the negotiation that have dropped out of the text. I mean, it's really quite shocking. I think we should probably get going, though. Producers. Is that okay?
Paul Dickinson: [00:16:18] She is the person of the moment. Let's go. Minister Irene Velez Torres. Thank you so much for joining us on Inside Cop. This is maybe 5 p.m. on the Friday afternoon critical time. I'd like to ask you, first of all, if we may, how you are seeing the negotiations, what you're wanting and what you're expecting.
Irene Velez Torres: [00:16:37] I think we have or we are very close to reaching a dead point. Why is it that I think it is, at least partially because there has been a difficulty to incorporate in the texts things that are absolutely crucial for countries like Colombia, like Iraq, like the European Union. We have been insisting since the pre-cop and in the different spaces of conversation, also in the mutual decision that we need to see a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels, a roadmap to protect nature and forests, and we need to also see concrete delivery of finance. Those three items have been completely erased from the text, but also from discussion. I am very much amazed of the way it has been dealt with, because apparently there is like a half and a and half. Division in the room, half supporting the roadmap to phase out fossil fuels. Half. Opposing the roadmap. But all from the sudden the presidency opted to just back. Those who are in favor of protecting the fossil fuels, industries and interests. So we, the most ambitious and the ones that have contributed the least to the climate change and that need a lot more support in terms of finance access, preserving our forests have been left behind.
Paul Dickinson: [00:18:17] You are leading on protecting forests and you've also been leading on fossil fuel phase out roadmap. Can you explain why you bring that leadership and what you're going to do now?
Irene Velez Torres: [00:18:29] Well, science has already said that if you don't take the right decisions at this moment, next year is going to be too late. We have been waiting years and decades for this conference to take the right decisions. It's been ten years since the Paris Agreement, and we know there is a huge gap between the NDCs and the achievement of the goal, 1.5 degrees. So we know that action has to be taken now. What are those actions? I think it will be denialism to actually try to only focus on adaptation if we are forgetting what is the source of contamination. 80% of the global warming emissions are coming from fossil fuels. So from the Colombian government, what we are saying is we won't we won't agree with a text that is not dealing with the root cause of the climate change problem, and that is we won't agree with the text. That doesn't include a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels and a roadmap to protect the most important value to actually compensate for climate change, which is forest.
Fiona McRaith: [00:19:54] Minister, we know that in Dubai, the the government's already agreed to phasing out fossil fuels, and we know that there's already been agreement to halt and reverse deforestation. So why have they fallen out of the agreement here? Why are these roadmaps not on. I mean, you say there's kind of half and half. There's increasing countries signing on to the roadmap. Just yesterday, some major ones, including Australia signed on. So why can you help us understand. But also our listeners understand why would these have dropped.
Irene Velez Torres: [00:20:24] Yes, we already said it in Dubai. But what we said there was like a general announcement. So that's easy. Well, sometimes it's not that easy, but that's easier.
Fiona McRaith: [00:20:35] It's not specific.
Irene Velez Torres: [00:20:36] Yeah, it's not as specific as soon as you ask them. Okay. From the announcement to reality to action. What are you doing? Then everyone steps back. That's one side of the explanation. But something else that is happening is the effect of the US having stepped out from the Paris Agreement again. Yeah. Why is that? Well, because he that countries is still the most important polluter. Yeah. So if the most important polluter is not here taking responsibility and actually helping constructing alternatives and making concrete goals to achieve a climate justice, then all the other countries feel very much relaxed. Yes. And they don't feel they have to commit to anything because the most important polluter is not doing anything. So I think it's also like a yeah, a consequence of an absence that is actually not very much discussed in the rooms. But I think it's a it's an outcome of the absence of the US in these negotiations.
Fiona McRaith: [00:21:50] So, Paul, one of the things that I've been thinking about since our chat just a few minutes ago with the Colombian minister, was her hypothesis about why the negotiations or why this draft text is so bare or so different lost the fossil fuel language, lost deforestation language. And one of the things she said is that the US isn't here. And everyone, the 194 countries that are here kind of know that the US isn't going to adhere to any of the fossil fuel roadmap stuff. You know, it just got me thinking about. Trump announced potential plans to open the coast of California and the coast of Florida to drilling. And again, those are potential plans. And it just, you know, such a master of the distract the convenient like headline to kind of send signals that these things aren't important. And I was just wondering, like the extent to which her hypothesis is totally true. What do you make of.
Paul Dickinson: [00:22:48] I'm sure she's right that you know that countries think they can be kind of, like, more lazy. I mean, I have to tell you that under Biden or Obama or whatever, I think countries felt that they had to rise to the occasion. We're on our way to meet now, doctor Anthony Bosanko Amara, who's a Ghanian negotiator and the incoming head of the African group of negotiators. So that's a pretty important person around here. But I think what we can try and maybe cover in this conversation is about Ghana and and more broadly, all the nations of Africa where a billion people live, you know, adaptation is nontrivial. Like, sorry, I'm going to use the phrase millions of people dying from climate impacts.
Fiona McRaith: [00:23:26] Yeah, absolutely. I'm really so, so grateful to have this opportunity to chat and grateful to my friend Josh, who helped put us in contact.
Dr. Antwi-Boasiako Amoah: [00:23:36] My name is Doctor Amoah. I have a very typical Ghanaian name. I don't have any English name, interestingly, so I'm a director in charge of climate change in Ghana and I'm the lead negotiator for Ghana's delegation. And just about two weeks ago, I've been elected as the chair. Yes, coming to start my work in January 2026. So I'm here as a negotiator and I've been in this process for the last 20 years.
Fiona McRaith: [00:24:07] Wow, amazing. Well, again, thank you so much for taking time in the final days, hours of hopefully just hours, not days of negotiations to meet with us. We wanted to ask you just as our first question, you know, kind of where do things stand and where do you think we'll get to this evening?
Dr. Antwi-Boasiako Amoah: [00:24:25] Now, we had the first hearts or head of delegation consultation by the presidency. The temperature in the room was not good because parties were far apart. Yeah, the usual divide between developed and developing. There are some expectations that are not met by the developed countries. And then also most of the expectations of the developing countries were also not met. Yeah. And so the president was trying to actually see if we can actually get a balance, because in negotiation you cannot get everything. That's why it's negotiation. Mhm. But the way it is now, it looks like we are too far apart from each other and we need to come closer. What are the sticking issues. So one is about differentiation when it comes to means of implementation. The developed countries don't want to hear languages that say money or finance will flow from developed countries to developing countries or whatever, if it is mitigation, adaptation, whatever. They also think that some developed Country Party, especially EU, also thinks that the test is too weak on maybe roadmap to transition away from fossil fuel, because from their argument, we had a decision in.
Fiona McRaith: [00:25:47] Dubai.
Dr. Antwi-Boasiako Amoah: [00:25:48] In Dubai, and the expectation is that each cop should build on that decision, but not to water down that decision.
Fiona McRaith: [00:25:55] Yeah.
Dr. Antwi-Boasiako Amoah: [00:25:56] The developing countries are also saying that we came to this cop with understanding that this Cop is going to correct all the wrongs that have been done since Paris was adopted, because for ten years now, um, parties have not seen our developing country. Parties, in their view, have not seen any proper implementation when it comes to flow of finance support. In that case. So means of implementation, finance technology capacity flowing from developed to developing countries to be able to meet the ambition that we are all talking about. So for, for, for, for us, it's also, um, a missed target because we are we are hoping or we're hoping that there will be some kind of hope to leave Belgium with understanding that that security or guarantee will be there the way it is now. It is also not there. Yeah. The argument is that we are seeing more deaths in terms of financing, adaptation and other climate related interventions in developing countries, and that cannot continue. One of the sticky issues also from our side is the carbon budget, um, border adjustment. So the Cbam has become a critical issue and is gradually putting stress and pressure on developing countries. And we wanted a solution to that because we are in a multilateral process, not unilateral process. And so all unilateral measures must be done Within a week so that we can have processes that all of us, um, multilaterally, agree to move on with that.
Fiona McRaith: [00:27:37] Thank you again so much for your time. Thank you. We will let you get back to.
Paul Dickinson: [00:27:41] Wish you well with the negotiations and your new role.
Fiona McRaith: [00:27:43] Thank you so much. Thank you so, so much.
Dr. Antwi-Boasiako Amoah: [00:27:45] Thank you. It's a pleasure.
Fiona McRaith: [00:27:47] So we've just finished our chat. Um, we met right outside of the VIP room, and I think it's just so clear, you know, uh, how much work has been put into this, and, um. Paul, what did you make of it?
Paul Dickinson: [00:28:00] He's been a negotiator for 20 years. I mean, that's got to mean a lot. You know, he's pretty clear about the issues. And I guess, like every negotiator here, whether they're from some tiny island or whether they're from China, they're they're thinking about their nation and thinking about the globe and us getting to the right place as quickly as we can within all the contradictions that have held this text back. And our previous episode just dropped this morning, it's only 15 minutes, gives a good description of of why that text is underwhelming. And yet here we are pushing for more.
Fiona McRaith: [00:28:34] Yeah. You know, one of the things that struck me was a different perspective than what we heard from Teresa Ribera on Cbams. And I think, you know, one of the phrases he used was, um, this isn't a unilateral forum. And I think that's a little bit, you know, it's not on the EU to just do something like that that has real ramifications for our nations. And it just had me wondering the ways in which issues like that may be influencing some of the positions that different groups are taking on the text, and part of the reason why things are so tied up right now, and just the deep respect for negotiators. I loved his line as well about like, we're negotiators, that's what we do. We try to help find a shared solution of complex topics. And but that that resonated for me because we, of course, spoke with her earlier this week.
Paul Dickinson: [00:29:27] And if I heard him correctly, I didn't hear him say necessarily like the EU mustn't do cbam. What he said is we're here to negotiate, to ensure that no one country or group of countries hurts or damages unthinkingly another group of countries. So it's not like nothing can be done, but rather we're here to talk about how to make sure it works for everybody and isn't some kind of weird economic punishment. For example, where do the where do the the revenues from cbam go? Do they go back to the nation where the goods are charged for decarbonisation projects? I can see they're very legitimate wrinkles to be ironed out there.
Fiona McRaith: [00:30:04] Exactly. I mean, we're hearing that the EU countries have been calling their heads of state offices back home to see if they would be approved to veto or and push for a no deal because the fossil fuel roadmap is out of the text. I think sometimes it's very tempting to oversimplify why a group of countries might take a position. And I think what what's clear upon reflection, like it's never as simple as or it's rarely as simple as you want to make it.
Paul Dickinson: [00:30:38] That's not good.
Fiona McRaith: [00:30:39] What?
Paul Dickinson: [00:30:40] I was talking to somebody who is widely regarded as knowing what they're talking about at the coffee station, and they said, it's just they just had like a look in their eye I've not seen before. And they said either that like the the presidency is trying to push through this weak text because if they don't, there's going to be no agreement. And it looks like to really bad outcomes up ahead. And I was not expecting that bad news. It's about 715. And had we heard that there was going to be like it was going to be settled at ten or something.
Fiona McRaith: [00:31:16] Well, we got we got some messages that they, Australian and Turk were going to give a joint press conference or something like this to clarify some of the mechanisms they'll use to split the Cop 31 hosting and presidency. And one of the things that struck us as intriguing as we read.
Paul Dickinson: [00:31:40] Stuck you Sherlock Holmes.
Fiona McRaith: [00:31:41] Yeah. You know, as we read that, it said that it would come after the cop decision and but then they said around 10 p.m., which would be really surprising given the news we just got. Um.
Paul Dickinson: [00:31:56] But isn't it the case that there's not going to be like, people are going to go home today? So there has to happen today, I think.
Fiona McRaith: [00:32:01] Or you may recall and listeners may recall that a lot of delegates and, and country delegates are actually staying on cruise ships. And the cruise ships leave tomorrow at 8 a.m. if you are staying on the cruise ship, you have to be off of that ship because it's literally sailing away. It's not like a hotel room where you can get a late checkout, like you have to be back and packed up your room and that completely shifts.
Paul Dickinson: [00:32:26] So whatever happens has to happen tonight.
Fiona McRaith: [00:32:28] Yeah.
Paul Dickinson: [00:32:28] Wow. Wow. It's 8:00. We're in a minute. Gonna go and talk to someone who's an expert in Indonesia. What's happening right now?
Fiona McRaith: [00:32:46] Well, when we were back, what feels like quite a long time ago, but was actually only a matter of about seven hours when we were, um, sending out a number of messages to try and get a diverse array of voices and perspectives on what's happening. What are you feeling about the negotiations? Um, one of the folks I reached out to was my good friend Pooja, who has helped bring and coordinate a lot of the logistics for over 300 youth, and she put a blast out to her group, and we specifically asked for voices from the global majority. And this is one of the folks who was still here. And Indonesia is such an important country.
Paul Dickinson: [00:33:30] At least 280 million reasons. The fourth most populous country in the world.
Fiona McRaith: [00:33:34] Yeah, but Gio, who are about to go speak to hopefully will help us understand a little bit what he's been focused on in the negotiations and how he's thinking about today.
Paul Dickinson: [00:33:44] I think he's over there. Should we go over there now?
Fiona McRaith: [00:33:46] Yeah.
Giovanni Pradipta: [00:33:47] My name is Giovanni Pradipta. People call me Gio. I work in an organization from Global North, actually in an organization called Germanwatch. We are based in Bonn and Berlin. Yeah. And I'm usually doing policy advising on German and Indonesian civil society dialogue.
Paul Dickinson: [00:34:05] So can we jump in with the big question? It's Friday. It's let's just do a quick time check. It is now almost 8 p.m. on the last day of this cop.
Giovanni Pradipta: [00:34:15] Not the latest cop that I've ever been, but yeah.
Paul Dickinson: [00:34:19] Where are we? And what do you think is happening and what do you want to see?
Gustavo Pinheiro: [00:34:23] Well, uh, where are we? There was a very big. How do you call this ministerial? Yeah. Uh, that happened this afternoon. Of course, we know that because of the fire. Everything got delayed, but everything happens usually anyway, in the second week with what's so-called as shuttle diplomacy. Yeah. Right between.
Fiona McRaith: [00:34:44] Can you. Yeah. Break down shuttle diplomacy.
Giovanni Pradipta: [00:34:46] It's essentially when the presidency goes around to heads of delegation, heads of groups of negotiations. There are a lot of them right in this cup. And, uh, to ask them for cooperation for in a sense. And it's not the first time that this kind of thing happened. Of course, there's we are working in a consensus means everybody has to agree on something. And yeah, that makes things difficult. But that's also something that I like with cop process, right? It's not just voting and somebody gets left behind. But this is sometimes the only way, actually, for smaller countries to actually be heard in a small, in a bigger stage.
Fiona McRaith: [00:35:27] And what do you make of the state of negotiations right now? I think there's a big crowd right down the hallway waiting for news to talk through the four major issues.
Giovanni Pradipta: [00:35:35] I mean, I think if open information that some global North countries don't really like what happened there, but also global South. So everybody needs to talk. But on just transition work program itself, we have, let's say, the more optimistic in the sense because it's a after three years long process. At last we have a text that kind of pictures what a lot of civil society and a lot of people in global South wants, which is a just transition mechanism. A lot of NGOs have been calling it as action mechanism or bam.
Fiona McRaith: [00:36:13] Bam.
Giovanni Pradipta: [00:36:13] Yeah, it's a nice word for it, but there are some language stuff that we need to deal there. But all in all, we like that even the mechanism is mentioned off more oftentimes than not. Things that are taught by observers are just lost in the air. And this time we actually got something that represents a lot of what we want. I mean, I wish everybody here also, uh, successful cop, because this has been a very, very long and very, very tiring cop.
Fiona McRaith: [00:36:44] Yeah, yeah, yeah. I feel like we say that at the end of every cop, but this one, especially.
Paul Dickinson: [00:36:49] Thanks to you, I appreciate.
Fiona McRaith: [00:36:50] It. Thank you.
Giovanni Pradipta: [00:36:51] Thank you, thank.
Fiona McRaith: [00:36:51] You, thank.
Giovanni Pradipta: [00:36:52] You, thank you.
Fiona McRaith: [00:37:00] So, Paul, it's 953.
Paul Dickinson: [00:37:06] Seven minutes to ten.
Fiona McRaith: [00:37:09] You know, we've now heard from a number of really well informed folks that what what we had heard a few hours ago, is looking more and more likely, I think, at the time that we are now, and given the fact that delegations and we're going to start to lose, um, quorum. Quorum, it's looking extremely likely. Do you want to summarize what the basically two outcomes could be?
Paul Dickinson: [00:37:35] Yeah. It looks like the previous agreement, which was tabled by the presidency, uh, which many people would find disappointing. It will be adopted or there's a possibility that no agreement would be adopted, which would be pretty unprecedented. So, um, many people would be disappointed by either outcome. So it's just a, you know, kind of a heads up that this is now looking like a tough, uh, end to the cop. And we will get back to you as soon as we know what the outcome is.
Fiona McRaith: [00:38:05] Yeah. So signing off for now.
Paul Dickinson: [00:38:07] Thanks.
