338: Inside COP: The Final Hours of COP30 - and the road ahead

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Christiana Figueres: Well, I'm going to go out on a limb here, because if I think forward when the dust settles, and when everyone has finally gotten some sleep, and when emotions begin to calm down, I think the question that is going to be on everybody's mind, both they who were there, plus many people who weren't there, was, was this a radical success or a dramatic failure? And the fact is, it was neither of the two. And we've been saying this for quite a while, that this is not a binary situation in which you can either identify a success or a failure. This is somewhere in between. Now, despite these very intense procedural arguments that we have noted for you in the last few hours, the gavel did go down. And I was quite moved that the countries decided to support multilateralism. That's what they did. They put the value of multilateralism above their country interests and above all the topics that they have been negotiating. And I thought that was a very meaningful and moving moment. Because I think there was a bell of mindfulness, if I can say it that way, that multilateralism has been having hits this year. Plastics Treaty, IMO. And that it is ultimately the only process for federal governments to come together and decide things together. And so to put country interests aside and support multilateralism, I thought was a very important moment. Now, going into the content of what we finally have. Listeners will remember that we've been saying right from the start that we have actually at this COP as a whole, in addition to the political agreement here that was gaveled. We have two buckets, and we're going to talk to you about these two buckets, because they actually were both on display and both interacting with each other. And I would argue that there was progress in both buckets, both in the economic reality, but also in the political reality. Now, I would also immediately say much more progress in the economic reality than in the political reality, but even the political reality. As I say, when the dust settles, I think you can find things in that well-disputed text that are meaningful. I think the text, as it stands, achieved important markers that send out two political signals. The first is there is no retreat from previous COPs. Sometimes these texts that come out from COPs go back to renegotiate and go back to the process, the ongoing process of constant step forward of each COP. I would say that in general, this text holds the baseline of previous COPs, and it does so in several important ways. One is, it recognizes science as the basis for all of these negotiations. And in a world of fake news and false information, the clear support for the IPCC and for the guidance of science, I thought was very important. Secondly, the 1.5 degree temperature ceiling was reiterated. In a world in which there's so much discussion about we are now overshooting, we cannot do this. This text reiterates the need. Yes, it says we may overshoot, but it reiterates the need for the 1.5. And the third baseline that it is holding is the full implementation of the nationally determined contributions. Also, because so many countries have been saying, well, you know, we can't really do our NDCs and da, da, da, da, da. And they came forward and they said, no, no, no, no, no. We have to continue doing the NDCs and we have to strive here for full implementation of the NDCs. So at least those three topics, I think, are important because they represent holding the baseline of the previous COPs that we've had since the Paris Agreement up until now. Then there's a second category, a second signal, if you will, that was given out, which is, can we also look forward toward greater progress after Balaam? And I would argue that if you really look into the text, you can find progress after Balaam. For one thing, a tripling of finance for adaptation, something very requested by developing countries, big step forward that it was tripled. Yes, five years later than they wanted, but tripling adaptation finance, big win. Secondly, they decided to develop something they call the Just Transition Mechanism because so many countries have been arguing, look, the transition, we get it, there has to be a transition, but it has to be just. And then the most fascinating for me was how the COP presidency dealt with the famous roadmaps that were requested by a more than 80 country, a roadmap on transitioning away from fossil fuels and a roadmap on deforestation. And as we know, those disappeared in the text that was put on the table yesterday morning. And most developing countries were furious about that, absolutely furious. So the way that the presidency dealt with that is twofold. With creative ambiguity, they inserted something called the Global Implementation Accelerator. Now, well, what does that mean? We don't know, but it is one way of restating the need for the roadmaps. And it is now actually a package of processes or roadmaps because it's now a two year process led by the presidencies to both close the gap to the 1.5 and have a process on transitioning away from fossil fields and halt deforestation. So they put all of that into this Global Implementation Accelerator. It will soon be called the GIA. I am sure it's going to be called, so you heard it here first. New acronym, new acronym coming in, GIA, G-I-A, we'll appreciate it.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: You need another A, then it can be Gaia.

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Christiana Figueres: Yeah, yeah, yeah, that would be even better. So that was one way that they dealt with it. The other way, he did mention that he is going to release not as a negotiated text, but as he's under his own responsibility, not negotiated, not agreed to, and he's entitled to do that. Something that at least when he announced it, he was calling it the Belem Transition Compass. I think what he's going to do there is he's going to announce the creation under his own responsibility of the two roadmaps that developing countries wanted. One for transitioning away from fossil fuels, which was supported by more than 80 countries, and the other one, halting and reversing deforestation supported by more than 90 countries. So I think those two, inserting a new acronym into the negotiated text, and then under his own responsibility, putting out something that speaks to what developing countries need. Now, amen, way too long. But before I turn over to you, Tom, I think it's also important to remember that that political bucket that I've just described in itself is divided into two realms. The international, which I've just described, which is basically what was possible to say at the international level and commit to at the international level. But then there is the domestic political bucket, which in many cases is quite different from what is being said at the international level. What is being done domestically is quite different. And listeners will remember the conversations we had with representatives from China and India as prime examples of the fact that these two countries, who didn't want many of these ambitious elements in the text at the international level, actually at the domestic level, they're pushing forward more than anyone else. So, Eamon, sorry, way too long, but difficult to...

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: No, it's fascinating...

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Christiana Figueres: . difficult to summarize. But, Tom, you and Paul were following much more the economic reality, which was also on display at the COP, and where I think we know that there is much progress. So, how did that bucket do?

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: Well, we'll definitely turn to that. And I like the concept that we've been following reality, although, you know, reality was in evidence in lots of different places.

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Paul Dickinson: It's quite hard around here, but we have.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: Thank you for that overview, and thank you also for explaining. I have to say that the Global Implementation Accelerator is one of those hooks in the text that you look at and think, hmm, there's a whole backstory here about where this came from, what it's going to turn into, what someone's plan is for it. And because I'm looking at this and I'm not actually inside the rooms where they're coming up with the strategy as to what this means, I don't know what all those plans are. But I think you've just peeked in a little bit into the integration of the global implementation agenda. Accelerator. The global implementation accelerator and the roadmaps and how those might come together.

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Christiana Figueres: Let's just call it. Okay, let's just call it. It's going to be the GIA.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: The GIA.

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Paul Dickinson: Paul. Just one thing, Christiana, you talked about holding the line, holding the baseline. This extraordinary USA pushback. What a difference a year makes from President Biden with the Inflation Reduction Act through to the Flat Earth speech that Trump gave at the UN. And well, if I might quote you, Christiana, the BBC quoted you say of the USA, if they don't want to be part of the electrotech revolution, God bless them, it's their loss. So yeah, good on. We'll welcome you back at some point USA, but there you are not there. But my point being with all of that negativity, holding the line. That's good.

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Christiana Figueres: Yeah.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: So to that, I wonder if we should then turn to the point that you made, Christiana, about the way in which reality has kind of unfold and been made visible for us at the COP as well.

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Christiana Figueres: The economic reality.

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Paul Dickinson: Some big numbers being thrown around there, right?

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Christiana Figueres: Yeah.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: On the first day I arrived, I started a couple of pages in my document, in my notebook that I carry around with me, and I reopened it when I got back, and I titled it The Story I Wish They Would Tell. And I filled it with everything that I learned in the week and a bit that I was there in COP. Some of the data and some of the analysis were announcements that came out of the COP itself, and some were just this moment of reflection back to the world, of the progress that we have made, and how far we've come in this economic transition. So with your permission, I will tell you the story that I wish they would tell, and it has four parts to it. So should we kick off in that direction?

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Paul Dickinson: We're Inside COP. This is the story that we want to tell. This is the moment. You're on, Tom. You're on.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: All right. So the first story that I wish they would tell and that we are telling is that the economics have tipped decisively. We are now in a completely different world. Let me give you some data points. And these are things I learned when we were in the COP last week. Solar costs fell 12% last year. That is an astonishing number. Battery storage costs have dropped 93% since 2010. And here's a really big one. 94% of all renewable power installed last year was cheaper than the cheapest fossil fuel alternative. And the consequences of that are everywhere. For example, Spain's industry used to pay one third more for electricity than Europe's average. After a massive build out of solar and wind, it now pays 20% less. Pakistan has installed 20 times more solar in the last three years than Canada, France, New Zealand and the UK combined. When we think that this is a global north story rather than a global story, we should think about these statistics. Another one, Uruguay now gets 98% of its electricity from renewables. That has halved cost and created 50,000 jobs. And it's now exporting clean energy. And in California, batteries and a cleaner grid have made the rolling blackouts that we used to see all the time have basically disappeared. And the state hasn't issued emergency alerts for the last four years. This shift has made clean energy cheaper. Momentum has become self-reinforcing. The capital comes first and the policy catches up later. But I think we can call it that shift has decisively happened. Okay, that's the first story.

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Christiana Figueres: The intersection between the political reality and the economic reality. If we had had an even stronger political signal from the political part of the COP, everything that you have said would likely accelerate more, because accelerate is now the word that we're going to use over and over again. But the fact that the political signal is okay, it's there, but it's not a huge political signal, doesn't stop anything that you've talked about.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: Totally, absolutely. And in fact, these things are unfolding at pace, at a national level, because it's in an economic interest. Okay, the second thing that blew my mind at COP, that is the story I wish they would tell and that we are telling, is that, yes, okay, I've talked about how the costs have come down, that's kind of theoretical and you see it in one way, but is it really happening on the ground? Actually, yes. The second point is that deployment of these technologies is accelerating at a pace that nobody has forecast. The IEA, who we know, always underestimates the transition, expects renewable electricity generation to rise 60% by 2030. And here's just a few things I learned while we were at the COP. India's renewables have supplied more than half national electricity demand multiple times this year. The solar mini-grids in places like Cameroon and Zambia are now bringing power to 30,000 rural homes and businesses. In Norway, 99% of new cars sold are now electric. And globally, road transportation electrification is already displacing 2 million barrels of oil every day, equivalent to Germany's entire daily oil consumption. Now that is an amazing statistic because I know as the son of an oil man that if you destroy demand just a little bit below supply, it's not long till you get a price collapse. These things are quite finely balanced and that deployment is now reaching a point where it is completely transformative in world markets.

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Paul Dickinson: Time to get an oil person into the White House. That's the only way to try and defend against this. What's your third one?

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: The third one is that COP30 has showed a massive shift from pledges to mobilization and implementation. I know we've talked about this being the COP of implementation, but I genuinely think this is the first time we've really gathered and said, this is not about what are we going to do, but it's about how are we really going to make it happen. And I think, you know, and that's not easy. And some of the challenges that we've talked about today have represented that. But there's been some big numbers that have come out of this COP. Nine and a half billion pledge for forests, including nearly seven billion for the TFFF, that's up from five and a half when we talked before, and two and a half billion for the Forest Climate Leadership Partnership. One and a half to secure, one point eight billion to secure land rights for indigenous people. Fifteen governments came together to launch a global land tenure commitment, covering an area the size of Mongolia, which is massive for those of you who don't have an image of that in your head. There was nearly 600 million for methane reduction, that's incredibly important for short-term warming. Eighty-two billion committed every year for grids and storage, that's how we're going to make this renewable system of the future work. Three hundred million for climate resilient health systems, this was a great announcement by different philanthropies. Twenty billion catalyzed for ocean protection and sustainable economies, and this granary of solutions that have been pulled together has now had a six-fold increase over last year, and has 700 case studies and a huge number of solution banks. This is all leading to real change. In the Brazilian Amazon deforestation fell 11% just this year, and globally deforestation is down 20% over the last decade, compared to the previous one. And the final one.

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Christiana Figueres: Yeah, you have still more. Okay, go.

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Paul Dickinson: There's more.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: Still more. Yeah, one more. There's one more, which is very short. And this is a very short one, which is emissions just based on NDCs, which are, as we know, we're gonna overachieve them, show that emissions will drop by 12% in the next 10 years. I know it's not enough, and I know that's not yet getting us to the halving emissions in the decisive decade, but we are entering a completely different period of human history, in which we are managing the decline of fossil fuels. That changes the economics, it changes the investment trajectory, and as we've said so many times, things take longer than you thought they could ever take, and then they change faster than you could have imagined. And even on the most conservative estimates, we are now over the peak and coming down the other side. And as we start racing ourselves down the other side of the peak, anything is possible, and I don't doubt for a second that we will go far faster than anyone would have imagined. So those are the four parts of the story I wish that they would tell from COP, and we've now told it.

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Christiana Figueres: Yeah, I know, it's also so true. It is a little bit sad that all of that, which we've been putting out for a while now, thanks to our colleagues, that that is not the story.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: It's not the story, that is the story.

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Christiana Figueres: That is so un-understandable to me, how something that is as exciting as what you've just... And that's a short list, Tom, because we could all add to that list, right?

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Paul Dickinson: It's a big world, big list, yeah.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: You can be grateful that I trimmed it for the purposes.

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Christiana Figueres: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Ben would kill us if we do the full list. But it is... I have yet to understand why we're not racing toward this new world with enthusiasm. And with vigor, and with excitement. Because it is a completely different way of thinking, doing, acting, everything. And the imperatives, the benefits are just so many, mutually reinforcing. So the fact that we're so stuck in the stories of the past, still our boots, our eyes can raise to the horizon and see this. But our boots are really, really stuck in the way we've been thinking and acting and doing for hundreds of years. And I don't know, sometimes I just really want to chop our boots off.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: Grab everyone and shake them.

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Paul Dickinson: Well, maybe now's the time. You know, there's a famous phrase, which I love, which is, authority is taken, not given. So the facts are with us. And I hope everyone listening to this will be buoyed, be empowered, will be enabled by this to move forward and tell the story, the important story, the good story about the fact that it can be done. It is being done.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: So just one final thought I wanted to add is that, this is sort of the end of our Inside COP series. I think just on the note we've left here, I think that we have inevitably wanted to and had to tell the story of the COP as it's unfolded, both the two parts that you explained at the beginning, Christiana, that needed to be so well balanced. But I just really hope that journalists and others, and if there's anything we've gained out of this, is that we have moved a little bit into more of a balanced storytelling, which we have tried to represent here between the economics and the politics. Because most of what you hear in the news is the politics, and it's really depressing sometimes and it's hard, but it's only half the story, you're only being told half the story.

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Christiana Figueres: It's only half the story.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: So we've got to dash off now, but just before we do, one other final point that we should make is around COP31. Of course, no ambiguity where COP32 will be, that will be in Ethiopia, but COP31 remains in this slightly ambiguous split between Australia and Turkey. It will be hosted in Turkey, no ambiguity there. The COP president, I understand, will be from Turkey as well, and appointed by the Turkish government, but the Australian climate minister will be president of the negotiations. So there is a little ambiguity around how that works. Did you know that, Christiana?

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Christiana Figueres: Yeah. I mean, how can you have a COP president distinct from president of the negotiations?

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: Well, we're going to find out next year in Antalya.

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Christiana Figueres: Okay. Stay tuned.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: Okay.

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Paul Dickinson: Stay tuned. I read this one thing where it says that in the event of an agreement, they will discuss it until it's resolved satisfactorily.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: Okay. Yes. So, I mean, I do think that there are still some issues to be resolved there, but we did come out with a conclusion that will have... It doesn't revert to Bonn, so there was a decision made in the end in a compromise reach. And Christiana, you were saying before we recorded that you thought the Pacific Islanders actually in the end, of course, who will host the pre-COP, may have done rather well out of this arrangement.

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Christiana Figueres: I think so too, because A, they will host the pre-COP, plus, there is already an agreement to support them in many different ways in their decarbonisation and in their adaptation. So, that is not even up to all countries to agree to that it has already been offered to them, so.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: Okay, so that wraps us up. Before we go, just some thank yous that we really want to share before we finish this little mini-series.

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Christiana Figueres: First of all, we should thank Fiona, who's not usually a co-host, and was willing to be with us the whole two weeks of the COP, the only one of the three of us who was there the whole two weeks, plus a week before, so thank you, thank you, thank you.

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Paul Dickinson: Completely brilliant human who's been teaching me an awful lot about a lot of things.

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Christiana Figueres: Yeah, so, so fantastic. And then, obviously, the Persephonica team on the ground, Ben and Caitlin, thank you so much, and remotely, Ellie, who has been our godmother remotely.

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Paul Dickinson: Miles, our editor in Australia, who's been working the 24-hour magic. Thank you, Miles.

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Christiana Figueres: Yeah, so good to have somebody in a different time zone. Thank you for that.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: Yeah, absolutely. And can I just add in Thais Bilenki, who has been our Brazilian journalist friend and colleague, who has steered us right on how things are being seen in Brazil.

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Christiana Figueres: And then, of course, all the guests who were willing to take time and thought to share with all of you listeners.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: Lindsay Levin, who let us record at TED.

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Paul Dickinson: Oh, wow. Yeah, what a great venue.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: Jonathan Mallow, I mean, amazing. Thank you so much for that. Arlo Brady, likewise, at Goals House. And we were there several times and we did a bit of recording. The team at Amazon, Megan McClafferty in particular, who helped us with promoting the podcast on Amazon. Juanita Silva, who joined us for the first week to help with socials and other things.

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Christiana Figueres: And Liam and Rosie, who have been extraordinary helping us with socials.

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Paul Dickinson: And others that we've no doubt forgotten because there's so many people involved in all of this. Many, many people in the Global Optimism team who helped me in times of crisis.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: Yeah, including NET, you know who you are.

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Christiana Figueres: Oh, yes. And, oh my gosh, who does the biggest thank you go to? Our listeners themselves.

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Tom Rivett-Carnac: Everyone for listening.

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Paul Dickinson: And the tens of thousands of people who have engaged with us on social media. So thank you so much for that. It's been huge.

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Christiana Figueres: So that's a wrap.

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Paul Dickinson: Bye. Speak to you next week.